EVANSTON-Northwestern’s oft-repeated philosophy is to go 1-0 each week. In fact, Justin Jackson repeated the mantra almost verbatim when he said that “the season is 12 different opportunities to go 1-0.”
“This week we have an opportunity to beat Duke and that’s what we are going to focus on. It’s as simple as that,” said Northwestern’s star running back.
However, with two unexpected losses in their rearview mirror, it is clear that this week’s “1-0” has taken on more importance than your average non-conference game for the Wildcats. To know how important, all you have to do is look at the rest of the schedule.
The Wildcats’ slate looks difficult enough at face value. Add the fact that they have been beaten by a MAC and FCS team so far, and it looks even more daunting. With nine, instead of eight, Big Ten games on the docket this season, Northwestern is running out of time to right the ship. If this is not a must-win game, it’s as close as one can come for a non-conference game in mid-September.
Take a look at what looms after the Blue Devils. The Wildcats open Big Ten play on Sept. 24 at home against Nebraska, a team that features hot quarterback (Tommy Armstrong) and the No. 9 running defense in the nation.
Then comes the meat grinder of October, when Northwestern has to go to Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State, with only a home game against a dangerous Indiana squad breaking up the road trips. Iowa has beaten the Wildcats three straight times, the last two by a combined score of 88-17. Even though Michigan State lost Connor Cook, Shilique Calhoun and several other big names, they are still Michigan State -- fast and physical. Indiana is averaging 32.0 points per game, more than double Northwestern’s 14.0. As for Ohio State -- well, let’s just say that the Wildcats haven’t won in Columbus since 1971 and leave it at that.
Once the Wildcats get to November, a No. 9 Wisconsin team that already has a win over then-No. 5 LSU awaits, before they close the schedule with a manageable stretch of Purdue and Minnesota on the road, and Illinois at home.
Northwestern is, for some inexplicable reason, a hefty 6.5-point favorite against Duke. After that, they will be underdogs in every contest, except perhaps Indiana, until the Purdue game on Nov. 12. It’s not easy to foresee a lot of wins in there unless something drastically changes, and only a Pollyanna can confidently predict the Wildcats will reach the six Ws it takes to earn a bowl berth.
Fitzgerald, only wanting to go 1-0, declined to look past Saturday’s game against the Blue Devils. “Where we’re at right now, I think predicting and projecting is a waste of my time,” he said.
It’s true that the Wildcats could be a completely different team in a couple weeks, especially if they could figure out how to block up front. And historically, they have both won and lost a game or two they shouldn’t have most seasons -- last year being a notable exception.
But even if they do flip the script and go on a roll, they face an uphill climb logistically if they are going to make a bowl game. The front-loaded Big Ten schedule required that the Wildcats stack wins early; instead they dug themselves a hole.
But beyond the wins and losses, the Duke game has taken on an imperative role from a mental standpoint. Simply put, the Wildcats need to play well just to build some confidence heading into the grueling conference slate.
College football is a game of momentum and Northwestern has seen theirs evaporate over the past two weeks. All of the personal records set in the weight room, all of the accolades from the BTN crew during August camp and all of those Anthony “The Franchise” Walker lunch boxes don’t mean anything now. Those two home defeats to underdogs have wiped them out.
As losses accumulate, players have a tendency to press, and their performances can get even worse. This may be especially true for Northwestern, as they are very young at key positions, especially cornerback, where they have a sophomore (Montre Hartage) making his third start and a redshirt freshman (Trae Williams) making his first.
Veteran leader C.J. Robbins said that in order to improve performance, “you have to look forward and not dwell on the past.” It is imperative for Clayton Thorson, whose turnover in the final moments against Western Michigan cost NU the game, and the offensive line, whose poor performance was largely blamed for the Illinois State loss, to not focus on past mistakes but instead look to the future.
According to Fitzgerald, the only way that happens is, “You coach the heck out of them and you influx competition (for the starting job).”
There is a lot riding on this game both psychologically and practically if the Wildcats hope to go somewhere warm for the winter. If there is any solace for exasperated NU fans, it is that there is precedent for such a turnaround.
Jackson pointed that out in the press conference that in 2014 Northwestern lost the first two games of the season, against Cal and Northern Illinois. The Wildcats were home favorites in both, and lost both contests in lackluster fashion -- not too differently than they played in the first two games this season. From there, the Wildcats turned things around and went on to win the next three games, against Western Illinois, 4-0 Penn State and No. 16 Wisconsin.
“Obviously, the first two games didn’t go the way we wanted, and then we ended up winning the next three games against some pretty good teams,” said Jackson. “So we know what’s possible.”
There are differences, of course -- both the 2014 and 2016 teams lost to a MAC foe, but losing to Cal if a far cry from losing to Illinois State. And that 2014 squad had gone 5-7 the year before and didn’t have nearly the expectations that this year’s edition has coming off of a 10-3 campaign.
But still, that 2014 team showed just how quickly fortunes can change. Only time will tell if this band of Wildcats has the same resilience.
