2018 Northwestern Preview: Quarterbacks

First in a series of position-by-position breakdowns of the 2018 Wildcats by WildcatReport's Tim Chapman.

The quarterback position has been one of relative consistency in the Pat Fitzgerald era. C.J. Bacher started Fitzgerald’s first three years, and then he was able to plug-and-play with a succession of Mike Kafka, Dan Persa, Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian, the last two as QBs 1 and 1A for two seasons.

Then, enter redshirt first-year Clayton Thorson in 2015. He stared against the nationally ranked and consistently powerful Stanford Cardinal in the season opener and since then has earned more wins (27) than any other QB in school history, thrown for the second-most yards (7,513) and is completing over 57 percent of his passes.

He returns for his fifth and final year in 2018 with a catch. A big catch. His health is the biggest question surrounding this Wildcats team heading into the season.

Just 10 days after announcing he would return to Evanston for a fifth year, Thorson suffered a torn ACL injury in his right knee in Northwestern’s 24-23 win over Kentucy in the Music City Bowl last Dec. 29. He got injured while getting tackled on a trick play after catching a pass. True to Fitzgerald’s “next man up” mantra, fifth-year senior Matt Alviti came in and led the Wildcats to the win.

Thorson underwent surgery in January and since that time the status of his knee and rehabilitation have been the central questions revolving around the program. Fitzgerald has said at every opportunity that Thorson is “doing well” or “better than expected” or “appears to be ahead of schedule.” Fitzgerald has been up front in saying he will not divulge to anyone his actual status or any sort of timetable, sarcastically chiding the media that “it’s awesome for people to speculate.”

The typical timetable for an ACL recovery is anywhere from 9-12 months. Then again, Purdue’s Elijah Sindelar played three and a half games last season with a torn ACL. Thorson’s surgery was successful, but you can bet that the coaching and medical staffs are going to treat him with absolute caution and calculated patience. To put it simply, Thorson’s health will have a great deal of influence on the success of the season, and most certainly the offense.

Thorson threw lightly during spring practice, which is a positive sign. While Fitzgerald is rigid about disclosing a timetable, Thorson is on track to be a substantial contributor this season. The question is when he will be ready. Will it be the start of the season, or perhaps the end of September, as sources were telling WildcatReport?

Thorson is entering his fourth year as the starter at Northwestern and has made 39 consecutive starts.

Growing pains were scattered in with highlights in his first season as the starter in 2015. Thorson followed that with his best year statistically as a sophomore in 2016, when he threw for 22 TDs (to only 9 INTs) and 3,182 yards, hitting his targets 59 percent of the time. Last season, though, he hit a speed bump, despite the team winning 10 games.

In Thorson’s case, it seems as though Fitz’s theory that “stats are for losers” holds true. In both of Thorson’s 10-win seasons (2015 and 2017), his numbers were less impressive than his sophomore year, when the team scratched its way to a 7-6 season.

Strengths

Four-year starters in college football are rare and valuable commodities. Thorson has all the tools necessary for the NFL – he’s big, he’s got a plus arm and can make all the throws, he’s athletic enough to keep the defense honest, he’s smart and he’s durable. He is arguably the best player on the team, and he plays the most important position on the field.

In his three years behind center, Thorson has proven to play better at home (59% comp., 4,588 yards, 26-11 TD/INT ratio, 10 rushing TDs); in the second quarter (58% comp., 2,385 yards, 14-7 TD/INT ratio, 8 rushing TDs); and in the month of November (10-2 record).

He excels on first down (60% comp., 3,088 yards, 21-9 TD/INT ratio; 4 rushing TDs), especially first-and-goal (4-4 passing, 4 TDs and 3 rushing TDs). He also plays well on fourth down (61% comp., 3 TDs and 3 rushing TDs), which is vital with “Riverboat Gambler” Fitzgerald’s increasing trend to go for it on fourth down. Thorson has thrown four INTs on fourth down, but keep in mind that those throws are often do-or-die attempts that can serve the same purpose as punts.

When the game is close (within a score either way), Thorson competes 58 percent of his passes for 3,234 yards, a 22-14 TD/INT ratio and 12 rushing TDs.

Areas to improve

As good as Thorson has been at times, there is still room for development and he was wise to stay in school another year. When he has a clean pocket, he can be as good as any quarterback in the country. When things break down, however, Thorson’s performance and decision making have been questionable.

Where Thorson needs to polish his play is on third down. His numbers aren’t awful – he completes 53 percent of his passes and has accounted for 19 TDs – but the Wildcats only converted 38 percent of their third-down conversion attempts, which is about middle of the pack in the conference. Further, Thorson has thrown 12 INTs and been sacked 51 times on third down. Third-and-goal is even more concerning, where his completion rate falls to 47 percent, with a 3-2 TD/INT ratio.

The red zone offense runs through Thorson, and the team has finished 74th, 80th, and 36th nationally in red zone scoring. While 2017 was a productive jump for the offense, the production from inside the 20-yard line must be more consistent if the 2018 Wildcats prove to be a contender for Indianapolis.

Sacks have always been an issue for Thorson (90 in three years) and with a healing knee, they may be even more of an issue in 2018. The play of Northwestern’s offensive line will be more crucial than ever this season, and Thorson will have to remedy his tendency to hold onto the ball too long under pressure. He does have one of the more experienced lines in the Fitzgerald era with four returning starters (2011 offers the only similarity), but that experience is going to have to culminate in better protection, especially since Thorson may not be able (or be encouraged) to maneuver like he used to.

So what if Thorson’s recovery does not go as planned and Thorson isn’t ready for the opener at Purdue on Aug. 30? In that case, it will come down to the off-season competition between three program veterans who have thrown a combined one college pass.

There is TJ Green, the rising redshirt sophomore from Leawood (Kan.) Rockhurst and son of former Indiana and NFL signal caller Trent Green. Green, who WildcatReport sources have said may have the inside track out of spring ball, may remind fans of former Northwestern great Steve Schnur. Both have similar stature (Green is 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds) and were stars players in Missouri who came within one game of a state championship, and they wear the same number and have been counted out for the QB position at NU.

While he failed to draw any FBS scholarship offers, Green was the Gatorade and USA Today player of the year in Missouri his senior season, slinging the ball for 2,638 yards and 33 TDs. He chose to walk on at Northwestern over Stanford and Nebraska.

Green’s arm is the weakest of the three combatants, but he’s smart and doesn’t make many mistakes. He’s one of those quarterbacks that may not have the talent to win games for you, but he won’t lose it for you, either. He consistently gets the team into the right play call and seems to have the best command of the offense.

Next is rising redshirt sophomore Aidan Smith of Ft. Wayne (Ind.) Carroll. A 6-foot-2, 205-pounder has good mobility and can prolong plays with his feet. He is probably the best athlete of the trio of QBs.

Chemistry with wide receivers is always a big plus for QBs coming in, and two years ago he won a national 7-on-7 title with a team that also featured Northwestern WR Bennett Skowronek. 2017 was Smith’s second season of absorbing Northwestern’s offensive schematics behind Thorson, the graduated Matt Alviti and the aforementioned Green. It will be interesting to see what progress Smith has made in 2018.

Last is Andrew Marty from Cincinnati (Ohio) Wyoming, who has Thorson-like size at 6-foot-4 and 218 pounds and the best arm of the bunch. Though labeled as a pocket passer, his high school film showed his ability to tuck and run to extend a play. His mechanics need a little work (some throws off his back foot), but he did a good job of keeping his eyes downfield and making good decisions with the ball as a three-year starter at Wyoming.

Though Marty suffered a fractured femur during his junior year, he came back to have a monster All-State senior campaign, throwing for 3,203 yards and 43 TDs (he also ran for seven) against only five INTs. He successfully completed 64 percent of those throws in leading his team to a 12-1 record.

Finally, there’s incoming freshman Jason Whittaker from Rockford (Mich.). The first recruit of the 2018 class comes in with a lot of early intrigue. His 6-foot-5, 200-pound frame, strong, accurate arm and good mobility have drawn early comparisons to Thorson. He was a three-year starter and team captain, though his team never got further than second round of state playoffs.

Whittaker was injured this past football season and put up pedestrian numbers (60% comp., 1,200 yds., 13 TDs) playing in an antiquated wing-T offense that emphasized running. Whittaker’s learning curve and the fact that Fitzgerald has really only played a true first-year at quarterback once in his tenure as coach (Colter, but only after Persa went down with a season-ending injury in 2010), it is safe to assume that Whittaker will most likely redshirt.

Tim Chapman is a teacher and former Michigan high school football coach who is currently working on a book titled "ChampioN Underdog" about the 1995 Northwestern Rose Bowl team. Follow him on Twitter: @Champion_Lit.