Northwestern hosts on Saturday night at Ryan Field in a game that the Wildcats desperately need to bolster their confidence before heading into Big Ten play.
To preview this GPA Bowl between two of the brainiest football programs in the country, our football writers -- Louie Vaccher and Macray Poidomani -- had an open conversation about the matchup and how they think things will shake out.
We documented it here in this feature we'll call CrossTalk.
Louie: Well, Macray, I never thought Northwestern would be in this spot. The Cats have played the two non-Power Five teams on their schedule and they’re 0-2. When I picked them before the season to go 8-4, those were two games I carved in stone in the W column. Now, the Cats absolutely must win this game to have any momentum going into the Big Ten season or things are going to get ugly in a hurry and this season is going to spiral out of control.
So let’s talk about this Duke game. I think it’s critical for the offense to establish some kind of identity, not only for Saturday’s game but for the rest of the season. The running game was non-existent against Illinois State, gaining just 86 yards on 31 carries. I think the Cats have to make Clayton Thorson more of a threat as a runner. I’d like to see them run more read-option. He’s a fast runner, and I’d like to see him pull the ball once in a while so that the defense has to account for him. If guys like C.J. Bacher and Trevor Siemian could do it, so can Thorson, who is a better athlete than either of them. It will also help the offensive line, which looked absolutely dreadful against the Redbirds. Optioning a defensive lineman will give them one less guy to block up front.
The other things I’d like to see: getting Justin Jackson more involved in the passing game and taking a deep shot or two downfield. Thorson should throw the ball to No. 21 on screens or wheel routes to get him in open space. And, at least once early in the game, I’d like Northwestern to max-protect, put receivers in fly patterns and try to beat Duke over the top. Will they connect? Probably not. But maybe it will make their safeties take a step back and give the offense a little more breathing room.
Macray: I like the thoughts about establishing identity. I was speaking with some other long time Cat fans the other day, and we recalled that before NU had prolific running backs (Venric Mark and Justin Jackson), they relied much more on the intermediate passing game. Going back to the Dan Persa and Mike Kafka eras, there were a lot of crossing routes and outs that Northwestern ran with a great deal of success. This opened up the middle of the field and allowed those guys to gain a lot on the ground. I actually think this NU receiving corps is built for this type of passing attack. Garrett Dickerson is too fast for most linebackers and too big for most safeties, so he should be used more in the middle of the field. Furthermore, Austin Carr has proven to be a reliable target down the middle of the field. To me, it looks like Northwestern really wants to be a power football team that runs the ball 25-plus times a game. It seems that they've forgotten that their most successful offenses were predicated on quickness, spreading the field, and intermediate passing routes.
As for Thorson running, from the press box it does not look like he recognizes pull situations well. While most of the handoffs to Jackson look like they have a read component, Thorson hardly ever pulls it. I think he has the freedom to do so but is not comfortable with it. I've also noticed that he is not comfortable stepping up in the pocket. When pressure comes, he defaults to his throwing side, regardless of where the pressure is actually coming from. This tells me that he does not have a good feel in the pocket yet, which may explain why he is more reluctant to run.
Though Solomon Vault certainly has the speed to go deep, I am not overly confident in his hands. I agree that sending the receivers on some deep patterns may alleviate some of the pressure on Jackson. I especially am on board with finding ways to get Jackson more involved in the passing game. It is clear that at this point in the season, he is Northwestern's only reliable offensive threat, so getting him three to five touches on passing plays may provide him with more open field.
Turning to the defense, with news breaking that Kyle Quiero is out for the Duke game, who is left to step up for the Cats?
Louie: Man, the hits just keep coming for Northwestern. The Sky Team has been grounded. With Queiro injured, that means that three-fourths of the starting secondary will be out against Duke, and four DBs overall. For those scoring at home, cornerbacks Matthew Harris, Keith Watkins II and Alonzo Mayo, and now Queiro, a safety, are all out. Jared McGee will likely replace Queiro. He had an interception last week against Illinois State, but he hasn’t played a whole lot of football. So he should fit right in because the corners don’t have much experience, either: Montre Hartage is making his third start and Trae Williams his first (he was a safety before Watkins was hurt in camp). The question is, who is going to be the nickel back? That was McGee’s role, with Queiro playing “swing corner.” Now they may have to bring in true freshman corner Rod Campbell or maybe safety Parrker Westphal.
However the personnel works out, that probably means less blitzing for NU’s defense. I don’t think that Mike Hankwitz is going to want to leave those young DBs out on an island. That, in turn, means it will be more important than ever to get a rush with the front four. Duke quarterback Daniel Jones is a redshirt freshman making his third start, himself. If NU can put some pressure on him, he will get rattled.
Speaking of Jones and Duke, what do you think the keys to Saturday will be?
Macray: First of all, the offensive line has to come out with an attitude. They've been shown up two weeks in a row and their lackluster play has stalled the Northwestern offense. If they can get a little bit of a push, Jackson will have a performance more in line with Western Michigan (23 carries, 124 yards, 3 TDs) than Illinois State (12 carries, 42 yards). As for Thorson and the aerial attack, I would expect the play calling to be slightly more aggressive. I would not be surprised to see a few of those vertical plays that you've been calling for, especially to Macan Wilson or Vault. Mick McCall and his staff have a lot to prove in this game, so I would bet that they'll throw everything they have at Duke.
Defensively, the biggest key is how with the defensive backs perform. Fortunately for Northwestern, it is inexperience versus inexperience, as Duke’s Jones has only two starts to his name. That being said, Campbell, McGee and Williams are all stepping into unfamiliar territory and have extremely large shoes to fill. You made a great point about the pass rush, and I would expect Hankowitz to dial up some blitzes to keep the young quarterback off balance. CJ Robbins, Xavier Washington and Ifeadi Ogdenibo are major keys to the Northwestern defense stopping Duke. If Jones can sit back in the pocket without pressure, than I'd expect him to find an open man more often than not with so much inexperience in the backfield.
How do you see things shaking out?
Louie: I initially thought that Duke would be a pretty good matchup for Northwestern. They threw for 332 yards last week but managed just 14 points because they only ran for 37 and turned the ball over five times. That plays right into NU's hands, I thought. Then Harris went down on Saturday. Then Thursday we found out that Queiro would not play. That gives me pause, but if the Cats make Duke one-dimensional, like Wake did, and then can apply some pressure on Jones -- playing his first college game on the road, mind you -- I think the defense will be fine. On the other side of the ball, Duke's defensive line isn't a strong suit. If the Wildcats can establish the ground game and they run more like they did against WMU, as you pointed out, they will be more productive. I don't expect them to become Arizona State overnight, but if they can just move the chains and build some time of possession, I think they can score enough to win.
And there's one stat about Duke that makes me optimistic about NU’s chances: the Devils have eight turnovers in two games, while the Cats have one. I say Duke puts the ball on the ground a couple times (seven of their turnovers are fumbles) and Northwestern ekes out a win to right its listing ship. Call me a homer, call me delusional, call me whatever you want, but I'm taking the Cats in this one. It may be the last opportunity for quite a while. Pick: Northwestern 23 Duke 17.
What's your prediction?
Macray: Since you're playing the optimist role, I will be the pessimist. I haven't seen anything from the first couple games that would suggest that the Cats are capable of beating a quality opponent. Though Duke doesn't pose as big of a risk as some of the opponents lurking on NU's schedule, I think that they have the upper hand in terms of the passing game, which is going to be the difference in this game. I expect Jones to pick apart the young secondary and Duke to put up a couple of quick touchdowns. This will force NU to put the ball in the air. Neither Thorson nor the offensive line is good enough at this point in the year to execute passing plays when the opponent knows that they are going to throw the ball. Because of this, I expect the Cats to lose by a couple of touchdowns. I'd love to be proved wrong, however. Pick: Duke 24 Northwestern 10.
