After a tangle of tiebreakers and round-robins in the season's final weeks, Northwestern finished 13th in the Big Ten, good enough to earn a bid to the Big Ten Tournament.
The Wildcats will be squaring off with 12th-seeded Minnesota in the opening round on Wednesday, in a rematch of their game a little more than two weeks ago, when Northwestern shocked the Gophers with a convincing 75-63 win in Minneapolis.
We break down how Northwestern should fare in the rematch in Indianapolis, and their outlook as the postseason begins.
Martinelli v. Garcia II: Round 1 at Minnesota was defined by two of the conference's top six scorers duking it out: Nick Martinelli and Dawson Garcia. Martinelli finished the year as the leading scorer in the Big Ten, with 20.2 points per game, Garcia was a little more than a point behind in fifth with 19.1, but had the edge in rebounds (7.5 to 6.2) and was a very marginally better shooter.
When they first matched up this season, Martinelli went right at Garcia, scoring a game-high 29 points, the most he scored in a Big Ten game this season. Garcia, who at 6-foot-11 is four inches taller than Martinelli, posted 26 points of his own, with nine rebounds.
The Wildcats emerged with the win by putting up one of their best shooting performances of the season. They shot 50% from beyond the arc, banging in nine of triples, led by Martinelli's three.
Both players were awarded Second Team All-Big Ten honors on Tuesday. Although Garcia boosted his point total against the Wildcats late in the game, when the outcome was all but decided, most people would tell you that Martinelli got the upper hand in their head-to-head matchup the first time around. (We also think he should have been a First Team pick as the league's top scorer, but that's a story for another day.)
Martinelli will have his first opportunity to vent his frustration about the snub against the Gophers. Keep an eye on the matchup.
Wildcats will need supporting cast to score to make a run: Northwestern head coach Chris Collins was as blunt as he's been after the loss to Maryland in the season finale, saying the team "didn't do enough" to help Martinelli, who scored 28 points in a 13-point loss.
The Wildcats need a level performance from freshman point guard KJ Windham if they want to start Day One in Indianapolis with a win. At Maryland, the Terrapin defense harried Windham to the tune of 2-for-10 shooting, though he found his way to seven points and four assists. Previously, against the Gophers, Windham played one of his best games, with eight points and seven assists.
Some of that is on the way each game was called. The Terps got a pretty friendly whistle and were able to physically affect the freshman. But Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Rodney Rice won't be in this game, and Windham should be able clearer to get to his spots and find an rhythm and flow against the Gophers.
So should center Luke Hunger. In the win over Minnesota, the Wildcats got 19 points off their bench: eight apiece from Windham and Hunger, plus a 3-pointer from Angelo Ciaravino.
Among the starters, the Wildcats will be looking for more from their senior stalwarts. Ty Berry has been superb these past 10 games, scoring in double figures in seven of the contests. The Wildcats will need 10+ points from him against the Gophers.
The need for increased production is intensified for center Matt Nicholson. He struggled versus the Gophers the first time with just four points, three rebounds and three fouls in 20 minutes. He has averaged just 4.5 points and 4.25 rebounds in the last four games. Northwestern needs their big man back in form if they want to win in this tournament.
No Wildcat besides Martinelli was able to score in double digits against Minnesota the first time, but four of them scored eight or nine points. That balanced scoring added up to a win.
Looking ahead: In a season of so much adversity, the Wildcats and their fans should be wary of counting their chickens before they hatch. However, let's say the Wildcats win their opener on Wednesday. Down the line, their two preset potential opponents would be 5th-seeded Wisconsin in the second round and 4th-seeded UCLA in the third.
Both opponents narrowly escaped with wins at Welsh-Ryan Arena in the lone matchups of the season; Wisconsin won by six, UCLA controversially won by four. Northwestern will be without the boost of their home crowd and on shorter rest, but they have experienced firsthand that even a double-bye doesn't make a team immune to an upset, having lost their opening games in the last two Big Ten Tournaments after two days of rest.
Both of these potential matchups come with long odds for a Wildcat upset. No. 17 Wisconsin stars All-Big Ten First Team selection John Tonje, who scored 27 on the Wildcats when they last met. The sliver of daylight for an upset is that they've had a hitch in their stride heading into the postseason and are just 2-3 in their last five, including a startling 11-point loss to Penn State in Madison on their own Senior Night.
UCLA is unranked at the moment but still a clear NCAA Tournament team and a force to be reckoned with. Their last game was a 27-point crosstown thrashing of USC, the game that locked Northwestern into a Big Ten Tournament spot.
