Here are three things we learned from the beatdown in Ann Arbor, two questions we have moving forward and one bold prediction about the future as the Wildcats get ready to close out their season at Wrigley Field against Illinois for the Land of Lincoln Trophy.
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED ON SATURDAY
1. Northwestern is all bark and no bite.
After a loss last week to Ohio State, head coach David Braun said the expectation was for Northwestern to win their final two games and get into a bowl game. On the field, Wildcats looked like a team that didn't buy into that vision.
A completely lethargic and to use Braun's own word, "embarrassing", effort led to Northwestern falling 50-6 to a decidedly middle-of-the-road Michigan team that is all but assured to finish 6-6. Prior to Saturday's demolition of the Cats, the most points the Wolverines had scored in a game was 30 against Fresno State way back in August. That was completely blown out of the water.
The game started poorly, with an ill-advised toss from quarterback Jack Lausch being picked off by Michigan's Amir Hall near midfield on the game's opening possession. Michigan turned that advantageous field position into a touchdown and would never relinquish their lead.
Northwestern's next drive was an uncompetitive three-and-out, Hunter Renner uncorked a 26-yard punt that set Michigan up with more great field position that the Wolverines turned into three more points.
A pair of Wildcat field goals threatened to make the game interesting, but Michigan scored on their final six possessions en route to the lopsided final score, carving up the hapless Wildcat defense and shutting down an inoperable NU offense.
For all the talk those in Evanston did about finishing the season strong and attempting to get into a bowl game, the play on the field at the Big House looked like a team that wished the season was already over.
2. Northwestern's special teams is a weakness.
Paul Creighton's first season in Evanston as the special teams coordinator has not been an example of getting off on the right foot. Saturday provided more evidence, as Renner's 26-yard shank was one of a trio of errors for the Wildcats' third phase.
Another came late in the game, when the Wildcats allowed a 63-yard return from Jordan Marshall to set up Michigan's final touchdown.
The most damaging special teams mistake came late in the first half, however. After a pair of Northwestern field goals had trimmed Michigan's lead to 10-6 and had the Wildcats back in the game, Luke Akers came on for the kickoff. Akers misfired and the ball landed well out of bounds. Michigan again was granted strong field position from a Northwestern mistake and started at their own 35-yard line after the penalty.
The Wolverines took advantage of the gift and scored a touchdown to make it 17-6 with under 10 seconds remaining in the half. That was the first of six-straight Michigan scoring drives. Braun talked about the game "snowballing" on Northwestern, Akers' errant kick was what got the ball rolling.
Saturday's rough day followed a snap over Renner's head against Ohio State that gifted Ohio State a touchdown when the game was still tied late in the first half. That adds to allowing a punt return touchdown in the lopsided loss to Iowa just a few games ago.
On the season, Northwestern has had three kicks blocked, which is tied for the ninth-most in all of college football. The Wildcats have also had a punt blocked. As if all that wasn't enough, Northwestern ranks 88th in kick return yardage allowed and 104th in net punting.
Northwestern's list of issues is stunningly long with one game remaining in 2024, but consistently being hurt by the third phase hasn't made life easier for anyone in purple.
3. The Wildcats' season will likely end at Wrigley Field.
Had Northwestern managed to beat Michigan and close out their season with a win over rival Illinois, the Cats would have been bowling for the second season in a row. After getting dismantled at the Big House and seeing the rest of the results around the country, Northwestern in all likelihood won't be sneaking into a bowl game through the back door and the season will end after the Illinois game, win or lose. Given the fight, or lack thereof, Northwestern showed on Saturday, that might be welcome news to the Wildcats.
With 35 non-CFP bowl games across college football, 70 teams are needed to fill out the postseason outside of the 12 playing for a national title. If not enough teams reach the 6-6 mark required for bowl eligibility, 5-7 teams will be chosen based on their Academic Progress Rate. The Wildcats are tied for third in APR behind only Ohio State and Alabama, who are already bowl eligible. So they would be the first 5-7 team chosen if not enough teams reach six wins and the Wildcats beat Illinois.
With 77 teams already reaching bowl eligibility, only five more teams are needed for bowl games headed into the final weekend. There are two rivalry matchups that feature two teams at 5-6: Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan, and Virginia vs. Virginia Tech. So only three more teams need wins.
There are 12 other five-win teams playing for a chance to win and be in, six of them are favored. In short, even if Northwestern pulls off a very improbable upset to beat a ranked Illini squad to make this gamut of odds and chance matter, the deck is heavily stacked against them and it's all but certain the 2024 season will end on Saturday.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. Is 2025 make or break for David Braun?
Braun took the decision to hire him out of Northwestern's hands with a miraculous 5-5 start to his interim tenure after taking over a 1-11 program. The week after the Cats' 24-10 win at Wisconsin, he was hired as the permanent coach, and then added three more wins, including the Las Vegas Bowl, on his way to 8-5. But 11 games into his first full season, his overall record has fallen back to .500 at 12-12, and the Wildcats have lost four of their last five, all by 20+ points.
Saturday's brutal outing in Ann Arbor was the worst beatdown of the bunch. The Wolverines were double-digit favorites in front of their massive crowd, but the Wildcats still rolled over in the second half with a postseason opportunity in the balance.
It's been part of a concerning trend for the Wildcats: after making significant strides down the stretch in 2023, they have gotten worse as the season has gone on in 2024. The once dominant Wildcat defense that smothered opponents early in the season has now allowed at least 30 points in three of the last four games. The only team the Wildcats kept under 30 was a Purdue squad that, barring a stunner next weekend, will finish the season 1-11 without a win over an FBS program.
Further, Braun's biggest hire of the offseason, offensive coordinator Zach Lujan, has struggled mightily through 11 games. Northwestern's offense is ranked 129th in college football, scoring only 16.9 points per game. The Cats are tied for 130th in the country in first downs with only 164.
Most alarmingly, Lujan's group gains only 270.1 yards per game, which ranks 132nd in the country, better than only 0-11 Kent State. Northwestern has failed to score a touchdown in half of their Big Ten games. It's safe to say the first season of the Braun-Lujan tandem that excited the fanbase last summer has been a significant swing-and-miss.
Braun deserves some grace after a strong first year on the job under very difficult circumstances, but 2024 has been evocative of the struggles of 2019, 2021 and 2022 when the team won just one conference game per season. The Wildcats have won two, over the aforementioned hapless Boilermakers and on the road at Maryland, but have been otherwise uncompetitive in most Big Ten games.
A coaching change two years after he won Big Ten Coach of the Year award would be a quick hook, but with a new athletic director and a new, $850 million stadium opening its doors in 2026, another disappointing season in 2025 could create a very hot seat for Braun.
2. Why does Ryan Hilinski keep getting mop up duty?
True freshman Ryan Boe has traveled to every Northwestern road game as the fourth quarterback, rather than redshirt freshman Aidan Gray. Whispers out of Evanston indicate that the Wildcat coaching staff is incredibly high on Boe and think he has a bright future in purple. Given that, it makes little sense why Ryan Hilinski has continually been the guy the Wildcat coaches insert when a game is out of hand and the starters are pulled.
Hilinski, by all accounts, has been a model teammate during his four years in Evanston, but the fact remains that he's out of eligibility when the 2024 season comes to an end. Even if Hilinski was lighting it up in garbage time, it would do nothing to benefit NU other than maybe look the final score look a little less harsh. Instead, he's struggled whenever he's gotten on the field
If the coaches are as high on Boe as they are said to be, it doesn't make sense to prevent him from getting game experience, especially after the 10th game, when he would still preserve his redshirt. Allowing a young player who could be the quarterback of the future to get his feet wet in low-pressure situations would be an advantageous, forward-thinking decision from the Wildcat coaching staff. Instead, Northwestern has given those snaps to a player who currently has four quarters remaining in his college career.
ONE BOLD PREDICTION
Northwestern will retain Zach Lujan.
It will be a move that will be panned by many, but Braun will choose to retain Lujan after the 2024 season. Despite the Cats' well-documented struggles on offense, Braun will choose to focus his offseason on finding on-field replacements via the transfer portal, with emphasis on offensive line, wide receiver and, hopefully, quarterback. The Wildcat offensive line has really gone downhill since injuries decimated the group.
Center and guard will be positions NU emphasizes on the line. Jackson Carsello's persistent problems getting the ball back to his quarterback must be addressed. Jack Bailey was solid as a stater early in the season and could apply for a medical redshirt after his season was cut short after four weeks, but that's not a certainty. Nick Herzog's injury really hampered the line, and backup transfer Cooper Lovelace was eventually replaced by true freshman Ezomo Oratokhai.
The Cats' coaching staff also figures to focus heavily on wide receiver. The offense will be left without a returning player who has over 100 receiving yards on the season after Bryce Kirtz and AJ Henning depart. Whether or not they go after a quarterback remains to be seen, given the coaches support of Lausch and his two years of eligibility he has remaining.
With a bevy of needs in the portal, Braun will focus on searching for upgrades on the field to plug into Lujan's system rather than trying to reset the operation entirely.