Northwestern's W-L record far outweighs its NFL Draft record

Saturday was a sobering day for Northwestern fans.

It was Day 3 of the 2018 NFL Draft, covering rounds 4-7. Justin Jackson, the school's all-time rushing leader and one of the best players to ever wear purple, figured to get picked somewhere in the middle rounds, most likely in the fourth or fifth, many reasoned.

Yet pick after pick rolled by on Saturday and Jackson still remained on the board. Kickers, punters and even an Australian rugby player who had never played a down of football in his life were chosen. Yet Jackson, who rushed for 5,440 yards to rank 11th all-time in NCAA history and is one of just nine players to ever post four 1,000-yard seasons, wasn't taken.

How could that be?, fans wondered. Jackson had performed well at the NFL Combine, posting a 4.52 40-yard dash and a 38.5-inch vertical leap. His game tape surely spoke for itself.

Finally, at pick 251 in the seventh round, just five picks before Mr. Irrelevant went with the final choice in the draft, the Los Angeles Chargers selected Justin Jackson.

Of course, that meant that none of the other Wildcats hoping to hear their names called were selected.

Safety Godwin Igwebuike, who was invited to the Combine along with Jackson, wasn't selected and signed as an undrafted free agent with Tampa Bay. Defensive tackle Tyler Lancaster, a three-year starter and one of the strongest players in college football, went as a UFA to Green Bay. Linebacker Warren Long (Seattle), safety Kyle Queiro (Dallas), center Brad North (Baltimore) and superback Garrett Dickerson (Cleveland) also signed as free agents.

Jackson's low pick and the omission of Igwebuike and Lancaster shouldn't have come as a surprise. Just last year, Wildcat Austin Carr, who led the Big Ten in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches, couldn't get his name called.

Northwestern has accomplished much in recent years, including producing 10-win seasons in three of the last six seasons. But in terms of producing NFL talent, the Wildcats lag far behind their Big Ten brethren.

Over the last 10 drafts, Northwestern has had just 12 players selected. That's lower than all but one school in the Big Ten: Minnesota, with 11. The Wildcats even rank behind schools that have usually struggled on the field, including Illinois (22), Rutgers (21), Maryland (18), Indiana (14) and Purdue (13).

Yet when you look at the team's record and on-field accomplishments, Northwestern gets the best bang for its buck in terms of NFL talent - or lack thereof.

While the Wildcats rank 13th in the Big Ten in terms of NFL draft picks, they rank seventh in overall winning percentage during that time (.602), better than even Michigan (.583), which produced 34 draft picks during that 10-year period, 22 more than NU.

The table below shows Big Ten schools ordered by the number of draft picks produced over the last 10 years. It includes the highest round a player was selected, as well as the overall won-lost record, bowl game appearances and 10-win seasons during that span.

Let's point out that NFL draft picks are not a strong overall indicator of the success of a college program. Whether or not a players wind up playing on Sundays has has very little to do with how well they perform at the college level (see: Fitzgerald, Pat). So there is not a direct correlation between producing NFL talent and producing college victories.

Still, there are some interesting findings when you compare Northwestern to the rest of the Big Ten:

- Northwestern doesn't get a whole lot of NFL-caliber talent. This shouldn't come as a shock. Northwestern has always been a developmental program that takes three-star kids and molds them into productive college players over time. Still, seeing the Wildcat rank below Rutgers, Indiana and Purdue raises some eyebrows.

- Northwestern not only hasn't had many players taken, the ones that have been selected have gone lower than any other school's. The highest a Wildcat has been picked over the last 10 years was the fourth round (Corey Wooton and Mike Kafka in 2010, Ibraheim Campbell in 2015 and Dean Lowry in 2016). Eleven schools have had a first rounder, and every school but NU has had one go as high as the second round.

- Looking at the schools that rank 8th through 14th in the league in producing NFL draftees, Northwestern is the only program with a winning record and the only one to produce a 10-win season in that span - and the Cats did it three times. They also appeared in eight bowl games; only five schools in the entire conference appeared in more.

- Northwestern has been neck-and-neck with Iowa on the field over the last decade, winning six of the last 10 meetings. But the Hawkeyes have produced more than three times the NFL draft picks in that span (37 to 12). Iowa has a slight edge over Northwestern in overall winning percentage (.631 to .602) and bowls (9 to 8), but the Cats have had one more 10-win season (3 to 2).

- As expected, Ohio State is the 800-pound gorilla in terms of producing NFL talent. The Buckeyes produced five times more NFL draft picks than Northwestern (60 to 12). In 2015, in fact, Ohio State had 12 players drafted, equaling NU's grand total over a 10-year period. The Buckeyes' 15 first-rounders are far and away the most in the conference. It stands to reason, then, that the Buckeyes also have the most outright or shared titles (4), highest winning percentage (.842) and 10-win seasons (9) in the league.

- Michigan State gets a pretty return on its NFL talent, as well. The Spartans have won or shared three Big Ten titles in the last decade while ranking just seventh in draft picks, with 26. The Spartans are also tied for second in bowl appearances (9) and rank third in 10-win seasons (7).

- Illinois may be the worst in terms of getting the most out of their NFL talent. The Illini's 22 NFL picks are eighth-most in the Big Ten, yet they've won just .358 of their games, more than only Purdue and Indiana, and appeared in only three bowls, better than only Indiana.