Published Aug 27, 2018
2018 Northwestern Preview: The Final Analysis
Louie Vaccher  •  WildcatReport
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The 2018 season is finally here!

By now, we’ve sliced and diced the 2018 Wildcats like a Cuisinart. We’ve broken down every position group, we’ve looked at some burning questions facing the team and we’ve written about our impressions from practice.

Now it’s time to put it all together and predict how the Wildcats will do this season.

But first, the disclaimers. Picking Northwestern games is about as difficult as predicting the content of Donald Trump’s next tweet. They typically win one game they shouldn’t (last year, it was Michigan State) and lose one they shouldn’t (Duke). Their margin of error is as skinny as Manute Bol’s calves.

Sure, they won 10 games two of the last three years, but during those two years they went 9-0 in one-score games, including three consecutive overtime games last season. In 2016, the year between those two 10-win seasons, NU was just 2-3 in one-score games and they went 7-6. A play here or there goes the other way, and a season goes from historic to mediocre.

But the fact is, they made those plays in 2017. The tough part is predicting if they will again this year.

Offensively, this team should be better than 2017’s, on paper. Quarterback Clayton Thorson – and yes, we think he’ll start on Thursday night – is one of the best in the Big Ten. Jeremy Larkin is ready to step into Justin Jackson’s shoes. The offensive line returns four starters and is as solid as it’s been in several years. They return their top two pass catchers in Flynn Nagel and Bennett Skowronek.

On defense, the front seven will shut down the run and should be able to mount a better pass rush with Big Ten sack leader Joe Gaziano on one side, the improved and bulked up Samdup Miller on the other and Earnest Brown ready to make an impact off the bench on passing downs. At linebacker, Paddy Fisher and Nate Hall are as good a pair as there is in the Big Ten, and Montre Hartage has NFL talent at corner. Safety is the only real question mark,

Even special teams are looking up. Kicker Charlie Kuhbander should have more range as a sophomore. The Wildcats didn’t have an heir apparent at punter so they picked one up in Western Kentucky grad transfer Jake Collins. Plus, Solomon Vault returns (pardon the pun) after sitting out last season with a lower-body injury and should add a jolt to kickoff returns.

The problem is, Northwestern’s schedule has been upgraded this year, too. The Wildcats’ 2018 slate is seventh-toughest in the nation according to ESPN. The crossover games include Michigan and Michigan State (as well as Rutgers, thankfully), and they added a non-conference matchup with Notre Dame.

So will Northwestern come up aces in tight games again this year? Here’s our look at the upcoming season.


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Record

Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)

Biggest win: Notre Dame. Call it a hunch, but we think that Northwestern will extend its winning streak against the Irish to three games and beat them in Evanston for the first time since 1962.

Toughest loss: at Iowa. The very next week, the Wildcats will have to go on the road to Iowa, where their recent luck against the Hawkeyes runs out.


Offense

Strength: Running game: With an experienced offensive line, along with Jeremy Larkin and deep backfield, the Wildcats may be able to exceed last year’s 170.4 rushing yards per game.

Concern: Explosion plays. A few more big plays would help take some pressure off of an offense that often takes long drives to score.

MVP: Clayton Thorson. The fifth-year senior with 39 career starts is a valuable commodity in the Big Ten. He looks primed for a big year, ACL or not.

Breakout player: Cameron Green. The former wideout emerged as a playmaker last year. Now, as a starter, NU is looking for ways to involve him in the offense.

Rookie of the year: JJ Jefferson. Look for the speedy and polished true freshman to make some plays in the slot this season.


Defense

Strength: Front seven. NU was No. 9 in the country in rushing defense in 2017 and six of the seven return. Once again, the Wildcats will hang their hat on stopping the running game.

Concern: Safety. The Wildcats surrendered quite a few big plays in 2017 and lost two multiple-year starters. Jared McGee provides experience in one safety spot; the other will be occupied by a talented player without a lot of reps.

MVP: Paddy Fisher. This is self-explanatory, isn’t it? We don’t know how Fisher will top his Freshman All-America season, but we’re looking forward to seeing how.

Breakout player: Blake Gallagher. This guy is ready to assume a starting role and make plays. He joins Fisher and Nate Hall to form maybe the most athletic group of linebackers the Wildcats have ever had.

Rookie of the year: Greg Newsome. The true freshman from IMG Academy (and Glenbard North) enrolled early and is our pick to make an impact, even if he is in a crowded cornerback depth chart.


Special teams

MVP: Solomon Vault. Northwestern’s career leader with five kick returns for touchdowns looks to add to his record in 2018. His ability to set NU up on shorter fields will be invaluable for an offense that has had a tendency to sputter at times.

Breakout Player: Charlie Kuhbander. The true freshman was an impressive 13-for-16 on field goals last year but his long was just 40 yards. Expect NU to allow him to kick from longer distances this year.