Last year in East Lansing, Northwestern beat Michigan State 54-40. The two teams combined for 12 touchdowns, almost 1,000 yards of offense and 94 points.

On Saturday at Ryan Field, the Wildcats and Spartans probably won’t reach half that point total. A third might be more like it.

Both these teams feature strong defenses and offenses that are inconsistent at best and anemic at worst. Last week, Northwestern scored just 10 points in 60 minutes before beating Iowa 17-10 in overtime. The Spartans had three points at the six-minute mark of the fourth quarter last Saturday before scoring two touchdowns in the last 5:59 to beat Indiana 17-9. So if you’re looking for offensive firepower, steer clear of Evanston on Saturday.

WildcatReport takes a look at some key questions in this matchup and predicts the outcome.

Which team will run the football?

We know the answer to this one: neither. Both the Wildcats and Spartans will want to establish the running game, but neither is likely to be successful against defenses that know how to stop it.

Michigan State ranks second in the Big Ten in rushing defense, allowing just 93.4 yards per game. Notre Dame busted the Spartans for 182 yards, but since then they have given up 100 yards on the ground just once in four games, and that was 102 to Michigan.

Northwestern is sixth in the league, giving up 121.3 per game. The Wildcats have held their last three opponents to less than 100 yards and last four under 110. They’ve also contained some of the best rushers in the league – Wisconsin’s Johnathan Taylor, Penn State’s Saquon Barkley, Maryland’s Ty Johnson and Iowa’s Akrum Wadley – holding them all under the century mark yards.

It’s doubtful that Michigan State’s LJ Scott or Northwestern’s Justin Jackson will get to 100 yards on Saturday. The first one to 80 may get the win.

Which quarterback will make more plays?

If neither team can run the ball, the game may come down to which quarterback makes the most plays. Neither MSU’s Brian Lewerke nor Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson are having great seasons.

Thorson has thrown for about 300 yards more than Lewerke this season (1,688 to 1,362) and the two have completed almost the same percentage of passes (60.1 for Thorson, 59.4 for Lewerke). Lewerke has a big edge in TD-to-interception ratio, however, as he has 10 TDs and 3 INTs, while Thorson has 8 and 9, respectively.

There is little debate that Thorson has the bigger arm and is the more dangerous passer. He also has a lot more experience, with 33 career starts to Lewerke’s 7. Lewerke, on the other hand, adds a dimension as a runner that Thorson just doesn’t have. Lewerke is MSU’s second-leading rusher with 313 yards and 3 TDs, while Thorson has just 179 due to sacks.

The Spartans have an edge in pass defense, allowing just 168.7 per game, but Northwestern has been better in recent weeks now that the cornerback position is more settled.

Who will make fewer mistakes?

Northwestern played its first game without a turnover last week and it paid off with a win. The Wildcats are a disappointing -5 in turnover margin this season, having lost five fumbles and nine interceptions. Michigan State isn’t that much better at -1. The Spartans have given the ball away 12 times, including nine on fumbles, tied for most in the league with Iowa. Lewerke has three lost fumbles himself.

Just as much as turnovers, though, defensive breakdowns could determine the outcome . Northwestern has allowed a number of explosion plays in the passing game that knocked them on their heels this season. Duke hit a 52-yard pass for a touchdown, Wisconsin connected on 61-, 32- and 33-yard passes in the second half of its win, and Maryland had a 52-yard TD catch-and-run by DJ Moore.

The team that hits more chunk plays in a game in which yards will be hard-gained will likely get the win.

Who will rise to the occasion?

Northwestern has lost eight of its last 10 games against Top 25 teams, including two this season to Wisconsin and Penn State. And when you look at it, this will be the Wildcats last chance to get a victory over a marquee opponent this season. The Wildcats remaining schedule – Nebraska, Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois – doesn’t afford them any opportunities for victories that will get fans bases, or bowl reps, very excited.

Michigan State, which is 4-0 in Big Ten play and still in the hunt for the Big Ten East title, seems to have much more to play for. But this is a classic trap game for the Spartans. Their next two games are against top East contenders Penn State and Ohio State, so it will be awfully easy for MSU to look past a road trip to 4-3 Northwestern.

Most signs seem to point to a Michigan State win on Saturday. The Spartans have a better record, a No. 16 national ranking and a four-game winning streak. Head coach Mark Dantonio is 5-3 against NU to boot.

But there’s a reason that the Spartans are just a 2.5-point favorite in Las Vegas this week. Northwestern is a team playing with confidence and on a two-game streak of its own after closing out its best win of the season over Iowa. Michigan State, meanwhile, has looked underwhelming in wins over Minnesota and Indiana since posting its season-making 14-10 victory over rival Michigan.

We see another ugly defensive battle on Saturday, much like the Iowa game last week, with yards and points at a premium. Cold, gray and windy weather will only add to the throwback feel of this one.

It comes down to one thing for us: we will take the streaky veteran starter, Thorson, over the streaky young starter, Lewerke. Thorson comes up with a play or two more than his counterpart and the Wildcats win a tight one.

The pick: Northwestern 17 Michigan State 14

Season record: 6-1