By now, you know just about everything there is to know about this Pinstripe Bowl matchup between Northwestern and Pittsburgh.

We’ve done a Q&A with Chris Leak of Panther-Lair.com, we broke down the offense, defense and special teams, we looked at the numbers head-to-head and we’ve written about how the Wildcats will have their hands full with the Panthers.

So the time for analysis is over. Who will win this game, and why? Here’s our take.

Offense: Everyone is talking about Northwestern exploiting Pitt’s 127th-ranked pass defense, but, contrary to public opinion, Justin Jackson and Northwestern’s running game will be the key in this one. The Wildcats can’t beat the Panthers in a shootout. They need a big day out of No. 21 to eat yards and the clock and, maybe most importantly, keep that high-scoring Pitt offense that averages 42.3 points per game on the sideline. If The Ballcarrier has a big day, the Wildcats may be able to pull out a win.

Defense: Northwestern will focus on stopping James Conner and the running game and make the very efficient but not overly explosive Nathan Peterman beat them through the air. The goal for the secondary: keep everything in front of you, make tackles when someone catches the ball and force Pittsburgh to snap the ball 10-plus times to score. In short, make them earn every point. The Wildcat defense executed a very similar game plan very well in a 24-20 loss in October to Ohio State, which is the only Big Ten offense that scored more than Pittsburgh did this season.

Intangibles: Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi called Northwestern “the best 6-6 team in the country,” which is intended as a compliment, albeit a somewhat backhanded one. But he has a point. The Northwestern team we saw in October that beat Iowa, Michigan State and Indiana and gave Ohio State all it could handle in the Shoe can play with just about anyone. The flat Northwestern team that opened and closed the season, however, cannot. Which one shows up on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium?

The Skinny: This is, as usual, a tough game to call. While on the surface it seems like the odds are stacked against the Wildcats, they may have a better shot than many people think. Given a month to prepare, Mike Hankwitz’s defense will be up to the challenge and hold the Panthers below their season average. If the offense stays balanced and cashes in on its opportunities in the red zone, the Wildcats can pull this one out. It’s just a hunch, but we’ve got Northwestern delivering a belated Christmas gift.

The pick: Northwestern 33 Pittsburgh 31