Northwestern still safe after Indiana loss
There’s only one word to describe Northwestern’s loss to Indiana on Saturday night: devastating.
The Wildcats held a 62-55 lead with less than a minute and a half left and looked to have their NCAA tournament-clinching win in hand when the Assembly Hall roof caved in on them. Indiana closed the game with an 8-0 run -- the last of them coming on a Thomas Bryant free throw with 2.6 seconds left -- to pull off a stunning 63-62 upset that handed Northwestern its fifth defeat in its last seven games.
You can pick your adjective to describe the loss: heartbreaking, gut-wrenching, spine-twisting.
Yet despite all of the pain the loss caused, the truth is that, in terms of the Wildcats making their first-ever trip to the Big Dance, it was not that calamitous. While notching a 10th conference win has long been held up as the requirement for entry into the NCAAs, Northwestern may be in already at 20-9 (9-7).
On Sunday, the day after NU’s loss, CBSSports.com’s Jerry Palm actually moved the Wildcats up from a No. 8 to a No. 7 seed in the South. There is no bubble icon next to their name and they weren’t listed among the “Last four in.” Fox Sports had them as a No. 9, also solidly in the field and off the bubble.
Even the Godfather of Bracketology, Joe Lunardi, whose latest bracket won’t be released until later today, told WGN’s David Kaplan before the game that Northwestern would be in the field even if it lost to the Hoosiers.
Lunardi isn’t alone among experts in thinking that there just aren’t many bubble teams out there that could potentially take Northwestern’s line in the bracket.
ESPN’s Jay Bilas put it more bluntly than Lundardi on Saturday morning.
“I don’t think it’s even a question that Northwestern’s in,” said Bilas. When asked by GameDay host Rece Davis if the Wildcats would remain in the field even if they lose the remainder of their games, Bilas used to the same reasoning. “Who are they going to put in in favor of Northwestern?”
Bilas pointed to wins over Wisconsin, Dayton (a team solidly in the field) and Wake Forest (a team also on the bubble) as NCAA-worth credentials.
“Some of these (bubble) teams are weaker than weak with their resumes,” he said. “We’ve never seen a bubble this soft before.”
Northwestern is currently 50th in RPI, with wins over Dayton (23), Wisconsin (30 and falling after dropping three of four) and Wake Forest (43). The Wildcats are just 1-4 against Top 25 teams, but they have three wins over RPI Top 50 schools and are 6-3 against Nos. 51-100. Their worst losses are to Illinois (56) twice and Indiana (87).
Compare that to some of the major conference programs they are competing with. Palm’s last four in are Rhode Island (42nd in RPI, 19-9 record), Marquette (69th, 17-11), Wake Forest (44th; 16-12, lost to NU head-to-head) and TCU (60th, 16-12). His first four out are Syracuse (75th, 17-13), Georgia (52nd, 16-12), Kansas State (67th, 17-12) and Wichita State (41st, 26-4).
So to get knocked out of the field, all four of the last four in and at least one of the first four out would have to leapfrog Northwestern. That would be a tall order for Marquette, Wake Forest, TCU and Syracuse, in particular, barring a long run in their respective conference tournaments.
It’s not that Northwestern’s record is so strong; it’s that the resumes of a lot of the other teams in the hunt are as watered down as Bud Light on the rocks.
Of course, the Wildcats would be a lock on Selection Sunday with just one more win, whether it comes against Michigan or Purdue during this last week of the regular season, or in the Big Ten Tournament. It would also enable them to set the school record with 21 wins and give them a winning record in conference play for the first time in 49 years. And no one wants to go into the Dance riding what would then be a five-game losing streak.
But let’s face it: the Wildcats will take a ticket to the ball any way they can get it. They’d love to dive in head-first, but they’ll gladly back in if necessary.
CBSSports’ Jon Rothstein said that Northwestern is “officially playing with fire” after the loss to Indiana. The fact remains, however, that the Wildcats may be able to avoid getting burned no matter what they do from this point forward.