Question: Will NU win over or under 4.5 games in 2022?

First in a series of stories looking at some of the questions facing Northwestern heading into the 2022 season.

There isn't much confidence in sports books about Northwestern this season. That's to be expected for a team that went 3-9 in 2021 and still doesn't have a clear-cut answer at the most important position on the field.

Most gambling sites have the over/under for the Wildcats at 4.5 games. So we went to our crack staff and asked them if they would bet on Northwestern to win at least five games in 2022.

Not surprisingly, we had a split decision. Here are our answers.

Northwestern is a tough team to predict in 2022. As poorly as things went in 2021, the defense showed signs of life over the second half of the season, and some talented young players and transfers are poised to step into bigger roles. It's easy to see them putting the pieces together and going over the 4.5 win total, but it's equally easy to see similar issues sending the Cats to another long, disappointing fall.

The question, as has become routine in Evanston, is at quarterback. If either redshirt freshman Brendan Sullivan or redshirt junior Ryan Hilinksi can take the starting job and be even an average Big Ten quarterback, the Cats have a pretty good chance to go over. If the quarterback position is a black hole once again, Northwestern is not going to win more than four games.

Looking at the schedule, NU is paying Southern Illinois and Miami (OH) to come to Evanston and play them, so one can hope Northwestern can handle their business in those two games. In-state FCS and MAC opponents have been known to give Northwestern trouble in the past, but those games stand out as very winnable for Northwestern.

Mixed in with some lopsided defeats Northwestern did have a pair of one-possession losses last season, to Duke and Iowa. Both teams are on the schedule again, and an improved Northwestern team would have a reasonable shot of making enough plays to get over the top.

Even if NU reverses their fortunes in those two games and handles the "buy games," they're still only at four wins. Finding additional wins becomes tougher. Illinois will be a very inexperienced team in 2022 after losing one of the largest senior classes in college football. Northwestern simply turned in an embarrassing effort against the Fighting Illini last season. It didn't seem like the players wanted to be there, and that was reflected in the final score. If the Cats show up to the 2022 edition of the rivalry with a little more fight, it's possible to see them beating a young Illinois team at home. Additionally, games against Purdue and Maryland are certainly winnable on paper, but NU will face both those teams on the road and Taulia Tagovailoa and Aidan O'Connell figure to join Ohio State's CJ Stroud among the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten.

Again, it's all about the quarterback. If Sullivan or Hilinski can be middle-of-the-pack Big Ten signal callers, there's a good chance Northwestern will find themselves in a bowl game come the holiday season. With a couple breaks, a strong, eight-win season is not out of the question. If the quarterback play actively hurts the team for the second-consecutive season, then Northwestern is going to be really hard to watch.

With that said, I'm taking the under. I really, truly want to to be wrong, but nothing Northwestern has done over the last five years gives me any confidence that they have the ability to get a quarterback ready to play.

I’m not looking at the line of 4.5 games with disdain or surprise. It makes sense for Las Vegas and other oddsmakers to be down on the Cats after a 3-9 campaign without major changes to the coaching staff or roster.

However, with an experienced offensive line and a talented stable of running backs, I think the Cats will hit the over.

Looking at Northwestern’s schedule, I see three games that should be locked in as wins: Southern Illinois and Miami (OH) at home in Weeks 3 and 4, and Maryland on the road in Week 8. There are four more games I would classify as toss ups, the first and last pair of games for the Cats: Nebraska in Ireland in Week 0, Duke at home in Week 2, Purdue on the road in Week 12 and Illinois at home in Week 13.

The Cats just need to split those toss ups, and there are plenty of iterations of 2-2 there. A split and executing their three locks will have them clear of 4.5.

A more optimistic Cats fan eyeing a bowl berth could see 3-1, or throw the trip to Minnesota in Week 11 into the mix and hope for 3-2.

But after 2021 I’m not that fan. My picks from the toss ups are a win hosting Duke after the early bye week, and the ‘Cats closing out the year by exacting vengeance from Illinois.

Let me preface this by saying two things. One, I don't bet. And two, if I did bet, I sure the heck wouldn't bet on Northwestern, a team that I am biased about and one that may be the most difficult team in the nation to predict year-to-year.

Just look at their record over the last four years: 9-5, 3-9, 7-2, 3-9. That's a gambler's nightmare, and as good a reason as any not to lay any prop bets on the Wildcats.

All that said, I'm going with the over on this one. With a couple breaks, I can see Northwestern going 6-6 and making a bowl game.

Looking at the schedule, there are only a couple "sure" wins -- or as close to sure as Northwestern gets: Southern Illinois and Miami (Ohio). Conversely, I only see a couple sure losses -- Ohio State and Penn State. I know plenty of people will view Wisconsin and Iowa as sure Ls, too, but the Cats are 6-1 against the Badgers in Evanston this century and have won three straight in Iowa City. Don't be surprised if they steal one of those.

The rest of the games are essentially toss-ups. Take the first two games: Nebraska in Dublin and Duke in Evanston. The Cats could easily go 2-0 or 0-2. So let's call it 1-1. Then, the Cats bag those two Ws against the Salukis and the Redhawks. We're at three wins already.

Now, all you need to do is find two more. I'll go with Maryland on the road -- the Cats usually play better away from home, anyway -- and Illinois at home in a revenge game against a team that lost a boatload of seniors.

NU is now at five wins and I have won my bet. But I think NU may snag one more W, most likely against Minnesota or Purdue, but maybe, as I said earlier, against Iowa or Wisconsin. You never know. These are the Wildcats, after all. They'll likely lose one of the games you think they'll win, and win one you think think they'll lose.

But it really doesn't matter. I'm already counting my imaginary money.