The Skinny: Northwestern vs. Purdue

Northwestern vs. Purdue

Place: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind.

Line: Purdue -1.5

Date: Thursday August 30, 2018

Time: 7 pm CST

TV: ESPN

Last year: NU won 23-13 in Evanston in the 10th game of the season

Last game here: NU won 45-17 in 2016

Last four: 2014: NU 38-14, 2015: NU 21-14, 2016: NU 45-17, 2017: NU 23-13

Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is known for his vigorous offenses and when he has the right triggerman his teams can light up the scoreboard. This year he has two quarterbacks, but that could amount to a disadvantage in this first game of the season. Junior Elijah Sindelar threw the ball 60 times (62%) for 376 yards against the Wildcats last year, with two TDs and an INT. He has the physical tools (6-foot-4, 226 pounds), but does he have the receivers?

Sophomore WRs Jackson Anthrop and Jared Sparks are solid in the pass-catching department, and true frosh jitterbug Rondale Moore – their prize four-star recruit this offseason – has been making plays in both the run game and the pass game during fall camp. Anthrop and Moore play the inside (slot) receiver positions well, but Purdue is still looking for some viable outside threats. Sophomore Jared Sparks has been the most consistent, but seniors Terry Wright and Issac Zico are expected to “Boiler Up” and help generate some gold. Look for true freshmen Kory Taylor (6-foot-5) or Jordan Bonner (6-foot-2) to provide height in third-down/goal line situations as well.

The Boilermaker offense was fifth in the Big Ten in pass efficiency offense last year (NU was 7th defensively) and returns nine starters, which should allow them to match or exceed that mark this season. They’ll be going against a Northwestern secondary featuring two new safety starters. One might think this could be an advantage for the Boilers; however, Purdue was 11th in the conference in sacks given up last year (33) while NU was sixth in sacks (32), with junior DE Joe Gaziano leading the conference in that category.

The NU line is deep and the Purdue line, while experienced, is a slight health concern heading into this season. If the Wildcats can get to the pocket regularly, Brohm might employ his other option at QB, senior David Blough, to counter it. Blough brings a slightly better huddle presence, can extend plays with his feet and gives Purdue an RPO threat that could help to neutralize the swarming Cats D. Blough has been known to do too much at times through the air, and this is when Northwestern can cash in, especially with ball-hawking safeties like senior Jared McGee and sophomore J.R. Pace and senior All-Big Ten CB Montre Hartage.

The area where the Boilermakers may best expose the Cats are with their TEs, junior Brycen Hopkins (6-foot-5, 240 pounds) and senior Cole Herdman (6-foot-4, 245 pounds). They should be a focal point of the QBs up the seam or in the intermediate zones between the corners and safeties, where they pose potential mismatches.

Trickeration and gadgetry is in Brohm’s DNA, so in this first game of the season, expect at least two of these type plays – for example, a wide receiver reverse pass from Anthrop or Sparks (a former QB) against this blooming NU secondary.

Purdue’s run game was pretty successful last season and should carry three good RBs into this game (Richie Worship is out with a lower body injury). The best is D.J. Knox, who averaged 6.2 ypc last season, and Markell Jones should also factor in, as well as Tario Fuller, though his health (foot injury) is being guarded. All of them have been slightly banged up and getting a conservative amount of physical reps. So much so that redshirt freshman walk-on Alexander Horvath has gotten most of the live action this spring and fall, convincing Brohm to find a role for him.

According to Bill Connelly’s FootballStudyHall.com metrics, Purdue had a rushing success rate of 46% – meaning they gained 50-plus percent of yards needed on first down, 70-plus on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth – which was good for 27th nationally. Northwestern however, bettered that on defense, limiting their opponents to a 36-percent success rate, good for 20th overall. As long as NU’s interior guys like senior Jordan Thompson, junior Alex Miller and the able depth behind them can keep Purdue’s offensive linemen off of All-Big Ten MLB Paddy Fisher, freeing him and fellow backers Nate Hall and Blake Gallagher to scrape and make tackles, NU’s defense will suppress a debilitated Purdue run-game.

Despite being an improved offense overall, Purdue’s numbers in Big Ten play last season ranked near the bottom half of the conference in most pertinent categories. Perhaps the most crippling for the Gold and Black was their difficulty finishing drives once inside their opponents’ 40-yard line (as evidenced in last year’s game in Evanston). If Northwestern can follow defensive coordinator, Mike Hankwitz’s plan of limiting any scoring to field goals, then give the advantage to NU.

Key rankings

Purdue offensive players you'll get to know

2 QB Elijah Sindelar (Jr): 56.8% comp., 2099 yards, 18-7 TD-INT ratio

11 QB David Blough (Sr): 65% comp., 1103 yards, 9-4 TD-INT ratio

33 WR Jackson Anthrop (So): 47 rec., 9 ypc, 5 TDs

4 WR Rondale Moore (Fr): DNP- High School last year

1 RB DJ Knox (Sr): 561 yards, 6.2 ypc, 2 TDs

88 TE Cole Herdman (Sr): 20 rec., 16.5 ypc, 3 TDs

89 TE Brycen Hopkins (Jr): 25 rec., 14 ypc, 3 TDs

53 C Kirk Barron (Sr): 26 career starts; Rimington (Center) Watch List

As head coach Pat Fitzgerald said at Monday’s press conference, Northwestern fans will finally learn who the starting quarterback is at “8:06 Eastern time.” Most expect it will be Clayton Thorson.

After suffering a freak ACL injury in the second quarter of last season’s Music City Bowl, the Wildcats’ projected NFL draft pick has spent the off-season rehabbing to get ready to return for a fifth year, a decision he made just ten days before his mishap. If Thorson is behind the center, the Wildcat offense will be that much more potent. Though Thorson had some issues getting rid of the football last season – something he takes responsibility for – he said that the injury has forced him to work on his mechanics more and that he is throwing the ball better than ever.

Thorson will have one of the most experienced lines in the Fitzgerald era protecting him this season, and Brohm has expressed concern in his defense’s pass rush, saying they are just not there yet. They are very young up front, so give the edge to NU’s front.

You can expect an improvement in Thorson’s efficiency from a year ago, and helping him will be a deep group of receivers who have a heightened responsibility to support their talented quarterback. Two that stand out are junior Bennett Skowronek and senior Flynn Nagel. The two have caught a total of 17 passes for 253 yards in two games against these Boilermakers and will look to continue the trend. Skowronek from Ft. Wayne, Ind., will get the chance, yet again, to make an impression to his family and friends in attendance.

Thorson did a much better job last season spreading the ball to all parts of the field through an array of passcatchers. Keep an eye out for sophomores Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, Riley Lees and Kyric McGowan to shake the defense in the open field and over the middle. We expect superback Cameron Green to lend even more snap to the air strike this year too.

Purdue’s defense, which was much improved and lauded by many analysts last year, did finish 11th in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense. Now they must replace four of their back seven and these newbies will become baptized quickly against a Northwestern offense that brings back seven starters and a lot of qualified depth.

Questions about the pass rush puts even more pressure on a Purdue secondary that’s also an area of concern. They graduated their top two CBs from last year but coaches say two fifth-year seniors – Tim Cason and Antonio Blackmon – have muscled into those top spots this fall. Competition is tight, though, with two pretty tough redshirt freshmen pushing them. Dedrick Mackey is a good cover guy with interception skills, while Kenneth Major is more of a physical defender who likes to mix it up with receivers, carrying a bit of swagger that Brohm likes to promote. They are helped by two returning safeties, senior Jacob Thieneman and junior Navon Mosley, who both finished in the top five in tackles. Behind these guys, they are thin at the position, but freshman Elijah Ball has been impressing so far, playing three different positions.

Northwestern has lacked a true home-run threat the past couple years, and that was no more evident than last season, when the Cats finished 120th nationally in explosive plays. What they lack in bang, they make up for with balance, and this year’s NU offense should be productively balanced.

The loss of Northwestern all-time leading rusher Justin Jackson will be relieved by the play of Jeremy Larkin and John Moten early on. Both have good feet and a good second gear once they break to the second level. Larkin is unexpectedly physical, playing bigger than he looks. Purdue has a good run-plugger in junior DT Lorenzo Neal (son of the former NFL player by the same name). Neal is a two-year starter who can clog the middle and draw double teams. Beyond him, though, they are a work in progress up front, with Kai Higgins and Giovanni Reviere manning the ends, and Anthony Watts joining Neal between them. Don’t be surprised to see early enrollee Jeff Marks to get some time at DE as well.

LB Markus Bailey has been one of the team’s top tacklers (and maybe the Big Ten’s second most underrated linebacker behind NU’s Hall) in his first two years. He caused 15 havoc plays a year ago to go with 17 run stuffs. He should be joined by Derrick Barnes and Cornel Jones on the outside, but both will be tested by the crossing routes in the passing game and potency in the NU run game.

Purdue co-DC Nick Holt has been a coordinator on some pretty good defenses and has always had the respect of Fitzgerald. They are, however, “inexperienced”, stat-wise, returning only three of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago, and their youth raises a concern for a potential lack of maturity. The coaches have positive expectations, but it may take a little time, and time doesn’t help in the opener.

Key rankings

Purdue players you will get to know

21 MLB Markus Bailey (Jr): 89 tkls, 7 sacks, 4 TFLs

9 NG Lorenzo Neal (Jr): 22 tkls, 3.5 TFLs, 1 QB hurry

55 OLB Derrick Barnes (So): 16 tkls, 0.5 TFL

41 FS Jacob Thieneman (Sr): 80 tkls, 2 sacks, 3 TFLs, 2 PBUs, 2 INTs

27 SS Navon Mosley (Jr): 65 tkls, 1 TFL, 3 PBUs, 2 INTs

1 CB Dedrick Mackey (RSFr): Scout Team Def POY last year; 2 INTs in spring game

92 DE Giovanni Reviere (RSFr): DNP (redshirted); 6’5”, 270; (a lot of buzz this offseason)

In the opening game of every season, there is even more concern for special teams. And in a game that should be close, this will be in even sharper focus.

Purdue was really lacking in this operation last season. They finished last in the Big Ten in KRs, PRs and (Net) kickoff coverage. The return game should get a boost from Moore, especially in the punt return game, as he returned a couple punts for scores as a high school senior last year. This may not come easy, though, as Northwestern has not allowed a punt return for a TD in six years, and yielded just 5.8 yards per return last season. New Wildcat punter Jake Collins averaged 40.1 yards per punt, with seven punts of 50-plus yards (long of 62) and 15 punts fair caught, 19 of them inside the 20.

On the flip side, Northwestern gets their all-time leading kick returner back in Solomon Vault – though he was not listed on the depth chart released Monday and John Moten was the No. 1 returner. The Wildcats were 10th in the Big Ten in KRs in 2017, but fourth in 2016 and second in 2015, when Vault was healthy.

Punting was the Boilermakers’ best area, with Joe Schopper proving consistent and limiting returns – 96 percent of his punts had to be either fair-caught or ended up pinning opponents inside the 20. He also converted three fake punts, again demonstrating to Brohm’s calculated risk strategy.

NU will have a decided edge in placekicking, as Charlie Kuhbander connected on 13 of 16 field goals and all but one PAT (it was blocked). He didn’t attempt a kick beyond 40 yards last season, but that was premeditated restraint by his head coach and not because of any personal deficiency. Look for Fitzgerald to give more liberty to his All-Big Ten talent kicker in the opener, taking needed points on the road when necessary.

Purdue has two kickers but would like to find the one. J.D. Dellinger and Spencer Evans were 17-of-24 overall, but just 3-of-10 from beyond 40 yards. Most accounts suggest that the stronger-legged Evans should get the nod, with Dellinger possibly redshirting.

- Purdue played better in the second and third quarters, which shows Brohm’s and his staff’s ability to make proper adjustments. Northwestern was better in the third and fourth quarters, so as long as they keep things close we give the advantage here to the Wildcats.

- Purdue had the BTN crew out filming their practices on “Gold and Black Days” during their fall camp. Will that be a distraction?

- Purdue did a pretty good job limiting their opponents’ scoring once they got inside the 40 yard-line, finishing 29th in the country in that area. Northwestern was even better, though, ranking sixth.

The key for Purdue’s defense will be limiting the Wildcats to drives of six plays or less and forcing the NU defense to work a lot of snaps on that hot, humid field. Whether Thorson plays or not, Purdue will need to load the box and force the Wildcats to beat them through the air, which is not Northwestern’s primary strength.

Northwestern will need a 200-yard performance on the ground. If one of their backs (namely, Larkin) can attain 100 yards against this inexperienced defense, that will be a sign of producing as they should.

Offensively, Purdue needs to find a way to get Moore the ball. Brohm had high praise for the former Texas commitment this fall, pointing out that they’d like to incorporate him as diversely as they can, assuming he can quickly learn the offense and be employable. He is the fastest guy on Purdue’s squad, so to unleash his lightning would further electrify this offense. Beating the budding NU secondary deep would also sorely dent their psyche, particularly early in the game.

Northwestern will want to use their biggest defensive strength and collapse the pocket with their front 4 or 5 (a LB or nickel back) and guys like Gaziano, Miller, Samdup Miller, Earnest Brown and Trent Goens. NU will succeed by trying to keep things between the hashes and in front, then clamping down and forcing this offense to kick field goals or eventual fourth-down attempts.

In the Big Ten, success typically comes to the teams that can run the ball and play good defense. Teams are historically unpolished in their first games, so it comes down to who is better conditioned and who can best limit their mistakes. Fitzgerald has made mention of more focused attention to not pushing his team to hard early in camp to improve their slow starts to the last two seasons (0-2 in 2016 and 2-3 in 2017).

Both teams are pretty well coached and disciplined, so we go back to the run game and defense. Northwestern has the edge in both categories, so we can expect the same on the scoreboard. Regardless, this prime time contest will be an entertaining game to start the season on ESPN.

Chappy’s Pick: Northwestern 27 Purdue 20

- Fitzgerald is 6-3 vs. Purdue (3-1 in West Lafayette) and has won the last four matchups.

- Brohm is 4-0 in home openers (3-1 in true season openers, with only loss coming at a neutral site vs. No. 16 Louisville and reigning Heisman Trophy Trophy winner Lamar Jackson last season), with his offenses averaging 37 ppg in those four season openers.

- Purdue has won 14 straight home openers, but only one of those wins came against a Power Five school (6-6 Syracuse in 2004).

- Northwestern ranked fifth in the Big Ten in red zone offense last year, while Purdue was fifth in red zone defense.

- Purdue ranked third in red zone offense last year, while Northwestern was third in red zone defense.

- Purdue won their last three games of 2017, beating Iowa (on the road), Indiana, and Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl. Northwestern has won a Power Five-high eight consecutive games, including beating Kentucky in the Music City Bowl.

Tim Chapman is a teacher and former Michigan high school football coach who is currently working on a book titled "ChampioN Underdog" about the 1995 Northwestern Rose Bowl team. Follow him on Twitter: @Champion_Lit.