WildcatReport's Tim Chapman, a former high school football head coach, breaks down the Wildcats’ win over Nebraska.
Three takeaways
1. This team will go where the defense and Clayton Thorson take them from here on out. Northwestern’s defense hasn’t been statistically stellar, but they’ve gotten the job done when it has counted. Against Purdue, they were great, tackling in the open field and turning up the heat on David Blough. In the Michigan State game, they pressured Brian Lewerke (like they have in crunch time the previous two years), rushing him into bad throws and mistakes. This week against Nebraska, they made a key INT late and, again, made tackles in space to prevent points.
On the offensive side, when Thorson has thrown more TDs than INTs and when he’s been protected, the Wildcats have been good enough to win. The more Clayton throws the ball, the more he synchs up with the receivers and the better the potential for big plays. Just look at their last two games. Thorson threw the ball 47 times against MSU and they had four plays of over 20 yards, including three TDs. On Saturday against the Huskers, he put the ball in the air 64 times, creating seven plays of 17 yards or greater, including 21- and 61-yard TDs.
The defense will need to clamp down better against the run, but they’ve played pretty tough when they’ve needed to. Of their six INTs, four have come inside their own territory, with two of them coming in the end zone. Going against some relatively immobile QBs (like they’ll face against Wisconsin and Iowa), their front seven and pressure package should provide the support needed by their secondary.
If Northwestern is to challenge for the Big Ten West in the next four weeks, it will be because Clayton Thorson is continuing to put up big numbers (and cutting down on the INTs), and the defense is getting pressure and stops in times of necessity.
2. This O-Line is not helping the offense very much. They’re pretty much non-existent in the run game. I think we’re seeing just how good Justin Jackson and Jeremy Larkin were because since they’ve moved on, the Wildcats’ rushing attack has mustered (not including any QB runs/sacks) 121 yards on 57 carries, an average of around two yards per carry. One can argue that the play-calling lacks innovation, but when your running game puts you at third-and-6 after two carries, it’s no wonder Thorson is putting up Air-Raid numbers.
This group is struggling to block the edge, so most outside zone plays are getting stopped in their tracks or run down on angles. The “one-on-one” battles are being lost, and even the double-team mesh-blocks are moving so slowly that linebackers (who the double teams are supposed to break off and go get) are shooting through and either stopping or slowing down the run game enough to allow the rest of the gang to thwart forward movement.
The bad news here is that Wisconsin and Iowa – whom the Wildcats will have to go through to win the Big Ten West – are two of the better run defenses in the conference. The good news, however, is that Michigan (who the Cats almost beat) and Michigan State (who the Cats did beat) are tougher overall defenses than the Badgers and Hawkeyes, so there is hope that the current aerial assault will give NU a fighting chance.
The offensive line’s pass blocking has gotten a little better in the last two games. We’ve seen the effectiveness of Mick McCall’s adjustment of getting Thorson outside the pocket on Waggle passes. This allows Gs Tommy Doles or JB Butler to get out and pull, opposite the line protection, picking up any potential blitzing LBs. Still, against Nebraska’s pedestrian pass rush, Thorson was still sacked twice and hurried six times.
3. Northwestern knows how to win in OT. The Wildcats have now won five consecutive games when going past the fourth quarter. The first came in 2014, when newly anointed placekicker, Jack Mitchell knocked a 41-yard FG down the pipe (his fourth of the game) for their second consecutive victory in the series. The next three came last season, in consecutive games. They beat Iowa 17-10 after a fourth-down pass was dropped by Mackey Award nominee Noah Fant. They won again in extra frames the following week against Michigan State, when Flynn Nagel scored on a crossing route to put the Cats ahead for good and Nate Hall intercepted a panicked-heave from Lewerke to seal the victory on the following possession. NU won an unprecedented third-straight OT game against Nebraska after a Thorson plunge gave them the lead and a fourth-down swat-down by Kyle Queiro secured the win.
Saturday’s OT win marked number five in a row, when the defense-again stepped up when JR Pace intercepted an Adrian Martinez pass in the end zone to thwart the Huskers and then backup kicker Drew Luckenbaugh sealed it with a 37-yard game-winning field goal.
There is certainly something to be said about how head coach Pat Fitzgerald and his staff get the Wildcats to keep fighting, even when others have given up, and to go as hard as they can for as long as they can, all of the time. It’s the Wildcat Way.
Two questions
1. Why does this team insist on using a feature back? Since Larkin was forced to retire, we’ve seen John Moten featured in one game, and then Solomon Vault featured in two others. In each of those games, there was a 60/30 split between the feature guy and the secondary back, but it’s as if the coaches determine right from pre-game who they want to get the carries. The only game since Larkin’s departure from the lineup that the Wildcats gave the ball to more than two guys was the Michigan game, and that was their best rushing output in the last three contests. In the other two, they ran for a combined 57 yards. In other words, use your backs.
We’ve just seen glimpses of Drake Anderson and Isaiah Bowser. Fitzgerald said on Monday that he is trying to preserve the freshmen’s redshirt years by playing them in no more than four games this season, which is no doubt the reason we saw Chad Hanaoka get reps in the second half on Saturday. Fitzgerald will have to juggle his backs deftly moving forward: Anderson has three more games remaining, while Bowser has just one. Looking back, it seems almost foolish that Northwestern used him in three games to give him the ball just twice.
Look at the top five rushing teams in the conference - Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland, Illinois, and Michigan. All of them have used three backs in their repertoire. Now this isn’t to say that Northwestern has the same caliber of backs that these teams do, but they certainly have players that can be utilized. Moten, Vault, and either Anderson or Bowser - whomever the coaching staff wants to take the redshirt off of - will give the Wildcats a more complete arsenal to use and change up the pace of the game.
Conventional wisdom will tell you to find a rhythm and ride the hot hand, but when the rhythm is as electric as Hugh Downs dancing hip hop, wisdom has to take a different path.
2. Why not try some more diversity in the run game? Where is the “Wildcat” we saw with Larkin and then Lees? If we’re having trouble blocking at the point of attack, why not line up Lees, or even Moten or Vault, and throw a blocking back (James Prather, Trey Klock, Nick Mangieri) in the game to try and create a numbers advantage? At the very least it could keep the defense honest and off-guard.
Or why not incorporate the speedy slot receivers a little more in the outside/sweep game? At the end of last year, NU saw some benefits in running some fly sweeps from the speedy Jelani Roberts. Whether it’s him or Kyric McGowan, why not try to incorporate that with some purpose and practice, rather than just using it as window dressing?
We started to see a hint of that by sending Berkeley Holman in motion and then giving the ball to Moten, and it worked on the first run, as defenses had to stay honest on the outside. But Northwestern proceeded to run it two more times after that. And when they did that, the Wildcats never went to the sweep, so the set-up wasn’t even allowed to materialize.
This isn’t Alabama or Michigan, where you can run the same three plays and the defense knows what’s coming and still can’t stop it. Northwestern must be inventive. They must be diverse. They must be strategic in their approach. That will at least give them a tactical advantage in trying to breathe some life into this run game.
One thing we know
Northwestern is going to continue to be “Northwestern”. In other words, they will fight for 60 minutes for each and every W. We likely won’t see a dominant outing this year, probably not even against Rutgers on Saturday. The Wildcats will have to scratch and claw for all they can get to edge Wisconsin, Notre Dame and/or Iowa in consecutive weeks. They will also likely play close games at Minnesota, and maybe even against Illinois for the “Hat.”
Any of those aforementioned teams, however, that Northwestern is not a team they are looking forward to playing. This team is frustratingly unidentifiable - but that frustration goes both ways. It’s frustrating to Northwestern coaches and fans because they are used to seeing a solid run game, but getting nothing this year. But as they say, necessity is the mother of invention.
This just isn’t a complete team yet. The run game doesn’t exist. The offensive line is banged up, mixed up and up for grabs. Because of that, Thorson has been forced to rush through his progressions, and when he does his performance is about 50/50. In years’ past, sometimes he would try to force a throw with poor results; other times he would “turtle up” and take a sack, putting this non-explosive offense well behind the chains. This year, we see him being a little more aggressive. But, like we said, results have been about 50/50.
The Wildcats have been more inventive in the passing game and are putting up some of the best passing numbers in school history. A team that is throwing the ball like Northwestern is right now (third in the Big Ten at 320.7 ypg) is going to be in the game as long as their defense keeps them in it. The defense has not been statistically superb, but where they shine is in the red zone, where their defense has given up 17 scores in 19 attempts, but only nine of those scores have been touchdowns (53 percent, best in the Big Ten).
This is who Northwestern is. They are not dominant, but they certainly play well enough to hang around. And with their recent passing renaissance with Thorson as the pilot, this team has a shot at the title in an admittedly lackluster Big Ten West.
Best unit
The Receivers. Nine different receivers (as well as three RBs) caught a pass on Saturday in helping Thorson reach career highs with 41 completions and 455 passing yards, while throwing for a career-high tying three TDs. Flynn Nagel highlighted the bunch, but a few others did their solid part, too. Bennett Skowronek quietly hauled in six passes for 12 yards per catch. He continued to be the physical force to throw to on that needed curl/comeback route near the hash. Ramaud Chiakhiao-Bowman made a huge fourth-and-10 catch on a deep dig route, where he went up for a purposely elevated ball (see our The Skinny article on the height advantage NU had over Nebraska), used his body and boxed out the defender to make the game-extending catch when his team needed it most. Then, of course, there was JJ Jefferson, who caught the game-tying TD pass with 12 seconds left on a precisely-run pivot route, where he broke off the line to the inside, then sharply cut outside, creating separation and catching the well-timed throw from Thorson. Other receivers catching passes were Cameron Green, Riley Lees Charlie Fessler and Berkley Holman, who made his first catch as a Wildcat on an acute slant route near the end of the first quarter.
Offensive game ball
WR Flynn Nagel. The senior had the best game of his career on Saturday. His 12 catches for 220 yards and two TDs is the third-best single game performance in Northwestern history, even better than his predecessor Austin Carr, who was in attendance for Homecoming Saturday. Beyond the numbers, Nagel had a couple of catches that came after being illegally impeded by a defender in white. Nagel continues to prove he is reliable: he has caught a pass in 24 straight games and has caught at least two passes in 30 of his 36 career games for the Cats. He’s proven to be clutch, as well, as more than 50 percent of Northwestern’s third-down pass conversions the past two years have been brought in by No. 2. He’s scored a handful of touchdowns that have either brought his team within one score or put them ahead. When the game is on the line, Thorson sends it Nagel’s way.
Defensive game ball
CB Trae Williams. The junior from Ohio had his best game of the season with 10 tackles (six solo), a TFL and a strip-sack that forced a fumble that was scooped-and-scored by DE Ernest Brown, giving the Cats the lead and momentum in the second quarter. He also had a couple great open-field stops, including one in overtime against the elusive JD Spielman with a lot of green space around him. Williams boosted the confidence in this secondary, which is missing first-year phenom Greg Newsome II. A close honorable mention goes to DE Samdup Miller, who led the game with 14 tackles, including six solo stops and a combined TFL. Pace also deserves some love as his two INTs came in the end zone and at times when the Wildcats really needed them to swing momentum.
Special teams game ball
PK Drew Luckenbaugh. Here’s what makes Luckenbaugh’s performance so inspiring: when he came on to kick the first field goal of his collegiate career, he missed it. He didn’t just miss it, he shanked a knuckleball that was as ugly as it was inaccurate. And judging by his immediate reaction after putting toe to leather, he appeared to have the same feeling. That was a kick that wasted the efforts of a long drive, when Wildcats needed points. On the ensuing possession, Nebraska started at its own 32-yard line and took just five plays to go 78 yards for a touchdown, putting the Huskers up by 14. So for Luckenbaugh to come back, refocus and hit his next attempt when they really needed it, but also the game-winner in OT, made for a great ending to such a fun story on Saturday. And kudos to Fitzgerald for having the faith to go right back to him, down 10 with just over three minutes to play. We wish Charlie Kuhbander a speedy recovery, but Luckenbaugh bolstered confidence in a kicking game that has been anything but reliable this season.
Wildcat warrior
RB Chad Hanaoka. When NU announced in August that the senior walkon from Honolulu earned the honor of being awarded the celebrated No. 1 jersey number, that was really the last thing we heard from, or about, the “Flyin’ Hawaiian”. But in the fourth quarter, down by 10 and driving for dear life, No. 1 made a first-down catch, on a check-down in Thorson’s read progression, that he took for 14 yards, with most of it coming after the catch. It ignited a spark into the offense that kept the drive moving further into Nebraska territory. Shortly after, he made a couple of helpful pass pro blocks in the backfield, helping to keep the drive alive and setting up Luckenbaugh to make the first of his two important field goals. It was such a surprise to see him in such a pivotal part of the game that ABC announcers mispronounced his name wrong multiple times (han-uh-KO-uh, han-uh-OH-kuh) as the excitement heightened.
Best Wildcat moment
Jefferson’s game-tying touchdown and Luckenbaugh’s game-winning kick have gotten their share of publicity already. We’re going to go with another, more subtle play as our best moment. With 12:43 to go in the fourth quarter and trailing 28-14 after Nebraska had just scored its fourth touchdown of the game, the Wildcats had it second-and-10 from their own 39-yard line. Outside receiver Skowronek and inside receiver Nagel were to run a mesh combination, where Skowronek, on the outside, would cross the CBs face with a hard slant route, while Nagel would “rub” behind him on an outside release, running a wheel route down the sideline. Nebraska defender Aaron Williams got beat and grabbed hold of Nagel’s arm and jersey as he tried to slip by. The official threw the flag; a pressured Thorson threw the ball off his back foot and Nagel threw two defenders off of their pursuit as he raced to the endzone, throwing a wrench in Nebraska’s victory plans. It was the iconic Nagel play NU fans have grown to love - when the Purple are in crunch time, No. 2 is No. 1 for his QB and his team. This play turned the entire complexion of the game around in favor of the Wildcats.
Tim Chapman is a teacher and former Michigan high school football coach who is currently working on a book titled "ChampioN Underdog" about the 1995 Northwestern Rose Bowl team. Follow him via Twitter: @Champion_Lit. Email him at nufbhistorian@gmail.com.