Northwestern has been in free fall since last meeting with Ohio State

As Northwestern prepares to take on No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday, it’s difficult not to think of the last time the Wildcats played the Buckeyes.

It was in the 2020 Big Ten Championship Game, where the Wildcats put up a valiant fight and held a lead well into the third quarter before falling 22-10. Northwestern then went on to win the Outback Bowl over Auburn to finish 10th in the final AP poll.

Yet here both teams are, less than two years later, matched up again, and they couldn’t be on more different levels. Well, one of them is on a different level, anyway.

Not much has changed for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 8-0 and look well on their way to another trip to the title game in Indianapolis – and probably the College Football Playoff – if they can get past No. 4 Michigan in the season finale.

Northwestern, meanwhile, has the worst record in the Big Ten. The Wildcats haven’t just been on a downward slide the last two years. They’ve fallen off a cliff.

The Wildcats are just 4-16 over the last two seasons, and 2-12 in Big Ten play. They are currently riding a seven-game losing streak that is tied for the longest of head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s tenure. Overall, they’ve lost 13 of their last 14 games dating to last season.

With a win over Ohio State looking about as likely as Kyrie Irving getting invited to Passover, Northwestern’s losing streak will rise to eight, the longest since the 1989 team finished 0-11. The Buckeyes are currently 38.5-point favorites.

So what has happened to Northwestern over the last two years? How has a team that won two Big Ten West titles in three years leading up to 2020, fall so far, so fast?

“We’ve lost games, that’s what’s happened,” said Fitzgerald, matter-of-factly. “You look at the why, it starts with turnover ratio. That’s been a huge component to our lack of wins, and then our explosive play battle, offensively and defensively, collectively. Third, making the plays that need to be made down in crunch time, especially this year…

“We had opportunities to win, frankly, all the games that we’ve been in. We probably didn’t play well enough in the Wisconsin game, frankly, but the rest of the games, we had ample opportunities and we weren’t able to capitalize on that.”

Turnovers have been a thorn in Northwestern’s side all season. The Wildcats’ turnover margin of -9 is tied for 127th out of 131 teams in FBS football. They’ve committed more turnovers than their opponents in six of their seven losses on the year.

As for explosive plays, the Cats have made 10 plays of 30 or more yards and given up 15, so they’re on the wrong side of that equation, too.

However, last Saturday Northwestern held its own in both of those areas and still lost to Iowa 33-13. The Wildcats turned the ball over once, but it came on the last play of the first half, when quarterback Brendan Sullivan just threw a pass up for grabs. It didn’t have any effect, one way or the other. On the other side of the ball, the Hawkeyes didn’t have any play longer than 24 yards.

Yet, despite playing much more cleanly on both sides of the ball, the Wildcats still lost by 20 to what had been statistically the worst offense in the nation. The Hawkeyes’ anemic attack racked up more than their season averages of 14 points and 227 yards by halftime.

Fitzgerald said that the loss to Iowa under those circumstances was “disappointing,” and pointed to missed opportunities on one drive in particular as emblematic or the problems his team has had all season.

The Wildcats converted a couple third downs and reached the Iowa 22-yard line on one first-half possession. But then a holding call and two sacks on the next three plays put them in a fourth-and-36 situation from their own 49. They had to punt the ball away and the Hawkeyes wound up scoring.

“There were a lot of opportunities there where we just didn’t capitalize on, and the same thing on some third-down situations [on defense], where we’ve got a chance to get off the field and we had 10 guys doing what we needed and we had a break down here,” he explained.

“We didn’t sustain drives. We had five first downs on first or second down, they had 19.”

After watching Iowa go up and down the field against their defense, it’s difficult to see the Wildcats being much more than a speed bump against a Buckeye offense scoring nearly 50 points per game. They’re led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, a Heisman Trophy candidate who averages a hair under 300 passing yards per contest and has 29 touchdowns against just four interceptions. He throws to possibly the most talented receiver corps in the nation.

But, as cornerback A.J. Hampton pointed out, “they always have guys like this.” His goal is to get his teammates to “got out there and have fun.”

Fitzgerald is all for that idea. He thinks that many of the Wildcats’ problems stem from players trying to do too much, pressing to make plays.

“Sometimes, less is best,” said Fitzgerald. “Just play within the framework and do your job. Play cleaner. Play smarter. Slow is smooth, and smooth is fast.”

On Saturday, they’ll find out whether they’re fast enough to keep up with Ohio State.