After Northwestern's four non-conference games to begin the season, things were looking good. The Cats blew a late lead and lost to Pitt, but they seemed like a talented offensive team that played with pace and a solid defensive team that didn't give up anything easy.
Then conference play started and threw open the curtain on their shortcomings. Now Northwestern (6-12, 3-11 Big Ten) looks like an anemic offensive team that can't get a stop on defense.
Some of this was expected with the rise in the level of competition in the best conference in the nation. Here are the KenPom.com rankings of Northwestern’s three wins in non-conference play: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (352 of 357), Chicago State (356) and Quincy, a Division II school that KenPom doesn’t rank but is currently 5-13 with losses to schools such as Southern Indiana and Maryville.
Northwestern lost to the lone major conference team on their early slate, but the irony is that Pittsburgh now ranks below No. 72 Northwestern at 76th in the KenPom standings.
Since the start of Big Ten play, Northwestern has faced a steady diet of ranked teams. The Wildcats faced a school-record seven straight Top 25 opponents during their now 11-game losing streak, and 10 of their 14 league opponents were in the AP poll at tipoff. That's quite a step up in competition, and it has showed in the Wildcats' numbers.
In terms of points per game, NU is scoring less and giving up more, which is a good way to lose 11 of 14 games. The Cats were scoring 93.3 points per game during non-conference games, and that has come crashing down to 67.4 points per game in Big Ten play. That's a whopping 26-point difference.
As a whole, the team isn't shooting that much worse: their field-goal percentage has only dropped three percent. Their shooting from behind the arc is a different story, though; the Wildcats' percentage from long-range has dropped from 42.7 to 33.6.
One of the biggest culprits behind Northwestern's decreased scoring numbers – and one that has been critical in recent games – has been the free-throw line. It's well documented that Northwestern doesn't draw fouls and get to the line nearly enough, and the numbers show that.
The Wildcats are averaging 14 fewer attempts per game from the line in Big Ten play, and 10 fewer makes per game. In this 11-game losing streak, NU has lost five games by 10 or fewer points; if they had continued to get to the line the way they had in the non-conference slate, this season could look a lot different.
In the last three games alone – against Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers – opponents have taken more than double the number of foul shots and scored well over double the number of points from the line. Northwestern is 24 of 35 from the charity stripe, while foes are 64 of 78. That’s a difference of 40 points, or just over 13 points per game.
The offense is by no means the only thing to blame, however. Opponent points per game has skyrocketed by more than 17 points, from 58.5 to 75.9, in large part because Northwestern has the worst field-goal defense in the Big Ten. Conference opponents are making 45.8% of their shots, which is 12% higher than what Northwestern allowed in its first four games.
Rebounding has been another area of struggle for Northwestern in conference contests. The Wildcats outrebounded their non-conference opponents by 16 boards per game but have been out rebounded in every Big Ten game by an average margin of nine. Northwestern is tied for last in the conference in offensive rebounds per game, with 6.1, another area that could produce more baskets for an offense that is struggling to score points.
In the end, it's become obvious that the strong start to the season was fool's gold. Big Ten play has exposed – and Big Ten teams have exploited – every one of Northwestern’s faults.
The road ahead doesn’t get much easier, either. Northwestern faces No. 5 Illinois on the road tonight, and then hosts No. 21 Wisconsin on Sunday. After that comes a road game at Minnesota (40th in KenPom) and a home game against Maryland (35th).
The Wildcats’ only realistic shot at a win might come in the season finale, when Nebraska (118th) comes to Welsh-Ryan Arena. It will be the first time Northwestern faces a team ranked below their current slot at 72 since mid-December.