Northwestern 2020 Season Preview: Quarterbacks

First in a series of Northwestern position-by-position breakdowns going into the 2020 season.

2019 was an offensive anomaly for the Northwestern Wildcats, and a lot of it had to do with the play of their quarterbacks. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald has said on many occasions that what we saw from this group was “totally unacceptable.”

“That is the No. 1 room I will get fixed,” Fitzgerald scorned. “Period.”

In an effort to try and bury 2019, we’re going to focus on the wave of optimism that has seemed to swell with the addition of new offensive coordinator, Mike Bajakian, who was hired over from Boston College to replace former OC/QBC Mick McCall, back in December.

Prior to BC, “Coach Jake,” as he’s called within the program, also spent four years as the quarterback coach with the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where they consistently finished in the top-five in total offense. His group was especially known for passing yards, big plays and accuracy – all things the Wildcats desperately need help with going into this season.

Before that, he spent a total of eight years as offensive coordinator at Central Michigan, Cincinnati and Tennessee. In that time, his attacks averaged a ranking of 49th in S&P+ (overall) offensive numbers. By comparison, Northwestern averaged somewhere in the 90s during that span, so this hire looks to be a major upgrade.

We’ll start by echoing the idea that Bajakian is an accomplished offensive technician who specializes in quarterback play. Fitzgerald will give him all the resources he needs to produce an effective passing game.

In his nine years as a college OC/QB coach, Bajakian’s players have averaged a 23-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 60% completion percentage per season, and a norm of 30 points-per-game, ranking them 46th in the country in that category. Every one of those statistical marks is better than what McCall’s quarterbacks averaged in his last nine seasons, with completion percentage being the only category that was even close.

Whoever earns the job won’t necessarily have to be a star, either. Bajakian’s schemes make his quarterbacks look better because they aren’t asked to carry the offense. It’s been well-documented that Bajakian likes to fit his scheme to his personnel, which, if done right, will surely take some of the burden off this multitude of capable quarterbacks.

When he got to BC, for example, the Eagles went from having the 88th-ranked offense in S&P+ to 44th. And that was with two quarterbacks, one of whom was a sophomore walkon with no previous college experience.

Fortunately, Bajakian be working with some guys who do have experience. Grad-transfer Peyton Ramsey undoubtedly has the most positive resume of the group, but the guys competing with him also saw the field a lot last year, or have been in the program for a while and have built a solid rapport with their receiving corps.

Another plus is that Bajakian’s offense protects the QB position pretty well. BC’s quarterbacks were only sacked 13 times last year, compared to Northwestern’s 23 sacks allowed. That’s not necessarily due to BC’s line being better than NU’s, either. The way Bajakian’s offense worked, quarterbacks played with more confidence and made better decisions because of Bajakian’s game plan.

Simply put, this new scheme, along with four returning linemen, should protect these NU quarterbacks a lot better this season.

Okay, there’s a lot to work on from last year. Given how poorly they threw the ball, and how frequently the quarterbacks ran (out of necessity), the Wildcats’ spread attack often looked more like a single-wing. If this were the 1920s, that might not be a problem, but in the modern passing era of the spread, this development is usually a sign of desperation and defeat.

Northwestern threw just six touchdown passes against 15 interceptions last season, and no QB threw more TDs than INTs. Bajakian’s quarterbacks had a TD-INT ratio of 18-5 last year at Boston College (plus two more TDs from non-QBs), while throwing the ball 23 times per game ( for a 53% completion percentage). NU’s interceptions were more a product of trying to do too much, rather than just poorly executed throws. But still, turning the ball over that many times while attempting just 26 passes per game has got to be fixed.

So obviously, making decisions and getting rid of the football safely is priority No. 1. Fitzgerald explained many times last year that his quarterbacks were either hanging onto the ball too long, or trying to force things. That, of course, could be a byproduct of panic and poor teaching. Fitzgerald, as the head of the program, took responsibility for that and made a necessary alteration.

Confidence is also something that must improve, but, of course, that often comes from production. The numbers suggest that Bajakian can help produce more positive results, having worked with a group of athletes of similar (if not lesser) caliber at Boston College.

Northwestern’s offensive focus under Fitzgerald, has been – and always will be – running the football to set up the pass. This heavy focus on the ground game begets an effective play-action series that will help whomever plays quarterback for the Cats. “Coach Jake” must continue with his effective M.O. to win with the scheme, and not necessarily the QB himself.

They’ll need a “guy” to emerge by the end of week four, the Penn State game. Even if the Cats are just 2-2 at that point, they’ll need to see confidence, production and separation from somebody in this crowded quarterback room.

Last year’s mess is Bajakian’s to clean up. We think he will. But every eye in Evanston will be on this group, and all hands of praise – or fingers of blame – will be on Bajakian.

No pressure, right? But like Peyton Manning says, “Pressure is only when you don’t know what the hell you’re doing.” We think “Jake” knows what he’s doing.

Speaking of Peyton, the Wildcats got one in Indiana grad transfer, Peyton Ramsey (6-foot-2, 212 pounds; 21 starts). He looks to be the man who will earn the nod to start the season.

The son of head coach Mike Ramsey at Cincinnati’s Elder High School, Ramsey wanted to come to NU five years ago, but the need just wasn’t there at the time. Four years later, he joins the program that he feels is “the right fit”. In fact, Northwestern was the only program he visited after entering the transfer portal.

“I just fell in love with the place,” Ramsey said, adding, “I’ve always had a ton of respect for Northwestern and Coach Fitz.”

In his time at IU, Ramsey completed 67% of his passes, with a 42-23 TD-INT ratio and 14 rushing TDs. Last year, he was a team captain for the eight-win Hoosiers, despite not being the starter at the beginning of the season. He completed 68% of his passes in 2019 (ninth nationally, second in the Big Ten) for 2,454 yards, with 13 TDs and 5 INTs, earning him honorable mention All-Big Ten honors.

Ramsey is poised and proficient, especially against the big boys of the Big Ten. In three games against Top-13 ranked opponents in 2019, he completed at least 58% of his passes (including 75% vs. No. 9 Penn State) in each game, with a 1-2 ratio and ran for three TDs. He’s played especially well against the Nittany Lions the last two years, completing 57-of-77 passes (74%) for 607 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT and two additional rushing TDs.

He also fared well against Maryland, Nebraska and Purdue last season, and all four are on the Wildcats’ schedule this year. Against these foes, Ramsey went 3-1, completing 69% of his passes, with a 7-1 TD-INT ratio, and five rushing TDs to boot. He’s also been proficient against the Big Ten West over the last two years, with a 68% completion rate, 1,636 yards (273 ypg), 10 TDs, 5 INTs and five rushing TDs.

Ramsey always seems to have a good handle on his offense; he’s accurate, and has good feet. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry not including sacks last year. He was sacked 25 times for -134 yards, largely due to some inconsistencies on the IU O-Line.

Luckily he’ll have four returning Wildcat linemen in front of him (assuming they stay healthy) this season, and one of the better OL coaches in the conference in Kurt Anderson. He’ll also be running a system designed to relieve him of unnecessary risks and pressure.

The only concern we see from Ramsey is that he’s more of a dink-and-dunker than a downfield artist, and when he does air-mail it, he tends to float the longer passes. He takes a little longer to get the deep balls downfield, creating opportunities for interceptions if his receivers can’t help him out with high-point heroics. And though he prides himself on his improvisation in the pocket, his running tendencies always pose the potential for punishment. But he’s made a career of protecting himself and his passes, so why be skeptical now?

In all, we see Ramsey as a master of preparation. He is enthusiastic about being a Wildcat, and he always plays like he has something to prove. Those are all reasons for optimism in 2020.

“He’s smart, athletic, and he’s won a lot of football games,” says Bajakian. “He can come in and make an immediate impact.”

Fitzgerald likes to say that “competition makes good players great, and great players special.” If the competition is really as tight as we feel it should be with this group, there are going to be some pretty great players; maybe even special ones.

There’s certainly a wealth of capable depth here – again, assuming last year was an anomaly and “Coach Jake” truly is the quasi-quarterback whisperer we hear he is. He’s a hands-on QB coach, known to get involved in drills, not to mention a tough-love motivator who seems to push his QBs to the height of their potential.

Competition outside Ramsey starts with sixth-year graduate senior T.J. Green (6-foot-2, 210 pounds; no starts) and redshirt junior Andrew Marty (6-foot-3, 227 pounds; one start). We say this because of the fact that these two have shown the most promise of anyone the last two seasons, and both have been leading the virtual quarterback meetings.

Green, the grizzled veteran and, perhaps, most cerebral of the competitors, is once again itching for his shot. He came on in relief in the opener at Stanford last year, but suffered a season-ending foot injury just a couple series in. He’s appeared in 13 games over the past three seasons, completing 57% of his 47 career passes, with no TDs and 1 INT. The edges he might bring in all of this is a solid rapport with his offensive teammates and a mental capacity for this offense as good as anyone in the room.

Marty may be the most intriguing, and may have – dare we say – the most attractive style of play from last year. Of course we are basing that off just one start and a few other “opportunity” appearances. Still, that one start was pretty darn impressive, when you consider his stats from that contest and the fact that he claimed the only Big Ten win against Illinois in Northwestern’s pseudo-bowl game.

He had the highest rating (132.7) of any QB last year, going 14-of-22 (64%) for 150 yards, with a 2-2 TD-INT ratio. It might be a little concerning, though, that 25% of his missed throws were INTs, and in both cases they were just not very good reads of the defense.

The two most impressive traits from Marty’s limited time last season were his moxie and his toughness. He’s not afraid to take a hit or lower his shoulder and, as he put it, he “loves to run.” He wasn’t sacked at all last year and averaged 3.9 yards per carry, with four TDs (tied for team lead). The highlight was his 111-yard, 2 TD rushing performance against the Illini in the season finale last year. Bajakian has done well with a quarterback who is both athletically confident and tough-minded, so Marty could very well carve out a role for himself once things settle, if not as the starter, than perhaps a Wildcat guy.

Then, of course, there’s Northwestern’s last hyped transfer hopeful, redshirt junior Hunter Johnson (6-foot-2, 216 pounds; 5 starts). Johnson began last season as the starter but never really got anything going. After learning of certain physical, and even heavier emotional restrictions, it’s fair to hold off true assessment of this once-ballyhooed blue chip for now.

In six games last year, Johnson was inaccurate, hitting a subpar 46% of his throws on 108 attempts and only averaging 4.0 yards per attempt. This means that many of his throws were extremely short, in the check-down variety. He totaled 432 yards passing, but only had one game of more than 100 and that was just 165 in a win over a pedestrian UNLV defense. Even then, Johnson completed just 48% of passes against the Rebels. His 1-4 TD-INT ratio was also concerning, though at least that one TD was a 50-yard bomb to WR J.J. Jefferson.

Aside from his accuracy and dissection of defenses, the other area of improvement the team needs to see from Johnson is what he does with the ball when things truly aren’t there. He was sacked 11 times for a loss of 108 yards, and though Fitzgerald stood behind his troubled quarterback, he surely wasn’t shy about pointing out that No. 15 often held onto the ball too long. The irony is, he’s actually a pretty good runner (4.6 ypc if you take away sack yardage), but this skill seemed to be too much of a crutch for him last year.

Before everyone buries Johnson, remember that he is now learning his seventh different scheme in his last eight years, dating back to high school. He was Rivals’ No. 2-ranked quarterback in 2017 for a reason. He completed 77% of his 27 throws at Clemson in a good offensive system with a good offensive coach, so good things could be coming under Bajakian.

According to all reports, Johnson’s “doing great” in his rehab from last year’s injuries, and in even better news, Johnson assures us that mom, Shana, is doing “really, really well,” after recovering from undergoing treatment for breast cancer in the fall.

Then there’s last year’s most-repped starter, redshirt senior Aidan Smith (6-foot-2, 215 pounds; 6 starts). Smith was the best passer on the team (relatively speaking), leading the Wildcats with 760 passing yards and three scores. Still, he completed just 50% of his 171 attempts, with a sickening 3-9 TD-INT ratio, and a long pass of just 33 yards.

Smith, too, was sacked 11 times (five of them coming against Iowa), but lost just 57 total yards. Like many of the aforementioned QBs, Smith was productive with his feet, averaging 6.5 yards per rush if you take away the sack numbers, including a TD and long jaunt of 22 yards. Smith played his best game against Purdue last season, going 19-of-31, with 2-1 ratio in a near-win. He also played well against Nebraska, completing 59% of his throws with a ratio of 1-1, and team-high 64 rush yards and a TD, in yet another narrow loss.

The biggest knock against Smith is that he rushes/forces his throws when it’s not necessary. As the losses mounted, No. 11 appeared compelled to “Brett Favre” his way to success, like not many can. If Smith can play within Bajakian’s system and show he can be the best thrower again this year, he may stand a chance in the quarterback pecking order.

The other guys in the room are redshirt sophomore Jason Whittaker (6-foot-5, 222 pounds; 0 starts) and redshirt first-year Zac Krause (6-foot-3, 203 pounds; 0 starts). Whittaker, who was moved to QB to TE and then back to TE, made a few appearances last year and had no passing stats, carrying the ball twice for three yards. Krause, the lone walkon in the room, will likely continue to learn from those ahead of him.

Due to a little bit of documented drama (that had Northwestern had nothing to do with), the Wildcats had to go with a last-minute QB in its 2020 class. But they may have brought in a hidden gem in Carl Richardson (6-foot-4, 205 pounds) from Salinas, Calif. A pro-style passer, Richardson enrolled early, and has already gotten good face-time with the team. He was recruited by Washington State, under former head coach and Air Raid architect Mike Leach (who has since left for Mississippi State), as well as Boise State. Early reports out of Evanston about Richardson have been positive.

Tim Chapman is a teacher and former Michigan high school football coach who is currently working on a book titled "ChampioN Underdog" about the 1995 Northwestern Rose Bowl team. Follow him via Twitter: @Champion_Lit. Email him at nufbhistorian@gmail.com.