Recruiting misses at heart of NU's quarterback problems

Northwestern has a lot of problems on offense right now.

The Wildcats rank last in the Big Ten and 124th in the nation in scoring. They average 17.1 points per game, and just 12.7 in Big Ten play. They look a lot like the offense of the 2019 Wildcat squad that finished 3-9.

But just like during that 2019 season, a great deal of the issues stem from the quarterback position. The play from the most important position on the field has been poor all season and flat-out terrible the last two weeks, when the Wildcats threw seven interceptions and one touchdown in losses to Iowa and Wisconsin.

When NU coaches want to assess blame for their current condition at quarterback, they can, as head coach Pat Fitzgerald likes to say, point thumbs and not fingers. Because the responsibility lies with the coaching staff's recruiting and development, whether under previous offensive coordinator Mick McCall, or the current one, Mike Bajakian.

Northwestern has started three quarterbacks this season. None of them were bona-fide difference makers and you could make the case that all three of them hurt more than helped the team. Two of them, Hunter Johnson and Ryan HIlinski, came to NU by way of a transfer. One, Andrew Marty, was home-grown.

Johnson, the former five-star transfer from Clemson who has all the tools a coach could ask for, flamed out and was yanked after turning the ball over four times in the first half against Duke in Week 3. Marty came in and sparked the offense but got hurt in that same game. Hilinski, a four-star, Top 50 prospect who transferred from South Carolina just last spring, took over and started the next five games, to inconsistent, mostly mediocre results. So when Marty returned from injury, they went back to him.

But Marty, once regarded by many fans as a potential savior for the struggling offense, has shown over the last two games why he had been a backup his entire career. The fifth-year senior was always a high-risk, high-reward proposition, but he’s been reckless with the football in his two starts, throwing one touchdown and six interceptions. After Marty’s third pick on Saturday against the Badgers, Fitzgerald had seen enough and replaced him with Hilinski, who also threw an interception on a tipped pass late in the fourth quarter.

Granted, Northwestern played against two of the best defenses in the nation in its last two outings – Wisconsin is ranked No. 1 – but seven INTs is unacceptable for an offense that struggles to score as much as Northwestern’s.

The bigger question here is, how did Northwestern get here? How has the quarterback position – once a program strength – been so bad that it’s torpedoed two of the last three seasons?

The primary reason is that the Wildcats missed on their top recruiting targets year after year, and then failed to develop the guys they landed, whether they were high school recruits or transfers. The program that produced star quarterbacks like Mike Kafka, Dan Persa, Kain Colter, Trevor Siemian and Clayton Thorson over the years has has struck out repeatedly in recruiting QBs, and it’s caught up to them.

They got lucky in 2020 when they brought in grad transfer Peyton Ramsey, a ready-made leader who led the team to the Big Ten West title. But they haven’t selected and developed a bona-fide starting quarterback since Thorson in 2014. That’s a long time.

In the last nine recruiting classes, Northwestern has signed only one quarterback from its A-list, and he turned out to be a poor scouting evaluation and moved to tight end. They also landed three transfers in that time; so far, just one has worked out.

The Wildcats have had some bad luck, too. They got a commitment from three more of their top-priority quarterback prospects during this period, but they didn’t sign any of them: two decommitted and one was arrested just days before signing day.

Here’s the story on all of the quarterbacks NU brought in – or didn’t bring in – in the nine classes since landing Thorson, the school's all-time NU passing leader, in 2014.

In the 2015 class, Northwestern landed Yates, a project QB from Oak Park (Ill.) River Forest who was more athlete than quarterback. So much so that once he got to Evanston, he was promptly moved to wide receiver. You can usually tell a lot about how high priority a quarterback is by when he commits, and Yates committed just a couple weeks before signing day. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the quarterback won’t turn into a star, or even starter, but the odds are much longer. Top quarterbacks usually commit early. Northwestern took Yates after missing on Jason Pellerin, a Louisianan who looked to be ready to commit before Ole Miss came in with an offer and snatched him. (NU was also briefly in the hunt for Sam Darnold, who visited before he blew up as a recruit and eventually signed with USC.)

The irony here is that the best performing high school quarterback the Wildcats brought in since 2014 was Green, a walkon they didn't even offer. Green didn't receive a single FBS, let alone Power Five offer, but he managed to work his way up to No. 2 on the depth chart in 2018, when he rotated with Thorson through the first few games of the season as Thorson worked his way back from ACL surgery. Then, in 2019, he came on in relief of Johnson in the opener against Stanford and played well. He probably would have been the starter but broke his foot against the Cardinal and was lost for the year. He came back for a sixth year in 2020 to serve as a backup to Ramsey.

The Wildcats landed Deuce Wallace, a top-shelf target, in March of 2015. He was the first member of the class and the Wildcats appeared to be set at the position. But Wallace pulled the rug out from under them a month later when he decommitted to give a verbal to home-state Vanderbilt. Targets Josh Jackson and Anthony Brown, who were high on NU before Wallace’s pledge, committed to Virginia Tech and Boston College, respectively. Northwestern wound up offering and getting a commitment from Smith, a backup plan, in June. A gutsy but limited player, Smith played in eight games during the 2019 season, starting six. He threw three TDs and nine INTs and generally proved why NU was his only Power Five offer.

The Wildcats missed on Jack Coan (Wisconsin) and Kasim Hill (Maryland), among others, in this cycle but felt fortunate in April to land Marty, a prospect who missed his junior year with an injury. Marty had been a Miami (Ohio) commitment and all of his other offers were from the MAC. Marty has been a boom-or-bust QB at Northwestern. He was the golden boy after leading NU to its lone Big Ten win in 2019 and sparking the offense against Duke this year. But the last two games have been a sobering indicator that, despite his running and playmaking ability, he’s not a Big Ten-level passer.

The Wildcats finally got their man in Whittaker, who was the first commit of the 2018 class, more than a year before signing day. The problem was that their man turned out not to be a quarterback. Whittaker ran a Wing-T offense at Rockford (Mich.) and put up paltry numbers, largely because Rockford just didn’t throw the ball very much. He didn’t last long as a quarterback at NU. The program moved him to tight end at the end of 2018, but then back to QB in 2019, when he made a couple game appearances. He opted out in 2020 and is a reserve tight end now.

The big news in this cycle came in January of 2018 when Johnson, the No. 2 quarterback in the 2017 class, transferred after one year at Clemson (shortly after a kid named Trevor Lawrence arrived). Johnson, whose brother Cole had been a walkon for the Wildcats, seemed like a godsend for a program looking to replace Thorson. What’s more, he had three years of eligibility remaining. Johnson sat out 2018 per NCAA rules at the time, and was the opening day starter for 2019. Things didn’t go well as Johnson, perhaps distracted by his mother’s recent cancer diagnosis, was erratic, completing less than 50% of his throws, with one touchdown and four interceptions. He was the backup to Ramsey in 2020 and then got another shot as the starter for 2021. But again, Johnson didn't get the job done and hasn't gotten a snap since getting pulled in the Duke game.

Northwestern again landed a top-priority QB for this class in December of 2017, when three-star Cale Millen committed to the Wildcats. But again, they couldn’t get him to signing day. Millen about-faced, decommitting from Northwestern and pledging Oregon in early May, right after the Ducks came in with an offer.

Still, that misfortune was taken in stride because they had Johnson, the expected star, waiting in the wings.

2020 was an eventful year for quarterback recruiting. First, the Wildcats landed yet another A-lister: Aidan Atkinson out of Colorado. But just a few days before the early signing period, Atkinson was arrested for sexual assault in Colorado and NU was left holding the bag. He is currently serving one year of probation after getting sentenced last spring.

Luckily, the Wildcats were able to land Richardson, who was offered in late December and immediately jumped on the opportunity to be Bajakian’s first QB recruit. Richardson had one other Power Five offer, from Washington State, and the fact that he was available in late December is a red flag, The jury is still out on whether Richardson could be a starter one day. After redshirting last season, he has played in four games and is 2-for-4 for 19 yards passing in 2021.

Northwestern then hit the jackpot with Ramsey, the greatest transfer of the Fitzgerald era, who committed in May. A smart, veteran quarterback who already knew the Big Ten inside and out after four years at Indiana, Ramsey was the steady hand that led the Wildcats to a 7-2 mark, a Big Ten West crown, a Citrus Bowl win over Auburn and a No. 10 ranking. He threw for 1,733 yards, with 12 TDs and eight interceptions. Fitzgerald vowed that 2019 would never happen again, and Ramsey’s play made Fitz a man of his word.

Sullivan was another Plan B signee after Northwestern missed on its top target. The Wildcats finished as runner-up for JJ McCarthy, a five-star local QB who took several visits to Evanston but wound up picking Michigan. Sullivan, an athletic dual-threat QB who led Davison (Mich.) to the 2019 state title, had just one other Power Five offer, from Indiana. The question is whether Sullivan possesses a Big Ten-level arm. Coaches probably already know the answer.

The Cats landed another high-profile transfer QB that January in Hilinski, who had an impressive true freshman season in 2019 at South Carolina, throwing for 2,357 yards, with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, and wowing observers against Alabama and Georgia. But Hilinski fell out of favor with new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo the following year and decided to transfer. Fitzgerald recruited Hilinski for the 2019 class before Millen committed, so NU was his first choice as a landing spot. Hilinski has been up-and-down this season, looking more like a game manager than an impact player so far. He has thrown for 789 yards, with three TDs and two picks.

Northwestern offered Meredith on Oct. 27 and he committed immediately to take the QB spot for this current class. He had one other reported Power Five offer, from Arizona State, but the fact that he was available in late October despite playing for a high-profile power program at Hoover (Ala.) is a sign that he was not heavily recruited. Northwestern went to Meredith after missing on higher-priority prospects, most significantly Conner Harrell, who pledged North Carolina. Bajakian took the unusual step of hosting a quarterback camp in July to try out more 2022 targets but didn’t make any offers. Meredith has some impressive tape and has led Hoover to several big wins in his career. The Wildcats will have to find out if he has the tools to be a Big Ten QB.

So where do the Wildcats go from here? There aren’t any apparent easy solutions.

Now that Northwestern has lost its seventh game of the season and can no longer make a bowl, it would make sense for Fitzgerald to go back to Hilinski. He at least does a better job of taking care of the football than Marty. On the other hand, he is not very mobile and may not be the athletic, dual-threat quarterback that Bajakian favors.

Playing Richardson or even Sullivan would make more sense than going back to Marty or Johnson. The focus is now on the 2022 season, so they’d be better served to give a QB reps for the future than spend them on one who won't be returning.

Still, unless HIlinski, Richardson or Sullivan exhibits shocking growth over these last two weeks, there isn’t an obvious answer at quarterback for next year and beyond.

Many expect the Wildcats to go after another signal caller in the transfer portal after the season to, at the very least, compete for the starting job. But the portal has been a mixed bag for the Wildcats so far: Johnson was a miss, Ramsey a hit, and while it’s too early to judge Hilinski, early returns haven’t instilled much confidence that he's the man.

The bottom line is that Fitzgerald, for the second time in three years, needs to fix the quarterback position. When the Wildcats have a good one, they have proven they can win the Big Ten West, like they did in 2018 with Thorson and 2020 with Ramsey. When they don’t have one, the results are disastrous, like in 2019 and 2021.

If the Wildcats want to get off this every-other-year-rollercoaster, they need to solve the riddle at QB.