Pat Fitzgerald won his first eight openers as Northwestern’s head coach. Five of them came against Power Five opponents, earning him a reputation as a guy who could get his team ready to play a curtain raiser.
Since then, however, the tables have turned and Fitzgerald has had his ups-and-downs. He is just 3-3 in openers in his last six years, including Saturday’s ugly 17-7 loss to Stanford. Coupled with some other early-season clunkers, it has the media asking Fitzgerald why his teams struggle early in the season.
While the sample size is small, there are some similarities among Fitzgerald’s three season-opening losses, including struggles on the offensive end.
And if the first two losses are any kind of indication, another, even bigger disappointment could be coming in the next game against UNLV. The Wildcats followed up both of their season-opening setbacks with losses to underdog opponents from lower level conferences the next time out.
However, if Northwestern has proven anything under Fitzgerald, it’s that they can bounce back after all types of defeats. The early season losses had very little to do with how the rest of the season turned out.
Here’s a look at Fitzgerald’s first-game losses and how they impacted the Wildcats moving forward.
2014: Cal 31 Northwestern 24
The story: The Wildcats had beaten Cal the year before in Berkeley and were favored at home. But sophomore quarterback Jared Goff (heard of him?) took Northwestern by surprise, throwing for 281 yards and three TDs against one interception. The Bears jumped out to a 17-0 lead and built it up to 31-7 before the Wildcats ran off the last 17 points to make the end of the game interesting.
Offensive troubles: Justin Jackson ran for just 40 yards as the Wildcats averaged 3.0 yards per carry. Trevor Siemian finished 23 of 44 passing with one touchdown, but he threw two interceptions and was sacked twice as NU managed 354 yards of total offense.
Next game: Things went from bad to worse as a Northwestern lost to underdog Northern Illinois 23-15, again at home, to drop to 0-2 on the season. In Fitzgerald’s first loss to a MAC team, Siemian was sacked five times as the Huskies built a 23-7 fourth-quarter lead.
The rest of the season: Northwestern rebounded to win three straight, including its first two Big Ten games, over Penn State and No. 17 Wisconsin. But the Wildcats couldn’t sustain the winning streak and they dropped their next four contests before upsetting Notre Dame and knocking off Purdue. A win over Illinois in the season finale would have made the Cats bowl-eligible, but backup QB Zack Oliver started for the injured Siemian and turned the ball over five times in a 47-33 loss. NU finished 5-7 (3-5 Big Ten) and remain the last Fitzgerald team not to make a bowl game.
2016: Western Michigan 22 Northwestern 21
The story: Coach P.J. Fleck rowed his boat into Ryan Field and saddled Fitzgerald with his second MAC loss, destroying the mojo Northwestern had built in winning 10 games the year before. The Broncos went four-for-four on fourth downs, the last conversion coming on the winning touchdown with 5:38 left. Northwestern got down to the WMU 1-yard line on the next drive, but Clayton Thorson fumbled into the end zone and the ball was recovered for a touchback.
Offensive troubles: Northwestern gained just 319 yards of total offense, 97 fewer than Western. Thorson, a sophomore, completed 15 of 22 passes for 196 yards, but he didn’t throw a touchdown or interception and was sacked three times. He also committed the critical fumble that cost the Wildcats the game.
The next game: Once again, the Wildcats went from the frying pan to the fire. The very next week produced the lowest point of the Fitzgerald era as heavily favored Northwestern lost to Illinois State, 9-7, at home in a game that was as brutal as the score indicates. The Wildcats managed just 277 yards and a single score against an FCS opponent that lost to Eastern Illinois the next week and finished just 6-6.
The rest of the season: Northwestern again put its lackluster performances behind them to win four of its next five games. In fact, of the Wildcats’ four remaining losses, three of them were to ranked teams (No. 20 Nebraska, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 8 Wisconsin), with Minnesota as the lone outlier. The Wildcats thumped Illinois in the season finale to gain bowl eligibility and then upset No. 23 Pitt 31-24 in the Pinstripe Bowl. (Western Michigan, by the way, went 13-1 that season, got a berth in the Cotton Bowl and finished 15th in the AP poll.)
2019: No. 25 Stanford 17 Northwestern 7
The story: Hunter Johnson, the hotshot former five-star recruit, looked like he may have transferred from Clemson – just that he may have played a different position while there. He finished 6 for 17 passing for 55 yards, with two interceptions and a fumble that was recovered for a touchdown. The defense kept the Wildcats in the game but uncharacteristically missed several tackles, enabling Stanford to dominate time of possession. Still, the Cats had a chance to win in the fourth quarter, when the score was just 10-7.
Offensive troubles: Northwestern turned in one of its worst offensive performances under Fitzgerald, gaining just 210 yards of total offense and scoring once. Johnson couldn’t get the passing game going, and the Wildcats averaged just 2.8 yards per rush on the ground. No. 2 QB T.J. Green came in and gave the offense a spark, but he got sacked and suffered foot injury that sidelined him for the remainder of the game – and possibly the season.
The next game: UNLV on Sept. 14. Northwestern will certainly be favored once again in a follow-up against a non-Power Five program. Plus, they have a bye week in between to work out the kinks. The Rebels beat FCS Southern Utah 56-23 last week, but they finished just 4-8 last year and won just two of six games in the Mountain West Conference.
The rest of the season: TBD.