Advertisement
Published Oct 21, 2024
The 3-2-1 going into Iowa Week
Michael Fitzpatrick  •  WildcatReport
WildcatReport

Here are three things we learned from the Wisconsin game, two questions we have moving forward and one bold prediction about the future as the Wildcats get ready to head to Kinnick Stadium and face the Hawkeyes.



THREE THINGS WE LEARNED ON SATURDAY

1. Coaching cost the Cats.

Head coach David Braun narrowly dodged a game management error at Maryland when Northwestern threw incomplete in the shadow of their end zone late in the second quarter, but made essentially the same mistake against Wisconsin.

On Saturday, after a rough first half on offense, Northwestern had a chance to head into halftime against the Badgers down just 7-0. The Wildcats had the ball, first-and-10, at their own 13-yard line with 43 seconds left in the half. Wisconsin had only one timeout remaining, so Northwestern could have easily taken the game into halftime by taking a knee.

A false start penalty made the decision even easier, at least on paper. Instead, Braun and the staff called a pass that included a double-move. The reason for such a risky shot call, according to Braun, was that he thought the offense that hadn't scored all half would be able to drive down the field from their own 8-yard line and into field goal range. Mind you, a 52-yard field goal by Luke Akers had been well short in the first quarter, so this drive would have had to delve deep into Badger territory.

On the aforementioned double move, Jack Lausch dropped back near his end zone, was hit from behind by John Pius and lost the football. Elijah Hills jumped on the loose ball for the Badgers at the NU 3-yard line. Cade Yacamelli scored on the next play, and suddenly it was 14-0 going into the half. Northwestern's bid for an upset went from bruised to broken, directly because of the high-risk call.

Asking Lausch to wait for a double move to come open when the banged-up Wildcat offensive line had struggled to handle Wisconsin's defensive front all half was a frustrating and perplexing decision from offensive coordinator Zach Lujan. At the end of the day, though, it's on the head coach to override or instruct his coordinator and quarterback to run the ball, or even kneel out the half entirely.

Northwestern's offense had not scored yet, and Lausch had completed just four of his 14 pass attempts in the half. There was next to no realistic path for Braun to try and get points there, and the overzealous call put the game out of reach.

Exacerbating the frustration is that Northwestern made the exact same mistake last week and Braun vowed it wouldn't happen again with his inexperienced quarterback and young coordinator. Those proved to be empty words.

Braun claimed that the situation against Maryland was different than the one Northwestern faced on Saturday, but it's unclear where the substantive difference lies. Against Maryland, Northwestern was on their own 5-yard line with 47 seconds left on second-and-11. On Saturday, Northwestern was on their own 8, facing a first-and-15 with only 43 seconds left. Both times, their opponent had just one timeout remaining. The situations were nearly identical.

One possible explanation for Braun's decision was a desire to prove to his team that he could be aggressive after balking at two opportunities earlier in the half -- decisions which would be facing more thorough criticism if not for the disaster at the end of the half. After a big punt return from Bryce Kirtz, Northwestern was set up with first down from the Badger 42. Three plays later, NU faced fourth-and-2 from the Wisconsin 34-yard line. Even with his kicker sidelined, Braun opted to send Akers, who doubles as the punter, out to try a 51-yard field goal rather than trust the offense to get two yards. He had made all three field goals he attempted at Maryland, but with a long of 44.

Akers' attempt came up short, and the Wildcats got nothing out of great field position. Akers did an outstanding job filling in for the injured Jack Olsen a week ago, but trusting a punter to kick a bomb of a field goal rather than being aggressive proved to be a miscalculation. On Northwestern's next drive, the Wildcats again found themselves facing a fourth-and-2, this time from the Wisconsin 10-yard line. Again, rather than attempting to get two yards, Braun sent Akers back out there. A low kick from the punter was blocked and the Cats got nothing for a second time.

The latter decision wasn't as ill-advised; the short field goal was easily makable and would have cut the Badger lead to four late in the first half. Still, in the first half, Braun opted to be take the foot off the gas in two spots where he could have, or should have, been more aggressive, and was aggressive in a spot he absolutely should have called off the dogs.

Braun has tended towards the side of caution early in his career, and he has often opted to kick rather than go for it on fourth down with his shaky offense. Braun referenced the team's success rate on fourth down in his postgame press conference in support of his process.

"I have full faith in our offensive line, but our track record on fourth-and-short here, if you look at the numbers, it's not the best," he said. "I look forward to this group getting healthy...so it can continue to mature and grow and put us in a situation with fourth-and-2 where we [expect] a conversion. We're not there yet, but I look forward to that. We knew that across the 50, fourth-and-1 or -short would be a go for us."

The concerns about the line's push or protection make it even more concerning to count on them to give Lausch enough time in the pocket to execute on first-and-15 when the defense could be gunning for a game-changing sack.

Maybe it's a matter of a young coaching finding when to be aggressive and when to be conservative, but the growing pains have started to become stark. It's far too early to press the panic button on the reigning Big Ten Coach of the Year, and this game concluded the best 20-game start to a coaching tenure at Northwestern since the 1940s.

But adding Saturday's first half to the ill-advised field goal attempt from the Washington 1-yard line when trailing by 15, a quarterback run for negative yards against Duke in double overtime and the dodged bullet against Maryland, and legitimate questions are starting to pop up about Braun's ability to manage a game.


2. It looked like September for Northwestern's offense.

Coming off their two best performances of the year, Lausch and the offense turned back into a pumpkin on Saturday. October had borne good omens, and a 27 points-per-game average after just 16.5 in August and September. But that momentum vanished in a puff of smoke with a three-point dud vs. Wisconsin.

The inaccuracy that plagued Lausch early against Eastern Illinois and Washington returned. The redshirt sophomore only competed nine of 24 pass attempts for 82 yards. The Wildcat offensive line, missing all three starters on the interior to injury, struggled to keep the Badger defensive line out of the backfield. The only real success the Cats found on offense was when Lausch pulled the ball down and scrambled. His 55 yards on the ground were about the only positive to takeaway from Saturday's beatdown, making it all the more confusing why designed QB runs are still so consistently absent from Lujan's game plans.

Northwestern's failure on offense can really be boiled down to one statistic: third-down conversions. NU converted only two of 14 third downs against the Badgers. If that's not bad enough, on an expanded sample size of the last four games, Northwestern is 12-of-52 on third down. That's a little bit above 23%. A number like that isn't going to win many ball games. That 23.1% mark would be the third-worst in all of college football, better than only Kent State and Kennesaw State. The Golden Flashes and Owls are a combined 0-13 in 2024.

The Wildcats' full-season third-down conversion rate of 25.3% isn't much better. That number ranks 130th out of 134 teams in the FBS and last in the Big Ten. These struggles can be traced to a series of causes. Poor execution on first and second down, penalties, inaccuracy and questionable play-calling have all taken turns to doom the Wildcats on third down. To be effective on third downs, an offense has to be precise and efficient. NU's offense has far too often been disconnected and lacking a clear concept of what they want to do more than halfway through 2024.

Lausch claimed Northwestern's offense was "close" after the game on Saturday, and while that belief is admirable, the Wildcat offense is nowhere close to where it needs to be. Breakout performances against Indiana and Maryland were nice and showed what the unit is capable of, but the bottom line is that the Northwestern offense has managed just a field goal twice in the last four games. Asking the defense to pitch a shutout every week isn't going to work, plain and simple. There is no let-up from the schedule, either, as they'll have to try and get on track next week at a raucous Kinnick Stadium against Iowa.

Lujan's last visit to face the Hawkeyes, a 7-3 loss back when he was offensive coordinator at South Dakota State in 2022, does not bode well.


3. Northwestern lost more than just the game.

In addition to dropping their fourth game of the season, Northwestern lost two of their best players to injury. Linebacker Xander Mueller left with a lower-body injury and did not return, while wide receiver AJ Henning left with an upper-body injury in the first half and did not return either.

Mueller was taken out by a cut block while blitzing and was seen later on the sideline wearing a knee brace. Henning leapt for an errant throw from Lausch and was slammed on his right side on the way down. Additionally, Kirtz appeared to be limping around at times throughout the contest but was able to remain in the game.

Northwestern needs both Henning and Mueller. Henning leads Northwestern with 34 receptions and has hauled in three of the Cats' four receiving touchdowns in 2024. He ranks second on the team with 357 receiving yards. Mueller, a captain, and arguably Northwestern's best player overall, ranks second on the team with 43 tackles. He's also added one sack, four pass breakups and a fumble recovery. To lose either of them, let alone both, would require serious adjustments from a team that's already working on the margins.

An extended absence for Henning would mean more opportunities for Frank Covey IV and Calvin Johnson II, who have combined for just 10 catches for 71 yards on the season. Filling in for Mueller would be Greyson Metz, who did an outstanding job in relief on Saturday. The Glen Ellyn, Ill. native was second on the team with eight tackles, including a strip-sack of Wisconsin quarterback Braedyn Locke.

TWO QUESTIONS

1. What's with all the penalties?

It may be hard to believe, but there was a time not too long ago when Northwestern was known as one of the most disciplined teams in college football. The Cats routinely ranked among the best teams in the FBS in terms of fewest penalties per game.

In 2024, there's been a lot of laundry on the field. The Cats get flagged about five times per game for 42.7 yards. Neither mark is egregious in the grand scheme of college football, with NU ranking 26th and 23rd in each category, respectively.

What's really killed Northwestern has been when the penalties come. Pre-snap penalties have killed drive after drive. Thomas Gordon has been one of the main culprits, getting called for an inordinate number of penalties for a tight end.

Eliminating pre-snap mental mistakes like false starts and not getting set before the snap would go a long way to helping the Wildcat offense get something going. It's something Braun has mentioned repeatedly but has been unable to find a fix for.

The Wildcats' issue with penalty markers will be in sharp contrast on Saturday, as Iowa only gets flagged an average of just two times per game for 22.5 yards, both best in the country.


2. What is the Wildcats' offensive identity?

When Lujan arrived in Evanston last winter, he said that he didn't really have an offensive system. He tailors his scheme to his talent, he said. It sounded like a great idea.

But after seven games, the Wildcats' offense doesn't really have an identity, something they can hang their hat on or go to when they need to make a play. After Saturday's three-point output, Northwestern's offense ranks 18th in yards and 17th in points in the Big Ten. They rank 16th in rushing, 16th in passing and dead-last in third-down conversions.

Braun consistently talks about establishing the running game, but it's struggled all season. The Wildcats have rushed for more than 150 yards just once, and it came against Eastern Illinois from the FCS. They had three straight games of less than 100 yards before snapping the streak with 127 against Wisconsin. The injury to Cam Porter has certainly played a role, and Lausch's ad lib scrambles when he's under pressure were NU"s best offense against the Badgers, but oftentimes the Wildcats are out of luck between the tackles.

The passing game generated just 82 yards against Wisconsin and has yet to reach 250 in any game. Lausch is still inconsistent and erratic as a passer, missing multiple throws per game and often holding the ball too long. We haven't seen much evidence of Lujan tailoring the offense to his quarterback and it hasn't felt like the playbook has opened up or changed since Lausch took over for Mike Wright. Lausch's strength is as a runner, but the Wildcats usually have him throwing from the pocket and don't roll him out very often. They also run very few read option or RPOs, limiting Lausch's legs to an escape route when the pocket collapses.

And don't get us started on the short-yardage offense.

Northwestern's bowl hopes look much dimmer after Saturday's setback. Just one of their five remaining games comes against a Big Ten opponent with a losing overall record: 1-6 Purdue. While postseason play might be out of reach, Northwestern can still use the remaining games on the schedule to find some semblance of an offense.

ONE BOLD PREDICTION

Brendan Sullivan will score a touchdown against his old team on Saturday.

After starting eight games for the Wildcats over the 2022 and 2023 seasons, quarterback Brendan Sullivan entered the transfer portal at the conclusion of spring practice in 2024. He ended up in Iowa City, where he has been backing up fellow intra-conference transfer Cade McNamara.

Sullivan hasn't seen a ton of action for the Hawkeyes, but Iowa has implemented a goal-line package using Sullivan with great success.

So far, the NU graduate has completed his only two pass attempts for 14 yards and a touchdown. He's also carried the ball nine times for 36 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including a two-yard scamper for a score last week against Michigan State.

With his touchdown against Michigan State, the Hawkeyes are now seven-for-seven in scoring touchdowns when using their Sullivan goal-line look.

Sullivan will exact a measure of revenge against his old team on Saturday and find the end zone, giving Northwestern and its fans an extra kick in the gut to go with the points.

Advertisement
Advertisement