So, who are these Wildcats? After their season-opening win over Nebraska, we thought they might be a team able to work Northwestern’s customary even-year magic.
But two things happened since then that have given us pause. For one, the Wildcats got beat by Duke, at home, as a 10-point favorite. And the value of that win over Nebraska is falling faster than the stock market after the Huskers scuffled with North Dakota, and then got whipped last Saturday by Georgia Southern so bad they fired coach Scott Frost the following day -- even though they could have waited three weeks and saved $7.5 million in buyout money.
On Saturday, Northwestern faces an 0-2 Southern Illinois squad from the FCS at Ryan Field. The Salukis have lost to Incarnate Word and Southeast Missouri State, but they are better than their record. They were a playoff team last year, when they lost to Kansas State by just eight points.
A win over the Salukis won’t earn the Wildcats any style points, but it could help build some confidence moving forward. A loss, however, would...well, let's not think about that.
What do we want to see out of Northwestern on Saturday? An easy and impressive win for starters. But here are our other ideas:
Start fast: This is as obvious as Donald Trump needing a better filing system. Northwestern has had an issue with slow starts for years now. In last week’s loss to Duke, they were down by three touchdowns just 33 seconds into the second quarter. Even in the season-opening win over Nebraska, they fell behind 14-3 out of the gate.
Head coach Pat Fitzgerald can’t really explain it. He says they emphasize it every day in practice, but it’s not carrying over to Saturday. At the start of the games, the Wildcats look listless and slow. Both Nebraska and Duke scored touchdowns on their first drives against the Cats. Duke had more yards on their first three drives than they did the rest of the game.
On Saturday, it would be nice to see Northwestern go right down the field for a score on its first possession, and keep Southern Illinois out of the end zone when the Salukis get the ball.
Don’t give up big plays: Nothing takes the wind out of the sails of a defense more than surrendering an explosive play. And the Wildcats have given up yards in chunks in both of their games. Big chunks.
Nebraska had a 32-yard pass and a 46-yard run for touchdowns, as well as a 58-yard pass. Duke had a 42-yard run for a TD, and 51- and 81-yard pass plays.
Fitzgerald said on Monday that there were three missed tackles on Duke’s 42-yard touchdown run, and he saw “one-man breakdowns” on other big plays. Yes, there were mitigating circumstances on a couple of them against Duke, including a deflected pass that went right to the receiver on the 51-yarder. But there’s no denying that giving up explosive plays is a problem. This was something we saw all too often last season and needs to get fixed in Jim O’Neil’s second year in charge of the defense.
As a team, Northwestern is giving up an average of 7.0 yards per play. That’s the worst in the Big Ten by almost a yard.
Put up some big numbers on offense: While we would normally say Northwestern should pound the ball against an FCS opponent, SIU is the most blitz-heavy team NU will see this season. They run a high-risk, high-reward defense that likes to roll the dice. That’s why teams rush for just 78.5 yards per game against them but pass for an eye-popping 391.5. Opponents have scored 10 of their 12 touchdowns through the air. Ryan Hilinski should have a field day, and the Cats may have to throw to set up the run.
At the same time, when Northwestern needs to run the ball, their line should be able to dominate the smaller Salukis up front. SIU has a couple of big defensive tackles, but their starting DEs both weigh around 250 pounds. Their linebackers average less than 220 pounds and they will start a 205-pounder at outside linebacker. The Wildcats’ O-line looked dominant in the opener, but that performance has lost a lot of its luster after Georgia Southern racked up 642 total yards and 45 points against the Huskers D last week.
Incarnate Word put up 64 points and 550 yards against SIU. Southeast Missouri scored 34 and generated 332 of their 390 yards through the air. Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, the Northwestern offense that is averaging more than 500 yards a game should move the ball and score at will.
Create havoc defensively: We want to see Wildcats making plays in the backfield. The Northwestern defensive line’s superior athleticism should be on full display on Saturday. SIU’s offensive line has decent size, but foot speed is where there should be some separation.
Last week against Duke, Northwestern had just one TFL, a sack by Adetomiwa Adebawore, who also had the team's lone quarterback hurry. Through two games, NU’s average of 2.5 TFL per game ranks 122nd in the nation. Their total of three sacks is tied for the fewest in the Big Ten. The bottom line: the Cats aren't making havoc plays.
Northwestern’s secondary has been shaky with young players like Jaheem Joseph and Garnett Hollis thrust into significant playing time for the first time. Nothing helps the back half more than a pass rush.
Get off the field on third down: Northwestern’s defense has given up a lot of big plays, but they also have problems getting off the field when given the opportunity.
Nebraska converted a ridiculous 9 of 16 third downs against the Wildcats. Duke last week was 4 of 10 – though the Blue Devils only faced one third down on their first three scoring drives because they were averaging more than 14 yards per play.
After two games, Northwestern is allowing a 50% conversion rate on third down. That ranks 117th in the nation and is pretty much untenable for a defense.
Against SIU, they should be able to cut that percentage by more than half.
