Northwestern travels to East Lansing on Saturday to take on a reeling Michigan State squad that looks to be a far cry from the Spartans that won the Big Ten and made the playoffs last season.
Will the Wildcats carry over the momentum from their big win at Iowa, coming off of a bye week? Or will Michigan State find its identity and halt its three-game losing streak?
WildcatReport football writers Louie Vaccher and Macray Poidomani discuss the matchup and make their picks.
Louie: It’s funny how much my outlook on this game has changed. Just a few weeks ago, this seemed like a certain loss. Then Northwestern found itself an offense and put together its best game of the season – by far – to knock off Iowa. Then Michigan State got whacked at home by BYU to drop its third straight game. Now, suddenly, the Wildcats have a shot, maybe even a good one, to post their second straight Big Ten win.
There is something terribly wrong in East Lansing this season. Ranked 12th in the preseason, the Spartans were thought to be contenders in the Big Ten East. But they’re 0-2 in conference and look like a team in disarray. Coach Mark Dantonio held a competition for the starting quarterback job in practice this week. That’s a sign of a desperate team searching for answers if I’ve ever seen one. They still have a talented roster, but Northwestern could be catching this team at just the right time.
How do you think Northwestern matches up with Michigan State?
Macray: There is certainly something rotten up in East Lansing. Between a variety of injuries to key defensive players, including LB Riley Bullough and DT Raequan Williams, and uncertainty at QB, it is clear that this is not the typical MSU team that would strike fear in Northwestern's heart.
When it comes to match ups, I am especially excited to see what Northwestern's offense can do against the hobbled MSU defense.
Michigan State has allowed 45.2% of third downs to be converted and they are getting beat badly in the time of possession game. This bodes well for an NU offense that is starting to hit its stride. Justin Jackson should be able to run all over the Spartans, especially if Bullough misses his fourth straight game. If NU has success in the running game, it should give Thorson room to get the ball to Austin Carr.
As for the match up with the 'Cats defense, I'm curious as to who will actually trot out and play the majority of snaps at QB for the Spartans. Fifth-year senior Tyler O'Connor has failed to move the ball effectively on offense, giving opportunities to both Damion Terry and Brian Lewerke. The offense as a whole has been abysmal at converting third downs (33.3%) and have inconsistent at best over the past couple of weeks. This plays right into NU's hands, as a good QB could probably take advantage of NU's inexperience as DB. The typical mark of a good MSU offense, a bruising running game, has been largely absent over the past weeks, all losses for MSU. I'd expect MSU to try to run the ball, which I think bodes well for the 'Cats with Jaylen Prater and The Franchise up the middle.
What do you think will be some of the keys to the game?
Louie: I think you're right that Northwestern will have to be balanced to succeed, but I think it will be the other way around -- the Wildcats will have to throw to set up the run. I expect the Spartans to play their strong safety closer to the line to take away Jackson and force Thorson to throw, like just about everyone else has. If Thorson has some success, they will take that extra man out of the box and Jackson will have room to roam.
I talked to Hondo Carpenter, host of Spartan Nation Radio, about the quarterback competition, and he fully expects O'Connor to be the starter. Regardless of who wins the job, Michigan State's problems go beyond who is under center. The MSU offense has been about as bad as Northwestern's, pre-Iowa. They are averaging just 21.0 points per game. Defensively, I think the Cats will focus on stopping the run and force O'Connor -- or whoever is getting the majority of snaps -- to throw the ball to beat them. Sound familiar? If the Cats can put anywhere close to the pressure on O'Connor that they did on Iowa's C.J. Beathard, Michigan State is going to have a difficult time scoring points. MSU has also turned the ball over nine times and rank 13th in the Big Ten in turnover margin, so the Cats may be able to get a turnover or two.
So, how do you see this game unfolding? Who gets the win?
Macray: Interesting that you think the pass will set up the run. You know I've been watching Thorson's progress closely and I'd love to see him continue to find Austin Carr.
When it comes to predicting the game, it completely depends on what Northwestern team decides to show up. Will we get a defense that pressures O'Connor (or whomever) into making mistakes? Will the offensive line hold up, allowing Thorson to find open receivers and opening up holes for Justin Jackson?
Fortunately, I think coming off a big win and then getting a week to heal is exactly what the Cats need. Michigan State comes into this game limping (metaphorically and literally) while the Cats are gliding in. I expect Jackson to run wild with MSU weak up the middle, allowing Thorson to continue to find Carr. Defensively, I think Ifeadi Ogdenibo and company will tee off on O'Connor, never allowing him to get comfortable . I would not be surprised if he throws multiple picks to the Northwestern secondary. Better check Godwin Igwebuike's Twitter before the game. Pick: Northwestern 24 Michigan State 14.
What do you think will end up taking place in East Lansing?
Louie: I’m with you on this one, Macray. I think Northwestern is catching Michigan State at the right time. But it all depends on which Northwestern team takes the field, as you point out: the one that looked so impressive against Iowa, or the one that was physically manhandled by Illinois State. My bet is more of the former.
The Wildcats’ offense has been on an upward trajectory over the last three games. They made big plays against Duke, racked up a lot of yards against Nebraska (but they turned the ball over and committed big mistakes to kill drives) and were a model of efficiency against Iowa. Thorson, once again, will be the real key here. If he can be efficient and smart, taking what the defense gives him and throwing the ball away when there’s nothing there (he did a great job of that against Iowa), the offense should be able to score enough points to win.
The defense, if it again rushes the passer like it did against Iowa, will give the Spartans fits and make points tough to come by. If there’s one area I’m worried about, it’s special teams. Michigan State doesn’t really have anyone that scares you in the return game, but every kick or punt was an adventure against Iowa. Let’s hope that the Wildcats used the bye week to shore up their kick coverage.
So I’m going to go ahead and make the prediction I’d never thought I would at the beginning of the season: a win in East Lansing. The Wildcats posted a W the last time they were up there, in 2012, and they have been nails in Big Ten road games over the last two seasons, winning their last four. I say they notch their fifth straight. Pick: Northwestern 27 Michigan State 21.
