Published Aug 16, 2018
Burning questions for the 2018 Wildcats
Louie Vaccher  •  WildcatReport
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Northwestern faces its share of questions heading into the 2018 season. But at least they are not the kind of questions being asked on other campuses across the Big Ten.

At Ohio State, they’re wondering whether head coach Urban Meyer will survive after how he handled domestic abuse charges against Zach Smith, a former assistant. At Maryland, they’re asking whether the allegedly abusive culture created by coach DJ Durkin contributed to the death of player Jordan McNair in May.

In light of those ugly questions, Northwestern’s inquiries about the health of quarterback Clayton Thorson seem rather insignificant.

Nevertheless, here are six burning questions facing the Wildcats as they head into their opener at Purdue on Aug. 30.


Will Clayton Thorson be ready for the opener?

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This question is, of course, the biggest one, asked more often in Evanston than whether the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians. This is one question that we will get an answer in the opener.

WildcatReport has yet to see a practice, but all reports lean toward the fifth-year senior being ready to go. Observers say that he looks comfortable, is throwing effortlessly and is moving around as if the knee isn’t hindering him. Just seven months after surgery, things have gone about as well as they could have.

Still, even if Thorson trots out with the starters at Ross-Ade Stadium, there are other questions still in play. Will he be fully mobile? Can he still be a credible enough threat as a runner to keep the defense honest? How will it affect Northwestern’s play calling? Will he trust his surgically rebuilt knee? After all, it’s one thing to elude a rush wearing a purple (no contact) jersey in practice and quite another when Purdue linebacker Markus Bailey is bearing down on you under the lights in a game.


Will the Cats be more explosive this year?

Northwestern scored 29.2 points per game last season, the most since 2012. Yet their average yards per play of 5.3 ranked 98th in the country. Furthermore, Northwestern ranked an abysmal 120th in IsoPPP, an explosiveness measure derived from determining the equivalent point value of every yard line and every play of a given game.

Yes, we know head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s mantra is “stats are for losers.” So in layman’s terms, all those numbers means the Wildcats often had to grind out their scoring drives and didn’t rip off big chunks of yardage as often as the overwhelming majority of other teams. While they produced 408 yards per game -- their most since 2011 -- it would be nice if the Wildcats could pile up those yards a little bit more easily this season.

There are plenty of signs indicating they could.

First of all, the speedy Solomon Vault returns after a year off with a lower body injury. Already the school’s all-time kick return leader with four career touchdowns, “Solo” is a potential big play waiting to happen on every kick and could set up NU’s offense on shorter fields.

While Northwestern said goodbye to all-time leading rusher Justin Jackson and his metronome-like consistency, running back Jeremy Larkin averaged an impressive 6.0 yards per carry a season ago, 1.5 more than The Ballcarrier (though on far fewer carries). Larkin is a little faster than Jackson and could hit a few more big gainers.

At receiver, Vault’s ability to stretch the field could pay dividends in the passing attack. Jelani Roberts adds big-play potential in the jet-sweep game, and quick receivers like Riley Lees, Kyric McGowan, Berkeley Holman and possibly even true freshman Jacob Jefferson could add a dimension of speed and get loose for some explosion plays this season.


Will the safety spot be solid?

Thorson’s knee and the loss of Jackson has been the focus of the media this summer, but the safety position is the one that bears the most watching. It’s difficult to lose two multi-year starters like Godwin Igwebuike and Kyle Queiro and not feel it.

Even with those two stalwarts, NU’s pass defense gave up its share of big plays in 2017 – against Wisconsin and Duke, they changed competitive games to routs. Northwestern’s defense allowed 249.5 yards per game to rank 101st in the country. Much of that can be attributed to injuries and instability at corner, but if teams had that much success with the long ball last season, you can be sure that they’ll go after NU’s deep middle this season.

Jared McGee, who has come in when the Wildcats went to a nickel defense the last two years, will start at one safety spot. The other starting job will likely go to JR Pace, who came up with a pair of interceptions in limited time last season. Behind them, however, could be a cause for concern as experience is limited. Bryce Jackson, Travis Whillock and Steven Reese, who has moved over from wide receiver, have yet to play a down of college football. Brian Bullock played in the first game of his career against Nevada last year and then suffered a season-ending injury in the same game. Roderick Campbell, who could move into McGee’s old nickel back role, played some cornerback two seasons ago as a true freshman before getting sidelined for the entire year last August.


Will the offensive line pick up where it left off?

The Wildcats’ O-line struggled mightily early in the 2017 season. You remember: offensive line coach Adam Cushing was playing musical chairs throughout camp and into the season in an effort to find the best five linemen, regardless of position. Things didn’t go well initially, as Fitzgerald pretty much pinned most of the blame for the team’s 2-3 start on Cushing's troops.

But then J.B. Butler returned at left guard, Blake Hance returned to his customary left tackle spot and Rashawn Slater emerged as a rare true freshman starter at right tackle. Once those guys settled in, they flourished and Northwestern found its running game. The Wildcats ran for 277 or more yards in each of their last three games and cracked 300 in their last two.

This year, the line returns four starters, and former starting tackle Jared Thomas will likely take the open center spot. Guard Tommy Doles, the bell cow of the unit, said that his group wants to be “a dominant offensive line” this season. With Thorson at less than 100-percent to start the year, the line will have to keep him upright and protect that knee. Coaches would also like to rely a little more on the ground game as Thorson gets back to his old self.

As Fitzgerald has said the last couple years, his teams go as far as the line takes them. This year – especially early in the season – those words may never be truer.


How good will the front seven be?

Simply put, Northwestern’s front seven was lights-out last season. The Wildcats allowed just 107.7 yards per game rushing, ninth-best in the nation (but, amazingly, just fourth in the Big Ten). They held opponents to 100 or fewer yards six times during the their eight-game winning streak to close the year. They also made a lot of big plays: their havoc rate (TFL, FF, PBU or INTs divided by total plays) of 20.6 ranked 10th in the nation. They carried the defense that carried the team.

It will be hard to top numbers like those, but this group is going to give it a shot. Up front, the Wildcats are embarrassingly strong at defensive end, where Big Ten sack leader Joe Gaziano and Samdup Miller will form potent bookends to hold the edge, while Earnest Brown could produce that quick-twitch pass rushing specialist they’ve been looking for. The key will be replacing 305-pound behemoth Tyler Lancaster, who was instrumental in occupying the A gap and keeping offensive linemen off of linebackers.

At linebacker, Freshman All-America MLB Paddy Fisher and OLB Nate Hall return as a dynamic duo that accounted for 192 tackles and 25.5 TFL last year. Both can play sideline-to-sideline, as well as penetrate the backfield. There shouldn't be a drop off with Blake Gallagher at the other starting outside spot, and in terms of depth, a position group that has been thin the last couple years is suddenly flush. Solid veteran Nate Fox is still in the mix, and both Jango Glackin and Peter McIntyre are back after missing last season due to injury.

Norhtwestern's front seven could be just as tough to run against as last season's unit. It will be interesting to see if defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz dials up more blitzes this season in an effort to make his defense even more disruptive.


Will the Cats continue to be nails in one-score games?

A lot of things seemed to go right for Northwestern last season. The Wildcats became the first team in FBS history to win three straight overtime games when they knocked off Iowa, Michigan State and Nebraska in extra time. They also went 4-0 in one-score games and are riding the longest Power Five winning streak in the nation at eight games.

It may seem like lady luck was wearing purple – especially with Riverboat Gambler Fitz going for it on fourth down more often (39 times) than any other coach in the nation. But the truth is, the Wildcats consistently did the things that win you ball games: they took care of the football and played well inside the 20s.

During their 2-3 start, the Wildcats were minus-8 in turnover margin; during their 8-0 finish they were plus-15. They were good in the red zone on offense (fifth in the Big Ten with an 88.1 percent conversion rate, just 1.7 percent behind leader Penn State) and defense (third with 73.2 percent, 2.2 percent behind leader Wisconsin).

This year’s schedule is tougher than last year's, with the first conference opener since 1984, Michigan and Michigan State as crossovers, and a non-conference game against Notre Dame in November. So Northwestern is going to need to continue its mastery of those things to win nail-biters. They'll probably have quite a few of them along the way.

Really, the Wildcats record in one-score games determines the success of their season. In 2015 they went 5-0 in one-score games and won 10 games; last year they went 4-0 and reached double-digit wins again. In between, the Wildcats went 2-3 in tight contests and finished 7-6 in 2016.