After winning two straight Big Ten games on the road, Northwestern comes home to Ryan Field looking to extend its winning streak against Indiana.
Will the Wildcats capture a victory on Homecoming to continue their dark horse run in the Big Ten West, or will the Hoosiers snap their own two-game losing streak and derail Northwestern's run?
Our football writers Macray Poidomani and Louie Vaccher give their takes in this week's edition of cross-talk.
Macray: Well, who could've expected that offensive explosion last week? After the Illinois State game, I wasn't sure the 'Cats would score 54 points in the next 4 games, let a lone against Michigan State. It has been great to see Clayton Thorson progress, Justin Jackson continue to star, and Austin Carr emerge as one of the best receivers in all of college football.
Indiana presents an interesting challenge for the Cats. Though they come in with a 3-3 record, they were one stop away from beating Nebraska and they were one score away from beating an underrated Wake Forest squad.
Urban Meyer has stated that Indiana's defense is better than Oklahoma's defense. Pat Fitzgerald has also been complimentary of the Indiana defense. What are some key match ups that you are looking forward to seeing this weekend? Do you expect to see any changes to Northwestern's game plan?
Louie: Yes, it’s strange to see that in the Big Ten rankings Indiana’s scoring defense (9th) ranks higher than its scoring offense (11th). The Hoosiers rack up 433.5 yards per game but are only scoring 25.3 because, like Northwestern just a few weeks ago, they didn’t execute very well in the red zone.
Still, Indiana’s offense worries me. Unlike Iowa and Michigan State, they are potentially a much more balanced team that can hurt you on the air with Richard Lagow or on the ground with Devine Redding. Plus, the secondary has to be much better than it was last week, when the Wildcats gave up two LONG touchdown passes. Lagow is the No. 2 passer in the Big Ten and Mitchell Paige and Ricky Jones are both dangerous receivers. It may seem counter-intuitive, but I think it will be key for Northwestern to stop Redding and then get pressure on Lagow on passing downs. That’s one aspect of NU’s defense that is just tearing it up right now, with 10 sacks in the last two games.
What do you think Northwestern’s keys will be on the offensive side of the ball?
Macray: I was thinking the same thing about the secondary, but it should be noted that one of the long touchdowns was a little fluky. Godwin Igwebuike was right there on the coverage and had tipped the pass before R.J. Shelton caught it. I'll chalk that one up to bad luck. But the point still rings true that the secondary needs to step up. I've seen Lagow a couple of time this year and have been super impressed. It will be interesting to see if Ifeadi Ogdenibo, Joe Gaziano & Co. are able to rattle him into making bad decisions.
On the offensive side of the ball, I don't think there is any mystery into what the Wildcats are going to do; Justin Jackson will be carrying the ball. Indiana is allowing 166.7 yards per game on the ground and 4.1 yards per rush. Though they have some team speed on defense, Northwestern has the edge in this matchup with their superior running game. I would expect Jackson to get 30+ carries again and ground/pound the Indiana defense into submission. With regard to the aerial attack, at some point a team is going to (rightfully) double-cover Austin Carr. This might be Indiana this week. If that is the case, maybe we will continue to see Flynn Nagel's development in the passing game. He had an explosive touchdown last week and is a huge threat in the return game consistently, but one of these weeks I expect him to explode in the passing game.
How do you see this shaking out? Do you have any picks to click?
Louie: I agree with you. I think Jackson will earn his nickname once again. If Thorson continues to be efficient in the passing game, that will open things up for Jackson on the ground. He had 34 carries against Michigan State and 60 in the last two. If he once again gets north of 30 carries, Northwestern will be in good shape. When the Wildcats are balanced, they can be a potent offense, as the Hawkeyes and Spartans can attest.
Northwestern released its two-deep yesterday, and starting cornerback Trae Williams is listed as doubtful. That is a bit concerning for an already banged-up secondary. Northwestern will most likely go with Montre Hartage and Alonzo Mayo as starters if he can’t play, and we may see true freshman Rod Campbell or corner-turned wide receiver-turned back to corner Marcus McShepard. At least Kyle Queiro returned last week to give the back half a little more stability.
Still, I like Northwestern in this one. Indiana has lost two in a row and three of its last four, and that sole win, over Michigan State three weeks ago, has lost a lot of luster. Even though Indiana is a battle-tested team that has played some pretty tough competition, the Wildcats are a hot team riding a wave of confidence right now. I don’t see the Hoosiers crashing their party. The pick: Northwestern 31 Indiana 23.
Macray: Homecoming weekend will not be spoiled by the Hoosiers as I expect the Cats to be victorious. As we have both mentioned, the Cats will hitch on ride on Jackson and wear down the Indiana defense. While I am a bit worried about NU's defense, specifically the lack of depth at the cornerback position, the Northwestern offense should be able to consistently move the ball and control the clock, keeping the ball away from Lagow.
When it comes to momentum factors, I completely agree. This is a hot Northwestern team that is playing with a lot of confidence and they are firing on all cylinders right now. Even though Indiana played Ohio State and Nebraska tough, at the end of the day those were both losses and this team does not have momentum coming into the game. The pick: Northwestern 35 Indiana 17.
