Three things to watch tonight for Illinois vs. Northwestern

After starting the Big Ten season 3-0 for the first time since 1967-68 and earning a No. 19 national ranking, Northwestern has lost two straight road games in Big Ten play.

While the Wildcats return home to the friendly confines of Welsh-Ryan Arena tonight, their guests, No. 12 Illinois, won’t make things any easier.

Such is life in the meat grinder that is the Big Ten conference.

Northwestern (6-3, 3-2 Big Ten) will break out its black Gothic uniforms for tonight’s matchup with the Illini (8-3, 4-1). But we’ll take a look here at three questions outside of laundry that will impact the contest.

How will the Cats play Cockburn?

Big men have hurt Northwestern in the last two losses.

The Wildcats did pretty well against conference leading scorer Luka Garza last week, limiting to 18 points, 11 below his average going into the game. The problem was that doubling him in the post every time he touched the ball enabled Iowa’s sharpshooters to get open looks at 3s, and they knocked them down. CJ Fredrick and Jordan Bohannon scored a combined 43 points on 9-of-16 shooting in a 87-72 loss.

Against Michigan on Sunday, freshman 7-footer Hunter Dickinson led all scorers with 19 points in the Wolverines 85-66 win. Head coach Chris Collins said after the game that the height of Wolverines like Dickinson, Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner bothered the Wildcats. When Northwestern doubled guys in the post, Eli Brooks drained four of five 3-pointers on his way to 14 points.

Illinois sophomore center Kofi Cockburn, another 7-footer who averages 16.9 points per game and is the Big Ten’s leading rebounder with 9.9 per contest, presents a similar challenge. Northwestern will have to pick its poison.

Will the Wildcats try to go one-on-one against Cockburn in the post and risk him going off for 30 points and fouling out their front court? Or will they double him and give up open shots on the perimeter against an Illinois team leading the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (41.8%)? Will we see more zone in an effort to protect the middle? Will we see Ryan Young get more minutes as a traditional big man against Cockburn, or will Pete Nance play more as a stretch-5 and try to draw him away from the middle?

That’s the chess match to watch in this one.

Will Northwestern’s offense get back on track?

The Wildcats want to run-and-gun offensively, but since Big Ten play started teams have managed to slow them down and play them in the half-court, where they’re not as explosive.

The Cats are coming off their lowest offensive output of the season, scoring just 66 points against the Wolverines. They haven’t scored more than 72 points in any of their last three contests, two of which ended in losses.

Illinois, however, can run with the Wildcats. They are the second-highest scoring team in the Big Ten at 85.4 points per game, and they have guards like Ayo Dosunmu, Andre Curbelo and Trent Frazier who are more than happy to push the pace and play in the open floor.

If Northwestern is to pull off the upset against the Illini, 3-point shooting will be key. Northwestern ranks third in the Big Ten in both 3-point shooting (41.1%) and 3-pointers per game (9.6).

The Wildcats will have to find ways to get Miller Kopp open looks. The sweet-shooting junior averages a blistering 54.3% from long-range – better than his average inside the arc – but he is third on the team in terms of volume because teams try to take him away on the perimeter.

Can Audige check Dosunmu?

Illinois has maybe the best inside-out punch in the nation in Cockburn and Dosunmu. The sophomore guard from Chicago ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring at 23.0 points per game and his 3-point shooting – a weakness last season – has increased from 29.6% to 42.1% this season.

Dosunmu is a future lottery pick, a 6-foot-5 scorer with tremendous athleticism who can play on or off the ball. But this year, the Wildcats could have someone who can match Dosunmu’s athleticism in Chase Audige.

The transfer from William & Mary will give up an inch to Dosunmu in terms of height, but he’s a dynamic athlete with great leaping ability who could be able to hang with Dosunmu and make him work for his points.

Northwestern also has defensive stopper Anthony Gaines coming off the bench, but giving Gaines too many minutes off the bench hurts the Wildcats on the offensive end. Gaines, the team captain, has averaged 20 minutes and just 3.0 points over the least three games.

Audige’s decision-making and shot selection have been his biggest issues thus far as he acclimates himself to Big Ten play. He has the lowest shooting percentage on the team and sometimes puts up ill-advised shots that earn him a hook from Collins. He has shot 25% or less in three of the last five games.

But if he can make Dosunmu work on both ends of the floor, Audige could be a key factor in this one.