Running on empty
Northwestern’s running game is running the team into the ground.
After yet another dismal offensive performance against Penn State on Saturday, the Wildcats are now the worst rushing team in the Big Ten, averaging just 114.6 yards per game and an anemic 3.2 yards per rush. If rushing yards were flammable, Northwestern couldn’t light a match.
Northwestern’s rushing numbers seem unthinkable for a team that was one of the conference’s best just a couple years ago. In 2015, the Wildcats ranked third in the league in rushing when they averaged 188.5 yards per game and 4.1 yards per rush. So in two seasons, Northwestern’s rushing output has dropped by more than 70 yards per game – about the length of a touchdown drive – and almost one yard per carry.
The rushing statistics, as you would imagine, are even worse in the Wildcats’ three losses. Northwestern has run for 459 of their 573 yards in wins over Nevada and Bowling Green. In three losses, the Wildcats have just 114 total rushing yards, a microscopic 38 per game, partially because NCAA rushing numbers also include losses from sacks and Thorson has been sacked 16 times for 120 yards in losses over those three defeats. But to put that three-game total of 114 rushing yards in perspective, consider that running back Justin Jackson averaged 117.2 rushing yards per game all by himself just a season ago.
If you are looking for reasons Northwestern’s offense has looked so putrid the last couple weeks, look no further than the running game. Without it, the Wildcat offense is stuck in neutral.
Jackson is struggling through an undisclosed injury this season that has clearly hampered him. After running for 121 yards on 18 carries against Bowling Green on Sept. 16, the star senior needed just 108 more yards to surpass Damien Anderson as Northwestern’s all-time rushing leader. This is a running back that averaged 103.9 yards per game throughout his career. With a little luck, everyone figured, he could break the record in Madison against Wisconsin; if not, it would be nice for him to break the record at home against Penn State.
Instead, after two straight subpar games, Jackson is still 17 yards short of Anderson. He gained just 25 yards on nine carries in a 33-24 loss to Wisconsin and 66 on 16 rushes in Saturday’s 31-7 drubbing to the Nittany Lions.
Unbelievably, that 25-yard outing against Wisconsin was not Jackson’s lowest of the season. He gained just 18 yards on seven carries in the 41-17 loss to Duke on Sept. 9. So in Northwestern’s three losses, Jackson is averaging 36.3 yards per game.
Jackson is arguably the best running back Northwestern has ever had and the second best in the Big Ten, to Penn State’s dynamic Saquon Barkley. Yet he is barely making an impact this season, the victim of defensive fronts that outnumber Northwestern’s blockers and an offensive line that is often allowing defenders to swarm him before he even reaches the line of scrimmage.
It’s been a disappointing final season for Jackson as he battles back from injury. He entered the year with a chance to become just the second back in Big Ten history to record four straight 1,000-yard seasons (the other is Wisconsin’s 1999 Heisman Trophy winner, Ron Dayne).
But after five games, Jackson has some work to do in order to add his name to that exclusive list. He has run for just 339 yards on the season and is averaging 67.8 yards per game, almost 40 less than his career average and 50 less than he put out every Saturday just a year ago. Extrapolate that output to 13 games – if the Wildcats make a bowl game, which is not a given – and he would have 881.4, more than 100 yards short.
Of course, things can change as quickly as Jackson can squirt through a crease. Jackson will hopefully get healthier. The offensive line may still improve. And most importantly, the Wildcats’ schedule also lightens up considerably. Other than perhaps Michigan State, the Wildcats don’t play a team with the kind of dominant front seven that Wisconsin and Penn State feature.
Justin Jackson the Ballcarrier is the barometer for Northwestern: the Wildcats are 18-4 when Jackson runs for 100 yards in a game and, now, just 6-15 when he doesn’t. So Northwestern’s offense won’t get on track until No. 21 does.