Ironically, it's Northwestern that rides a three-game winning streak into Ohio Stadium on Saturday, while No. 6 Ohio State is trying to avoid two consecutive losses.
How will the Wildcats fare in trying to win in Columbus for the first time since 1971, when Richard Nixon was in the White House? Our football writers Macray Poidomani and Louie Vaccher discuss the game and offer their predictions.
Louie: Well, Macray, now we get to see how good this Northwestern team is. Nothing will test the Wildcats mettle like a trip to The Big Horseshoe to take on No. 6 Ohio State.
I’m sure you remember the last time these two teams played, on Oct. 5, 2013, when ESPN College GameDay was in town and the then-No. 16 Cats came within a few inches on a fourth-quarter fourth down from having a real shot of knocking off the, ironically, No. 6 Buckeyes. Since that night, Northwestern is 20-19 while Ohio State is 39-5 with a national championship.
The Buckeyes lost their first game of the season last week, and a lot of fans think that means that they will be ticked off and looking to take revenge on the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald pooh-poohed the idea this week, saying that would have no impact on the outcome – though he did allow that a loss could cause them to focus more in practice, and the way a team practices is the biggest factor in a team’s performance on Saturday.
So where do you stand on the whole team-looking-to-avenge-a-loss question? I tend to side more with Fitz. I think that emotion won’t last much past the kickoff on Saturday. As usual, it will come down to execution.
Macray: It is hard to believe that it's been three years since that game. That was easily one of the highlights of my college experience, as that was my freshman year and the atmosphere in Ryan Field was unparalleled.
Sometimes I think about what would have changed had Northwestern won that game. It was a program-changing moment that, unfortunately, did not go Northwestern's way.
I am in the middle when it comes to the "ticked off revenge" game. Knowing a decent amount of NU players, after the team loses there is definitely a ticked off nature in players and you can tell the difference. After all, these are some of the most competitive people and nobody really enjoys losing. That being said, these guys truly want to win every week and I don't think their preparation changes after a loss. Maybe they have a tough week of practice and it gets them focused, but I don't think OSU's loss to Penn State is the difference in this matchup.
What could be the difference in the match up, however, is how Northwestern will deal with J.T. Barrett. Barrett has struggled to throw the ball consistently this year, but he remains one of the most dangerous players in college football. The good news for the Cats is that this group of OSU receivers is not the elite crew that it has been in years passed (Michael Thomas, Devin Smith and Braxton Miller, to name a few). They have struggled to get separation, which often leaves Barrett throwing to his running back or running himself. The Cats catch a break here, as their depleted DB's would likely not be able to hang with an elite crew.
Where Barrett can really hurt NU is with his legs. Penn State was able to bottle him up, holding him to 26 yards on 17 carries, but he hurt Wisconsin badly with his legs (92 yards and 2 TDs). My guess is that NU will use Anthony Walker Jr. as a spy against Barrett. Ohio State also has two extremely talented running backs that double as threats in the passing game. Both Curtis Samuel and Noah Brown represent major mismatches for the NU defense. Nate Hall is starting at SAM and Joe Jones is backing him up. Both will have their work cut out for them. The linebackers' performance will dictate the game.
How do you see the NU offense matching up with the OSU?
Louie: I agree that Barrett poses the greatest threat to NU's defense. We all saw what Tommy Armstrong did against the Wildcats, and Barrett is a better, more consistent quarterback. Northwestern's pass rush has been fantastic the last few games, but this week the defensive ends and outside rushers will also have to keep Barrett in the pocket. If he gets outside of contain, he can kill them.
Northwestern's offense has been a completely different animal these last three games, averaging more than 30 points per game. But this week will be, by far, its biggest test, against a defense allowing just 14.4 points per game. I think Clayton Thorson will again be the key. Ohio State will focus on containing Justin Jackson the ground game, and you can be sure that they'll also be watching No. 80. I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State came out with safeties close to the line and playing press coverage on the corners. They will try to take away the underneath stuff to see if Thorson can beat them down the field in passing situations, gambling that their pass rushers will find Thorson before Thorson finds an open man. Look for Northwestern to combat that by trying to use rubs, formations and motion to try to get matchups they like -- like a linebacker on Austin Carr, for example. Thorson has to make quick throws, and if his first couple reads aren't there he has to get rid of the ball. It's also important for Northwestern to get decent yardage on first downs so that they don't find themselves in third-and-long very often.
I think the greatest concern on Saturday is the offensive line. They've been playing much better over these last few weeks, but even though they are improved they haven't faced a front like Ohio State's. The fear is that they will be physically overpowered. And if that happens, they will be in a very difficult situation.
I think it also bears mentioning that special teams will also be critical for Northwestern. Field position figures to play a key role, and the longer the field they give Ohio State to drive the better. If the Cats make any big mistakes -- they've had punts blocked each of the last two weeks -- it's curtains.
So we've analyzed the game. Now it's time to make our picks. How do you see the game going?
Macray: I see Thorson struggling against the Ohio State secondary, which will majorly inhibit the Northwestern offense. While he has certainly grown over the past three games, he has not faced a secondary of this caliber. I'm especially interested to see how Carr will perform against elite secondary opponents. If he can't get open, especially on third down, NU is in trouble. The problems will be manifested by OSU's pass rush, which I'm not sure Northwestern can contain. Overall, NU will struggle to put up points.
On the defensive side, I actually think NU can hold down Barrett and the passing game. The running game will do NU in, though, especially Curtis Samuel. I don't know if NU can match up athletically with him, as he can simply outrun the defense.
In the end, I think OSU comes out on top in this one. NU is rightfully playing confident and the game will certainly be closer than I thought it would be a couple weeks ago. But at the end of the day, there is a reason OSU is ranked where it is. Pick: Ohio State 28 Northwestern 14.
Louie: I look at it this way. Northwestern last week played a tremendous first half in building a 24-3 lead against Indiana, about as good as they are capable of playing, in my opinion. If they plays four quarters like that, they might have a shot at pulling off a monumental upset but they’ll still need some help in terms of turnovers from the Buckeyes.
I think the Cats will make it interesting for a while if they get off to a good start. But Ohio State is just a little too fast, a little too strong and a little too deep. Pick: Ohio State 31 Northwestern 17.
