If you read our predictions every week – and we hope you do – you’ve no doubt noticed that they often sound the same. There’s a reason for that: Most teams play Northwestern the same way.
This week will be no different. Just listen to what Minnesota head coach Tracy Claeys had to say about his defensive game plan during his press conference earlier this week.
What concerns him about Northwestern? “Well, it's control the running game part of it. We got to make sure that they don't have a big day running the football, and then keep the ball in front of us on the passing game.”
How has Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson improved this year? “…He's definitely played better here as the season went on, you know, but it all starts with the running back.”
How about stopping Austin Carr on third down? “I know they won't have to throw to them (if we don’t) stop the running back. That's where we'll concentrate first.”
What is your identity as a team? “I mean now, you got to stop the run, you know. The Jackson kid is where it all starts.”
Do you get the feeling that the Gophers will be focused on stopping Jackson? Coaches are notoriously guarded about their game plans, but Claeys did everything but diagram defenses for the media this week.
Of course, none of this is exactly a secret. Minnesota is about as predictable as the outcome of a Harlem Globetrotters game. They are going to play tough, hard-nosed defense and make you earn every yard; they are going to run the ball early and often; and if you can contain that running game, they are going to struggle throwing the ball. It’s what they do. The Gophers are like Wisconsin Lite.
So stop me if you’ve heard this before, but a key for Northwestern will be for Thorson to make plays in the passing game, particularly early in the game. Minnesota is going to come out zeroed in on Jackson like Chris Christie on an éclair. Thorson is going to have to complete some throws to make those safeties drop back away from the line of scrimmage so that No. 21 has some room to run.
And defensively, you can bet that Northwestern is going to be just as dialed in on Minnesota’s feature back, No. 1, Rodney Smith. The Wildcats’ M.O. will be to stop Smith and the ground game and force Mitch Leidner to beat them through the air. It may seem like it’s Leidner’s eighth year in Minneapolis, but he still struggles with the pass. If Northwestern can bottle up the Gophers’ ground attack, it should win the game. It’s that simple.
As usual there are a couple caveats to that blanket statement. The Wildcats can’t get off to a slow start like they did against Purdue last week and Michigan State last month. Minnesota is a team that can bleed the clock and squeeze the life out of an opponent with its ground game. Northwestern will also have to take care of the football - the Gophers lead the Big Ten with 21 forced turnovers.
This Minnesota team is better on both lines of scrimmage than the unit that got whitewashed, 27-0, in Evanston last season. But the Gophers’ 7-3 record is a bit of a mirage. Their wins are against Oregon State (2-8), Indiana State (FCS) and Colorado State (5-5), as well as Big Ten foes Maryland (5-5), Rutgers (2-8), Illinois (3-7) and Purdue (3-7). There’s not a winning record in the bunch.
And while the game is in Minneapolis on Saturday, that may be a positive for the road-warrior Wildcats. They've won seven of their last nine true road games away from Evanston over the last two seasons, including three of four this year.
The bottom line is simple: if Thorson and the defensive front seven do their jobs, the Cats will get their sixth win to become bowl-eligible.
The pick: Northwestern 24 Minnesota 21
