Published Nov 26, 2020
If I Were A Betting Man: Week 13 picks
Bill Trocchi  •  Rivals.com
Staff

We’ve got three weeks left before most of the league championship games kick into gear on Dec. 19. Use this information as wisely as you can while all teams are still in action as we look at how some teams are faring against the spread in this most difficult of years to predict (although the Betting Man is still proudly over .500).

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Trustworthy teams doing you right

The two Cinderella stories in the Big Ten — Northwestern and Indiana — are not surprisingly kicking it against the spread with the Wildcats (4-0-1) and Indiana (5-0) a spiffy 9-0-1. Others covering at least 75 percent of the time (and playing a reasonable amount of games to this point) are Wake Forest (6-1), Arkansas (6-2), BYU (6-2-1), West Virginia (6-2), Virginia (6-2) and Oklahoma (6-2), which is perceived as an underachiever this year but has covered five weeks in a row with an average margin of victory of 26 points.

Middle-tier surprises

LSU has fallen off a cliff, and Notre Dame has risen higher than most thought, yet both are .500 against the spread. Iowa State, the surprise leader of the Big 12, and Texas A&M, which is in the playoff discussion, also check in at .500 each. Vanderbilt, which appears on its way to its first winless season, sports a 4-3 record ATS after covering three straight spreads by double-digits (watch out this week, Missouri).

Only things they are covering are their eyes

Not much was expected of Kansas, and the Jayhawks have managed to match their 0-7 on-the-field record with an 0-7 ATS record. Penn State can also make this claim after five games. Clemson, losers of just one game in double overtime, surprisingly sits at 2-6 ATS. Another team to avoid betting on is Dabo Swinney's favorite enemy, Florida State (2-6), but you knew that already.

Representing the Rivals publishers this week is Jeff Johnson from OStateIllustrated.com, who has seen the Cowboys take on the two Big 12 teams on our slate this week. And none other than The Godfather of college football recruiting himself, Mike Farrell, lends his expertise for the analysts, who are desperately looking to climb toward .500.

Off we go.

Spreads are from Covers.com. All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted and times are ET.

No. 15 Iowa State (+1.5) at No. 20 Texas, noon, ABC, Friday

If you are rooting for a little Big 12 chaos, throw on the burnt orange and start yelling ‘Hook ‘em’ at strangers. A Texas win on Friday creates a four-way in the loss column atop the league heading into the weekend. It feels a bit strange that Texas is favored given the distractions within the program and Iowa State’s demolition of Kansas State last week. But the Friday after Thanksgiving against the first-place team feels like a big stage, and UT quarterback Sam Ehlinger seems to thrive on the big stage. Hook ‘em!

Trocchi: Texas, $100

Johnson: Iowa State

Farrell: Texas

No. 2 Notre Dame (-4.5) at No. 25 North Carolina, 3:30 p.m., ABC, Friday

Notre Dame will be starting two backup offensive linemen, putting a dent in one of the team’s main strengths. The Irish have beaten everyone on the schedule by at least five points, including Clemson, so it seems odd they are favored by just 4.5. North Carolina has scored over 40 points five times, but its defense has given up 44 points or more three times. Notre Dame’s defense will hold serve just enough to keep the Irish undefeated.

Trocchi: Notre Dame, $100

Johnson: Notre Dame

Farrell: North Carolina

No. 22 Auburn (+24.5) at No. 1 Alabama, 3:30 p.m., CBS

You’re supposed to throw the records out in rivalry games, and no rivalry is like the Iron Bowl. But I’m still looking into some recent history. In the last seven matchups, Alabama has been ranked in the top five and has been the higher ranked team, yet sports just a 4-3 record. However, Bama has been a 14-point or more favorite five times since 2011 and is 4-1 against the spread in those games. In other words, when the Tide are supposed to whup ‘em, they whup ‘em. Look for a big number out of Alabama, which is averaging a hearty 49.4 points per game.

Trocchi: Alabama, $100

Johnson: Auburn

Farrell: Auburn

No. 11 Northwestern (-13.5) at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2

We need another ESPN analyst to casually insult the Wildcats. Maybe they can be ‘a bunch of Tom Rinaldis’ this week, no?

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Anyway, I’m hesitant to call for a team to cover almost a two-touchdown spread when it is averaging just 21.5 points in its last four games and leads the Big Ten in punts per game with over six. On the other hand, Michigan State has 16 punts and seven points in its last two games, and it is about to face the best defense in the Big Ten. Northwestern ekes out another cover.

Trocchi: Northwestern, $100

Johnson: Michigan State

Farrell: Northwestern

LSU (+14.5) at No. 5 Texas A&M, 7 p.m., ESPN

You remember the last time LSU visited Kyle Field, or at least Ed Orgeron does. The LSU coach got hit with a premature Gatorade bath after what looked like a game-sealing interception. The pick was overturned, and Coach O had to coach seven overtimes in a sticky purple sweatshirt and walked off the field a loser.

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Safe to say this one won’t go seven OTs, but I’m a little nervous about Texas A&M not having played for two weeks and having the pressure of impressing the playoff committee from here on out. LSU won a hard-fought game at Arkansas last week in a game that was critical to the fragile psyche of these Tigers. Give me LSU to at least cover.

Trocchi: LSU, $100

Johnson: Texas A&M

Farrell: Texas A&M

Week 13 Picks
Iowa St-TexasND-UNCAuburn-BamaNW-MSULSU-TAMU

Trocchi

Texas

ND

Bama

NW

LSU

Johnson

Iowa St.

ND

Auburn

MSU

TAMU

Farrell

Texas

UNC

Auburn

NW

TAMU

Season Standings

Trocchi: 30-23-1, plus $350

Publishers: 27-26-1

Analysts: 19-34-1

When there is a unanimous pick: 8-9-1