Northwestern 2021 Season Preview: Quarterbacks

First in a series of Northwestern position-by-position breakdowns going into the 2021 season.

Northwestern’s offense benefitted from two new arrivals last year -- offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Mike Bajakian, and Indiana transfer quarterback Peyton Ramsey. Ramsey, who admitted he always wanted to play for the Wildcats, led his new team to a 7-2 record, a Big Ten West division title and a Citrus Bowl victory over Auburn. Those marks earned them a No. 10 final ranking, much higher than he ever landed with the Hoosiers.

Bajakian brought the Wildcats improvement in nearly every major offensive category, but as far as quarterback play, he worked to make an already good Ramsey even better, culminating with third-team All-Big Ten honors. Under Coach Jake, the Wildcats finished with their second-best passing TDs-per-game total this decade, their best completion percentage in seven years and their fewest INTs-per-game mark since 2012.

Ramsey decided to move on and not take advantage of the NCAA’s offering of an extra year of eligibility due to the COVID-19 hardship, and we wish him well. But it’s time now to move on to 2021.

Fortunately, the prospects at quarterback still look good, thanks to the return of Bajakian, program familiarity for the returning QBs and yet another highly-touted addition from the transfer portal.

We saw that a transfer quarterback can succeed at Northwestern. Ramsey joined the Wildcats after three seasons as a starter in Bloomington, and actually exceeded his win percentage. And if you ask Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald, that’s really the only stat that matters, because, as he is so fond of saying, “stats are for losers.”

Ramsey was particularly good on first-down passing. He completed 70 percent of his throws on the opening play of a series, tossing five touchdowns to zero interceptions. They threw it 91 times on first down, compared to 93 on second and 85 on third, which begs the question, why didn’t Northwestern throw the ball more on first down?

When the Wildcats needed a first down, they typically got it. NU went from 11th in the Big Ten in first downs in 2019 to third last season. They were also fourth in third-down conversions and second on fourth-downs, most of which were picked up via the pass.

Bajakian’s tutelage helped bring the Wildcats from 130th in the NCAA (dead last) in passing efficiency in 2019 to 91st in 2020. If a similar improvement can occur in 2021, the Wildcats will be in the top half of the nation in just two short seasons.

They were also successful when throwing the ball inside the opposing 10-yard line. Ramsey hit on 9-of-10 passes with eight TDs in those situations! Many of these went to the tight end, which is a position that Bajakian has always loved utilizing in his offense -- but more to come on that later.

Let’s start with their TD-INT ratio of 12-8 last year. This was second-worst in Bajakian’s 10-year tenure as a college offensive coordinator. It ultimately didn’t hurt the Wildcats too much, but the passing game certainly didn’t scare opposing defenses. For the Cats to take the next step in 2021, they’ll need to increase the number of aerial scores, especially with a gun-slinger like South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski. Interestingly enough, their 12 TDs was sixth-most in the Big Ten -- but so were their eight INTs.

Though NU was fourth in the conference in third-down conversions last season, succeeding 39% of the time, Ramsey completed just 52 percent of his passes here, dropping five of his eight INTs in this area. He also threw just one TD, compared to 11 scores on first- and second-downs. Oddly enough he completed 59 percent on third-and-long.

More “sky scores” would be a welcomed addition, especially with the increasing scoring in the conference and some uncertainty with a new defensive coordinator on the other side. While Ramsey was more of a game manager, the incoming Hilinski is much more well-known for his arm, so the future is brimming with optimism.

The quarterback position has been steady for five of the last six years. But the Wildcats have only hit .500 in the transfer market at this position over the last few seasons, with a big hit with Ramsey and thus far a miss on Hunter Johnson. With their third transfer transplant in as many years, they’ll need this one to be a success like Ramsey was, because of youth and lack of proven production at the skill positions (running back and receiver).

Bajakian is a man with a proven track record, and his output should only improve with more time in the program, along with the added talent the Wildcats got from the portal this offseason. If Hilinski can duplicate what he put up in the SEC, this offense will be in good hands. There’s a lot of hope in Hilinski, and hope is something Hilinski is certainly familiar with: hIs family's foundation is named Hilinski's Hope.

The sophomore Hilinski (6-foot-3, 225 pounds; 11 starts at South Carolina) came to Evanston with expectations of being “the guy.” He expects it, the fans expect it and, through a spring of work, his teammates seem like they’re now expecting it.

Though head coach Pat Fitzgerald has made it a tradition not to name a non-returning starter until the 11th hour, smart money is on No. 12. Interestingly, he will be wearing the same number as the graduated Ramsey, and not No. 3, which he specifically requested at South Carolina to honor his late brother, Tyler, but was taken by senior WR JJ Jefferson.

Still, Hilinski chose to come here to be successful. “Their history has been winning games, and that’s what I want to do,” he said in a press conference this spring.

Hilinski was recruited by the Wildcats out of Orange (Calif.) Lutheran High School before choosing, initially, to play in the SEC. He came out as the No. 2 pro-style QB in his class, and Rivals.com ranked him as the 45th-best player overall, after passing for 8,102 yards and 85 TDs as a prep. He was an Elite 11 QB and played in the Under Armour High School All-American game in 2019.

At South Carolina, Hilinski completed 58% of his passes for 2,391 yards (214 ypg), and an 11-5 TD-INT ratio, though he threw 180 straight passes without being picked -- remarkable for a true freshman in the SEC.

During that first year, he had five games where he completed over 59% of his throws, and three of those remarkable games came against some highly ranked teams: Alabama (No. 2), Georgia (No. 3), whom he beat, and Clemson (No. 3). He connected for three TDs and was picked just twice in those three games, and his offenses scored a total of 40 points vs. the Tide and the Bulldogs. He appeared in (really) just one game last year, completing 4 of 6 passes for 34 yards, including a 24-yard strike against a good Texas A&M defense. It boiled down to the politics of new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, who brought his quarterback over from Colorado State when he landed the OC gig in Columbia.

Though Hilinski brings a bit of a funky throwing motion, he has a quick release and puts a lot of zip on his throws. He’s also confident. We saw it right from the spring game in his freshman season at South Carolina; he commands that offense and has a bit of a Zach Wilson-type sanguinity (and look) about him.

Hilinski is not afraid to stay in the pocket and go through his progressions, even against high-caliber defenses like Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson. In watching the film, he sits there and goes through all of his reads without needing to resort to happy feet. He’s also not afraid to put it into tight coverage. He trusts himself and his receivers, which can go a long way to improving this passing offense in Evanston.

He’s also good at play-action and relies a lot on his TEs -- both things that Bajakian likes to use in his offense. Hilinski had the look of an experienced veteran, even as a true freshman in the SEC. He plays with emotion, and his enthusiasm and positive energy are contagious.

He plays better in the first half (62%, 1,380 yards, and 6-2 TD-INT ratio), which will help, as Northwestern offenses have sometimes needed an early spark. He’s also most effective inside the opposing red zone, where he completes 63% of his throws for a 3-1 TD-INT ratio, and has been sacked just once. On third-and-medium (3-7 yards), Hilinski also shines, hitting on 61% of his passes, with three touchdowns to just one pick.

As promising as Hilinski looks, there’s reason to peer over his shoulder at redshirt senior Andrew Marty (6-foot-3, 224 pounds; 1 start). In addition to his experience in this winning program, Marty has been the primary backup the last two seasons and studied behind former Wildcat great Clayton Thorson, before that.

Marty has a very attractive style of play. He’s got moxie and toughness, two traits that any offensive teammate can gravitate toward. He’s not afraid to take a hit or lower his shoulder, and admittedly “loves to run” with the football. He hasn’t been sacked in the last two years, averaging nearly four yards-per-carry with four TDs. It’s not a done deal that Hilinski is the guy (though that’s the confident assumption), but even if he is, Marty certainly gives the Wildcats some interesting options and packages when he enters the game.

There’s also redshirt senior Hunter Johnson (6-foot-2, 215 pounds; 5 starts). Most fans know him as the former five-star recruit that transferred from perennial power Clemson. Unfortunately, personal circumstances have not allowed Johnson to reach his full potential. He appeared in two games last year, but didn’t throw any passes. It might be safe to say he’s the best third-string QB in the conference (maybe even the country), though we are likely to see the famed “OR” spliced between his name and Marty’s on the weekly depth chart for backup duty. Don’t read too much into this, though, as it has become a Fitzgerald staple at several positions.

Sophomore Carl Richardson (6-foot-4, 207 pounds), from Salinas, Calif. is considered by some to be one to keep an eye on. He’s a pro-style QB who was recruited by pass-happy Washington State, as well as Boise State. His arm has caught the eye of some well-respected coaches, and we may see No. 9 move up the depth chart before long.

Redshirt sophomore Zac Krause (6-foot-3, 215 pounds; 0 starts) has added nearly 15 pounds in the offseason, and will continue to take practice reps at QB, as the walkon hones his craft for the future.

The lone newby brought in this year is dual-threat Brendan Sullivan (6-foot-3, 212 pounds) from Davison, Mich. He went 21-2 as a starter, and was a finalist for state player of the year, though he committed early to the Wildcats and enrolled last January. Like others before him, he was a sought-after talent and looks to provide a positive future for the Wildcats.

Tim Chapman is a teacher and former Michigan high school football coach who authored the book "ChampioN Underdog" about the 1995 Northwestern Rose Bowl team (available on Amazon). Follow him via Twitter: @Champion_Lit. Email him at nufbhistorian@gmail.com.