WildcatReport's Tim Chapman, a former high school football head coach, breaks down the Wildcats’ first loss of the season, to Michigan State.
THREE TAKEAWAYS
This team showed they are not yet ready for success and publicity on a national level. After beating No. 10 Wisconsin at home last week, then being ranked eighth in the initial College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, Northwestern came out flat on Saturday. True, their opponents had an extra week to recover and prepare themselves for the Wildcats, but so did Purdue and Nebraska, and the Wildcats seemed a bit more juiced.
It will be good to put this whole “Fighting Rece Davises” gag with ESPN to bed and get back to what suits Northwestern best: being overlooked and underappreciated, with the customary, motivational chip on their shoulders. The sting from a disappointing loss that never should have happened should serve as a solid catalyst, as well.
The offense held this team back. The Cats only gained 285 yards of total offense, which was 106 less than what the Spartans were allowing coming into the game. And though Northwestern came into Saturday with one of the weaker units in the conference, this was still 51 under their average output on the season as well. The runners aren’t reading the field, or their blocks, the right way. There were a couple of times Drake Anderson turned back inside when he had the field open for him. Backup QB Andrew Marty, who was brought in for short-yardage situations, could have bounced outside on that third-and-2 run in the first quarter. Isaiah Bowser seems to be slamming into his linemen instead of showing the patience that made him so successful in his freshman season of 2018. Granted, the offensive line didn’t have a very good game at all, but in moments when these guys had some opportunity, the backs failed to execute.
Back to the O-Line play. The Cats gained just 85 yards on the ground on 33 totes, an average of just 2.6 yards per carry. It’s no wonder NU had 10 drives of seven plays or fewer, including four three-and-outs. The rush numbers do not include the four sacks given up to the Spartans, who were coming in with one of the least disruptive pass rush units in the country. Prior to Saturday, they had just five total sacks in four games; they fell just one short of that total in four quarters against the Wildcats.
The receivers weren’t without issue, either. Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, the group’s emotional leader, seemed juiceless Saturday. Kyric McGowan had one of his worst games as a Wildcat. There were three drops from the receiving corps -- four if you count the ball that MSU’s Xavier Henderson swiped from the hands of Riley Lees but was ultimately ruled incomplete.
Most surprising, though, was the play of quarterback Peyton Ramsey. Ramsey was picked off twice, but there were three other throws that could have -- and should have -- been snagged by the Spartans. On a handful of occasions, Ramsey made the ill-advised throw across his body, when all season we’d been praising his decision-making. On top of that, so many of his passes seemed to flutter, lacking any zip. He came out stronger in the third quarter, but in the crunchtime of the fourth, when the Cats had a chance for victory, Ramsey waned.
Their red-zone efficiency stayed strong. Coming in, NU was 84% effective in their 19 red-zone opportunities. But what was more impressive was that 75% of their 16 scores inside the 20 this season came by way of a touchdown. They got two more red-zone TDs Saturday, both on well-designed play calls that were well-executed.
The first was Ramsey’s “naked” QB run after a well-sold play fake in the third quarter. The second was the direct snap to freshman running back Cam Porter’s in a “Wildcat” look, when he tucked in behind a trap block to give the Wildcats their first (and only) lead of the day early in the fourth quarter. It’s at least comforting to know that in 64% of their red-zone scoring opportunities, they are crossing the plane for six.
The defense was also pretty strong inside the 20. Despite giving up the 15-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter, they only allowed the Spartans to get down there once more and forced a 22-yard field goal when MSU had it first-and-10 from the NU 11-yard line after a Ramsey interception was returned 54 yards by Shakur Brown. On the season, teams have only cracked the 20 on Northwestern 16 times, scoring just five touchdowns, and seven field goals.
TWO QUESTIONS
What was with the second fourth-down decision? After making their first seven fourth-down conversions on the season, the Cats missed one last week and their first two Saturday against the Spartans.
Head coach Pat Fitzgerald said he wanted to be aggressive and show confidence in his guys. That’s fine, but was this a little too confident? If you’re going to show confidence, why not in the defense that has gotten you to this point? Why not carry what’s been riding you so far this year and save the fourth-down “analytics” for the second half, if you need it?
We don’t question going for the first one, but on the second one, only down seven, why not use the weapon that has been Derek Adams at punter, pin the Spartans deep and possibly get good field position back on the next drive?
Will AJ Hampton start at CB in place of Cameron Ruiz next week? We’re not sure if Ruiz got hurt or if it was a tactical change to put Hampton out there, but it seemed to work out better for the secondary in the second half.
Ruiz was beaten for both Michigan State touchdowns. Both Ruiz and Rod Heard suffered setbacks in coverage against the Spartan receivers. They weren’t helped much by the NU pass rush, as they hurried QB Rocky Lombardi just three times and never sacked him.
Moving forward, it could be a competitive week of practice at the other corner spot opposite lockdown Greg Newsome II.
ONE THING WE KNOW
The sky is not falling. It’s safe to say that every Wildcat fan felt the stings of disappointment and the fury of frustration after Saturday's loss. But this is still a good, well-coached team. Like Fitzgerald said after the game, “all of our goals are still ahead of us.” They just need to win one more and they will lock up the Big Ten West division, punching a ticket to Indianapolis to play the Big Ten East representative.
The old adage is still true, that defense wins championships. If the Wildcats can rely on this defense and use the next two weeks to develop some consistency on offense, learn from this minor setback and stay the course that they were bound and determined to make happen just 48 hours ago, they still control their own destiny for a pretty magical season, which could include a Rose Bowl appearance.
All the CFP talk last week was just that: talk. The Wildcats need to stay focused on the program's three goals: win the Big Ten West, win the Big Ten championship, win their bowl game. They are still all on the table.
AWARDS
Offensive game ball: WR Riley Lees. In a game that really lacked any offensive merit, Lees came through in the clutch, when the Wildcats needed a big play. All four of his receptions went for first downs, and two of them came on third down. His best two catches were in the second half, when he was forced to go up and high-point passes down the middle of that 27th-ranked Spartan defense. He also completed a pass -- his second of the season -- for 12 yards, ran it once on a jet sweep and made a couple good blocks downfield. Though his efforts never resulted in a touchdown, it was clear who the leader of this offense was on Saturday.
Defensive game ball: WLB Blake Gallagher. Gallagher continued to etch his name onto the first-team All-Big Ten defense with an 11-tackle performance which included three tackles for loss that showed his ability to fly up and stop the ballcarrier dead in his tracks. Paddy Fisher came close to this honor with a 12-tackle afternoon complemented by the Wildcats’ only interception, and a QB hurry to boot. But it was Gallagher that was more visible in a game when the defense took a step back.
Special Teams game ball: KRs Coco Azema and Kyric McGowan. This duo averaged 28.5 and 26.5 yards per return, respectively, which would put them first and third in the Big Ten right now. Even after mishandling a kickoff, Azema brought it back 35 yards. Credit the rest of the return units as well: they created an ample crease for these guys to run through, and both did a good job of making their burst straight upfield, finding the seam and not wasting any movements. It’s too bad the offense couldn’t cash in, though, as they went five plays and punted, followed by three three-and-outs. Still, look for a kick return for a touchdown at some point in the near future. They’re getting better each week.
Wildcat Warrior: WR Berkeley Holman. It’s really heartbreaking. In his first game of the season after recovering from a knee issue, the athletic and versatile junior from Irvine, Calif., made two catches for 27 yards and was targeted four times. However, it was on this fourth intended pass, in the fourth quarter, that he took an unfortunate hit that ended his afternoon. Breaking off a route, Holman took a shot to the head from defensive back Brown, who was going for the ball that he eventually picked. Holman's head then hit the turf and he was down for nearly 20 minutes. As he was carted off the field, Holman gave the thumbs-up sign to his team, his fans and all concerned that he was going to be alright. Fitzgerald said after the game that Holman was conscious and talking. Not all warriors leave the arena standing, but by many accounts, it sounds like he will, and our thoughts are with him as he recovers.
BEST MOMENT
The opening drive of the second half. Trailing 17-6 and accumulating just 182 total yards on 45 total plays (just 4.0 yards per play), the Wildcats got the ball to start what needed to be a much better half of offensive football. It began with a bang, as Ramsey completed two passes that resulted in first downs to two of his senior receivers, Chiaokhiao-Bowman and Lees, who both showed good body control and hand strength to secure these passes with defenders near them.
Ramsey looked much more confident throwing the ball, as he completed a total of three passes on the drive, all for first downs. Even Lees completed a pass to Marty that set the Cats up first-and-goal from the 5-yard line. Save for a couple of plays inside the 2, the Wildcats seemed to be in control. They capped the drive with a great call by offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian on fourth-and-goal, just inches outside the endzone. Ramsey faked the inside run, which the Wildcats had been calling all afternoon to little effect, and had Ramsey keep it on a “naked” QB bootleg that fooled every Spartan defender and brought the Wildcats within a touchdown.
Even if for just that moment, it was good to see Northwestern take control with their offense.
Tim Chapman is a teacher and former Michigan high school football coach who is currently working on a book titled "ChampioN Underdog" about the 1995 Northwestern Rose Bowl team. Follow him via Twitter: @Champion_Lit. Email him at nufbhistorian@gmail.com.