The Big Ten West title will be on the line when No. 10 Wisconsin travels to Evanston to take on No. 19 Northwestern on Saturday in a battle of unbeatens.
Here are five themes for this week.
It’s going to be ‘tough sledding’ on the ground for NU: Northwestern rushed for 325 yards in the season-opening demolition of Maryland, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Since then, however, the running game has been stuck in neutral.
Over the last three games, the Wildcats averaged 2.4 yards per carry against Iowa, 3.8 against Nebraska and a season-low 2.0 against Purdue. Northwestern ran the ball 40 times at Purdue and gained just 80 yards against a defense that had allowed 195 rushing yards to Iowa and 177 to Illinois.
“We have not been consistent enough,” said head coach Pat Fitzgerald on Monday.
He went on to list reasons for his team’s lack of production on the ground against Purdue, including “missing aiming points” up front and failing to “take advantage of some things” against a Boiler defense that loaded the box against them. Center Sam Gerak talked about the offensive line’s pad level and hand placement as fundamentals crucial to the running game’s success.
Fitzgerald promised that his team would “work our butts off” to improve. They’d better, because they will be facing the best defense they will see all year in Wisconsin.
“It’s going to be tough sledding” trying to run against the Badgers, admitted Fitzgerald.
The Badgers are sixth in the nation against the run and rank No. 1 in both scoring (9.0 ppg) and rushing (89.0) defense in the Big Ten.
(And it’s not like you can just air it out against them, either: they also rank No. 1 in total and passing defense. If there were any more categories, they would probably lead in those, too.)
Wisconsin has only played two games, just half of Northwestern’s total, and they haven’t exactly faced a Murderer’s Row in Illinois and Michigan. But they’ve looked awfully impressive in allowing just 18 points to those two teams.
Fitzgerald thinks they are more than just the best unit in the conference.
"They're the best defense in the Big Ten and probably the best defense in the country," he said.
The defense will have its hands full, too: Northwestern would like to get that running game going on Saturday to eat some clock and keep Wisconsin’s offense off the field because the Badgers’ offense has been as good as their defense.
Wisconsin ranks No. 1 in the Big Ten in scoring (47.0 ppg) offense and is second to Ohio State in total offense (449 ypg). Freshman quarterback Graham Mertz ranks second in the Big Ten in passing efficiency (201.4). He has completed 74.4% of his passes, with seven touchdowns against zero interceptions.
Unlike in years past, the Badgers don’t have a Jonathan Taylor, Melvin Gordon or Montee Ball as their bell cow running back this season. But they do have an effective group of runners who rank – you guessed it – No. 1 in the Big Ten with 261.5 rushing yards per game. Their top three backs – Nakia Watson, John Chenal and Danny Davis – combine to average 134.5 rushing yards per game.
How about this for spreading the wealth? Wisconsin ran for 341 yards against Michigan without a single back breaking 100 yards on the day.
Fitzgerald pointed out a couple other weapons that Wisconsin typically features: talented tight ends and an offensive line that “punishes you up front.”
"We've got our hands full…both games they executed almost to perfection," said Fitzgerald. "In my opinion, they've played absolutely lights out."
Ramsey has earned his team’s trust: If you look at Northwestern quarterback Peyton Ramsey’s statistics this season, they won’t blow you away. He ranks 12th in the Big Ten with 180.8 passing yards per game. His completion percentage of 65.8% is eye-opening, but his TD-INT ratio is just six to four.
Those numbers don’t begin to paint the picture of Ramsey, however. He has been clutch, and he excels at giving the Wildcats what they need, when they need it, according to Fitzgerald, whether it’s on third down, fourth down or scoring a touchdown.
“(Players) have complete and total trust and confidence in Peyton,” says Fitzgerald. Wide receiver Riley Lees concurred, saying that “there’s an element of trust that he’s going to do his job.”
Ramsey has certainly earned that trust. Take last Saturday, against Purdue.
After Ramsey threw an interception that set Purdue up with good field position, the Boilers faced a fourth-and-2 in NU territory. QB Aidan O’Connell threw a short pass over the middle to tight end Garrett Miller that turned into a 40-yard touchdown because of a blown assignment.
The Cats, who seemed to have the game in their control, were now tied 10-10. Momentum had shifted.
Ramsey responded by going 7-for-7 passing on the ensuing drive, including a perfectly thrown 18-yard touchdown on a fade route to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman. The Wildcats took a 17-10 lead and wouldn’t trail again.
One of the keys to Ramsey’s success has been his ability to let mistakes go, says Fitzgerald. Often, quarterbacks dwell on their interceptions and let it affect their performance going forward. Fitzgerald said it hampered Northwestern’s quarterbacks throughout a disastrous 3-9 2019 season.
But not Ramsey. A Big Ten veteran with 27 starts and 64 touchdown passes under his belt, Ramsey forgets his miscues and focuses on the next snap.
And, Fitzgerald adds, “His positive decision making way outnumbers some of the tough plays that he’s made.”
The Cats are more battle-tested than the Badgers: While Northwestern and Wisconsin are both undefeated, there’s no question that the Wildcats have taken the tougher road to get to Saturday’s showdown.
The Badgers beat two teams, Illinois and Michigan, who are a combined 2-6. The Wildcats’ foes, meanwhile, are 7-6 overall and, more amazingly, have yet to lose a game after getting beaten by Northwestern. Maryland and Iowa are both 2-0 since losing to the Wildcats, Nebraska is 1-0 and Purdue has yet to play since suffering their first loss of the season last Saturday.
The Wildcats blew out Maryland by 40, but since then they’ve won three-straight one-score games – 21-20 over Iowa, 21-13 over Nebraska and 27-20 over Purdue. Twice they had to come back from a second-half deficit to do it.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, has coasted, beating Illinois 45-7 and Michigan 49-11. They have yet to experience any adversity on the field – though they have off the field, battling a coronavirus outbreak that canceled two games on their schedule.
If the score is tight late in the game, Fitzgerald thinks his squad will have an edge.
“We've won close games,” he said. “We're battle-tested. We're confident we can go the distance.”
Northwestern’s defense is the real deal: Fitzgerald said that Northwestern has yet to play a complete game in all three phases this season. While the offense has been up-and-down recently and even special teams have made a few mistakes, the coach can depend on his defense every week to lead the team.
The Wildcats currently rank second in the Big Ten in scoring (14.0 ppg), total (301.8 ypg) and rushing (91.8) defense and fifth against the pass (210.0 ypg). (Unfortunately, the team that sits atop all four of those categories is Wisconsin.) They’re also tied for second in the league with eight interceptions.
How stingy has the defense been? They rank seventh in the nation in scoring defense and the 56 points they’ve allowed through four Big Ten games is the fewest for the program since 1995.
Northwestern lost its claim to fame last week by allowing Purdue to become the first team to score against them in the second half, but Fitzgerald said he was happy the scoreless streak ended so people will stop asking him about it.
Good defense is nothing new for the Wildcats under Fitzgerald, of course. It’s what he’s built his program around. He said the keys to its success over the years has been consistency, and that it all starts at the top.
"It starts and ends with (defensive coordinator) Mike Hankwitz,” said Fitzgerald. “He's as good a coach as there is in the country, regardless of position."
The difference in his defense this year has been competitive depth, according to Fitzgerald. He said that they’re playing as many guys as they ever have on the defensive line and in the secondary.
Up front, the Wildcats lost starting defensive end Samdup Miller in August when he opted out of the 2020 season. Starting defensive tackle Trevor Kent has yet to play a down all year and rotational DT Jason Gold has been out since the opener with an injury. Yet the Wildcats’ defensive line hasn’t skipped a beat.
In the secondary, redshirt freshman safety Brandon Joseph – who wouldn’t even be starting if Travis Whillock hadn’t opted out before the season – leads the team with three interceptions. Youngsters AJ Hampton, Cameron Mitchell and Rod Heard were all on the field in crunch time against Purdue.
Linebacker Chris Bergin, who leads Northwestern in tackles with 36 and also has an red-zone interception, knows that Wisconsin is the biggest challenge the defense has faced thus far. But he’s not overthinking things.
“You can’t do too much thinking, we just have to react,” he said. “Get to the ball and good things will happen. That philosophy is tried and true.”
