Through eight games, Northwestern is not where it wants to be.
The Wildcats are 3-5 and must win at least three of their final four games if they want to play in a bowl game. To put the season in perspective, NU has more losses by three scores or more than they do total wins. That is not a way to build off an incredible 2020 campaign.
If following up a strong season with a massively disappointing season sounds familiar, it should. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald's program did this just two years ago when they stumbled to a 3-9 record after winning the first Big Ten West championship in school history. After that season, Fitzgerald vowed that "this will never happen again."
Well, as the calendar flips to November 2021, Fitzgerald and his program are staring down the barrel of it happening again.
Northwestern was just trounced on their home field by Minnesota, 41-14. Their losses in Big Ten play have come by margins of 17, 49, 26 and 27 points. The team is missing the passion that it played with last year, the "physicality and violence," that linebacker Chris Bergin talked about after the game.
The 2020 team seemed hellbent on getting back to where they felt they belonged: first place in the Big Ten West. The 2021 edition of the Wildcats doesn't appear to have the same relentlessness.
Last year, NU fell behind 17-0 in the first half on two occasions; they stormed back and took the lead both times. This year, NU has lost every game in which they trailed.
That passion returned for a moment on Saturday, when redshirt senior Andrew Marty was inserted at quarterback. Marty brought an energy back to the team and the Ryan Field crowd. He led the final stage of a drive in the second quarter and threw a touchdown pass.
Northwestern got the ball to start the second half trailing 20-7. Marty had NU on the move into Minnesota territory and offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian dialed up a reverse to wide receiver JJ Jefferson. The play looked like it was there, until it wasn't.
"Defense only gives up 13 points [seven points came on a fumble return] after being on the field a lot, and we fumble the ball on a reverse where we had a hat for a hat," Fitzgerald said.
The Wildcats recovered the fumble but lost six yards, which killed the drive. Had Jefferson held onto the ball and taken advantage of the great blocking NU had set up, NU would have been in a great position to cut into the lead. Instead, they turned the ball over on downs.
Later in the game, receivers Jacob Gill and Genson Hooper-Price let sure first-down grabs slip through their hands.
By that point, the defense was running on fumes, which, unfortunately, is nothing new. Each of the Wildcats' last two opponents have had about a 2:1 advantage in time of possession. While NU has shown the ability to shut things down in the red zone and hold teams to field goal attempts instead of touchdowns, they must find a way to induce more three-and-outs. If not, they will continue to get tired out.
Redshirt sophomore safety Coco Azema has been one of NU's best players this season, according to Fitzgerald. Azema thinks NU's defense is getting better as they're around the ball a lot more. This has a tendency to make good things happen, he said.
Look no further than Brandon Joseph's interception on Saturday. Azema got his hand in to deflect the pass into the air, and Joseph made a diving catch in the end zone to prevent Minnesota from adding any points going into the break.
The biggest struggle for Northwestern defensively this year has been stopping the run. Opponents have been able to move the ball at will against NU's defense on the ground and it has shown little signs of improvement through nine weeks. Three of their last four opponents have put up at least 294 yards rushing, and one of them eclipsed 400. The Wildcats rank 126th in the nation in rushing defense.
That makes it difficult to win games in a run-heavy league.
"You've got to be able to run the ball and stop the run in the Big Ten West, let alone the Big Ten conference," Fitzgerald said.
Running the ball has been less of an issue for Northwestern. Even Hull has been able to find success on the ground and Marty's legs give the offense a weapon that they've lacked all year, the quarterback run game. If NU can control the ball offensively, that's another way to buy some rest time on the sideline for the defense.
Complementary football is something Fitzgerald has harped on in the past, but NU hasn't been able to achieve the delicate balance among all three phases of the game. In order to get that, NU will have to lean on veterans like Sam Gerak, Joe Spivak and Bergin, who will all play their last home games on Saturday.
Fitzgerald has yet to give up on this season. There are four games left for NU to right the ship. Once again, Fitzgerald harped on consistency as the way for NU to start playing better. His goal over the final four games is simple.
"Get to a level of consistency that allows us to win some games," he said.
Not letting 2019 happen again was a talking point heading into the season. After eight games, NU hasn't done anything to dispel those fears. Finding a way to win a few games down the stretch and back up Fitzgerald's 2019 vow is no small feat, but it's the corner the Wildcats have backed themselves into.
