We’ve been starting to get some questions about Northwestern’s 2022 class. Or, more specifically, Northwestern’s lack of a 2022 class.
It’s March 13, and the Wildcats don’t have a single commitment. They’ve been popping up on the short lists of several big-time, four-star 2022 prospects lately, but they haven’t yet received a verbal pledge from anyone.
In comparison, Ohio State has 11 commits, the most in the nation. Twenty schools in the country are already reporting five or more. In the Big Ten, Northwestern is the only school that has yet to receive a commitment.
So the questions being posed are understandable. Should fans be worried? Are the Wildcats far behind their usual pace? What does it all mean?
We took a look at the Wildcats’ first commits under head coach Pat Fitzgerald to answer some of those questions. The answers are no, yes and no, and nothing at all.
First and foremost, there is no reason to be concerned. When you get your first commit doesn’t really matter that much. It’s like getting your driver’s license: you can be the first in line at the DMV on the morning of your 16th birthday, or you can wait a month, six months or a year. It doesn’t really matter when you get it, as long as you get it.
The position where the date matters most is quarterback. Because most programs take just one, the earlier you get one, the better, before your top targets are all off the board. It's no coincidence that four of Fitzgerald's 15 first commitment have been quarterbacks.
Under Fitzgerald, Northwestern’s first commit has come as late as June 17 – but that was in 2010, when recruiting was much different than it is now and moved at a much slower pace.
You can see how much recruiting has accelerated over Fitzgerald’s 15-year tenure. In his first 10 classes in Evanston -- starting in 2007, his first full class -- he received his first commitment by March 13 just twice. But in every one of his five classes since, he had at least one verbal in the fold by this date.
In four of the last five classes, in fact, Northwestern got its first commitment before the end of the previous year -- more than 12 months before signing day. Similarly, the Wildcats had at least two players by this date in four of the last five cycles. (The earliest pledge was Sept. 17, and the most players committed by March 13 was four.)
Here’s the complete list of Northwestern’s first commitment under Fitzgerald. (The asterisks denote a commitment before the end of the previous year.)
Last year, for the 2021 class, Donnie Gray didn’t pull the trigger to become the first Wildcat commitment until March 8. So the Wildcats aren’t too far off of that pace and the class turned out to be a strong one. When you get your first commit had very little bearing on how good the class turns out to be.
There’s the added wrinkle in this cycle that we are still in the midst of a recruiting dead period that has been in effect for a year now and will stretch until at least May 31. Prospects can’t be hosted for visits, unofficial or official, and coaches can’t hit the road to visit and evaluate players in person until after that dead period is lifted.
For Northwestern, which recruits nationally and often brings in players from coast-to-coast, this is a significant barrier. The Wildcat staff’s goal is to get the players on campus, where they can see the Walter Athletic Center and meet the players that Fitzgerald has always called his best recruiters. They can’t do that any longer.
Recruiting, though, continues to go on, as coaches are using Zoom calls, virtual visits and every other technology at their disposal to keep the train moving.
The Wildcats are in as strong a recruiting position as they ever have been right now. Northwestern is the only institution that can say it’s a Top 10 school (No. 9 in the U.S. News & World Report rankings) and a Top 10 football program (No. 10 in the final AP poll for 2020). They are coming off of their second Big Ten West title in three years and a fourth straight bowl win. Fitzgerald just signed a contract that will keep him in Evanston until 2030. They have one of the best facilities in the nation. They will likely have two first-round NFL draft picks next month.
Would they like to have a commitment or two by now? Absolutely. But Northwestern's 2022 class should turn out just fine, no matter when that first commitment comes.