Published Nov 18, 2024
The 3-2-1 going into Michigan week
Michael Fitzpatrick  •  WildcatReport
WildcatReport

Here are three things we learned from the Ohio State game, two questions we have moving forward and one bold prediction about the future as the Wildcats head to Ann Arbor to face the defending national champions at the Big House.


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THREE THINGS WE LEARNED ON SATURDAY

1. Mistakes continue to hamper Northwestern.

Self-inflicted wounds have plagued Northwestern in 2024, and that continued on Saturday in a game against one of the best teams in college football, against whom Northwestern could ill afford to give away freebies.

Northwestern's much-maligned offense came out of the gate looking like an entirely new unit and marched 59 yards down the field to arrive at third-and-7 from the Ohio State 18-yard line. Then, quarterback Jack Lausch was hit from behind on a scramble well short of the sticks and lost the ball. The loose ball was recovered by Davison Igbinosun and the promising drive was suddenly snuffed out.

Northwestern got another shot and took an early 7-0 lead on their next drive. They continued to go toe-to-toe with the second-ranked team in America deep into the first half. With the score tied at 7, the Wildcats faced a third-and-4 from their own 31 with under five minutes remaining in the half. The Cats were hoping to build on the early momentum, but center Jackson Carsello's third-down snap hit his backside and never made it back to Lausch. Left tackle Caleb Tiernan jumped on the loose ball and NU sent out the punt team. A second snap snafu in as many plays followed as long snapper Will Halkyard's offering sailed over the head of punter Hunter Renner. Renner scooped up the loose ball near his own goal line and his last-ditch attempt to get a punt off was blocked out of bounds.

Ohio State started at the Northwestern 1-yard line and Quinshon Judkins gave the Buckeyes a lead they would not relinquish on their way to a 31-7 win.

Winning on Saturday was always a long shot for Northwestern. Ohio State boasts a supremely talented roster and have made clear since the summer that they are singularly focused on ending this season with a national championship. The Wildcats were nearly four-touchdown underdogs for a reason. Even with Ohio State's advantages on paper, the Cats had more than hung in there for the first 25 minutes of the game. The moment wasn't too big for head coach David Braun's squad and the Cats weren't the slightest bit intimidated by Ohio State.

All the work Northwestern had put in was completely undone by a pair of snap catastrophes. Ohio State did nothing to earn the opportunity Northwestern gifted them late in the first half. If anything, the Cats had been the aggressor to that point. Still, Northwestern couldn't get out of its own way. The 10th game of the season is far too late to continue to have trouble snapping the football, and it hamstrung their upset chances before they could even see the second half.

Self-inflicted wounds have been a constant for Northwestern in 2024, going back to fumbled snaps in the season opener against Miami (Ohio). Penalties have been a consistent problem as well, though the Wildcats managed to keep that under control on Saturday, to their credit. It's hard enough to beat the other team, but far too often NU has also had to overcome themselves, too. In games like this, or even against conference foes like Washington, Wisconsin or Iowa, Braun has made it clear that the margins are "ultra-thin".

Northwestern must play cleaner over the final two games of 2024 if they want to realize his goal for the program to return to the heart of Big Ten competition.


2. Northwestern's offense put the bye week to good use.

The 7 points Northwestern's offense finished with on Saturday doesn't tell the full story of how offensive coordinator Zach Lujan's offense played on Saturday. The Cats' first two drives were as good as the unit has looked all season. The opening march covered 59 yards in 11 plays before Lausch's fumble. The next time the Wildcats got the ball they started at their own 8-yard line. Anyone who remembers NU's last few games before the bye week remembers that starting backed up near their own goal line was a harbinger of something disastrous.

Early Saturday, though, Lujan's group was entirely unfazed by the poor field position. Lausch led the offense 92 yards in 13 plays before punctuating the drive with an 8-yard dash to the end zone on a quarterback draw to give NU the lead.

The Wildcats were unable to score again, but a pair of second-half drives did make their way deep into Ohio State territory before being snuffed out on fourth-down attempts. Despite the low number on the scoreboard, it was hard to not feel at least a little encouraged with how Lujan's group looked on Saturday. By nearly every statistical metric, the Buckeyes boasted the best defense in college football. The same Wildcat offense that couldn't score a touchdown over two consecutive games was surprisingly effective.

Lausch became just the second quarterback to throw for over 200 yards against Ohio State, joining likely Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel of top-ranked Oregon. Taking out the yardage lost by four sacks, Lausch carried the ball 10 times for 44 yards and the aforementioned touchdown. All told, it was one of his best games of the season. There's still room to grow as some ball security issues continued to pop up, but overall, Lausch largely looked in command against the best defense he's faced in his eight career starts.

The offense was buoyed tremendously by the return of Bryce Kirtz, the veteran receiver who missed the previous two games with injury. The team captain snared seven passes from Lausch for 92 yards in his return to action. Kirtz credited winning his one-on-one matchups with sparking his big day, noting that wide receivers coach Armon Binns told him all week he could have success on dig routes against the Buckeyes' defensive backs.

The Cats best performance of the season on offense came against Indiana after Northwestern's first bye week of 2024. The trend of putting the week off to good use continued on Saturday as Northwestern's performance was a far cry from the squad that managed just three offensive points against Wisconsin and Iowa combined less than a month ago.


3. Wrigley remains the Un-Friendly Confines to the Cats.

Playing football at the home of the Chicago Cubs has become more common in recent years for Northwestern, but the results have not been what the Cats have hoped for. The inaugural game at the Friendly Confines in 2010 was a drubbing at the hands of Illinois. NU returned to Wrigley Field in 2019, when they were handled by Purdue. Last season, the Cats lost an ugly 10-7 slugfest to Iowa that featured a disintegrating playing surface. Saturday's defeat brings Northwestern's record to 0-4 at the federal landmark.

The Wildcats have one more chance to get in the win column at Wrigley this season when Illinois makes the trip up north for a Nov. 30 meeting. Or maybe, as seems to be tradition at Clark and Addison, the Cats will have to wait another 94 years to finally break through.

TWO QUESTIONS

1. Can Northwestern go bowling?

With their record sitting at 4-6, it is officially now or never for Northwestern's bowl hopes in 2024. The Cats have to win their final two games, at Michigan and a date with in-state rival Illinois, in order to ensure a bowl game in consecutive years for the first time since 2017 and 2018. There is still an opportunity for the Wildcats to make a bowl with five wins and the Academic Progress Rate tiebreaker, but that's never a guarantee.

Losing a double-overtime game against Duke in September looms large, but the head coach has full confidence in his team.

"Not going to accept the result, but I am incredibly excited to get back to work with this group tomorrow morning and keep fighting," Braun said. "The expectation is we find a way to get ourselves and this team to a bowl game."

The road to a bowl game starts on Saturday in Ann Arbor when the Cats pay a visit to the defending national champions. The Wolverines lost a bevy of talent and their head coach to the NFL after their 15-0 campaign in 2023, and they have not been able to recreate their dominance of the last three seasons. Michigan finds themselves at 5-5 and needs a win of their own in one of their final two games to go bowling. With the No. 2 Buckeyes looming in the latter game, you can bet the Wolverines will be focused on squaring away their postseason against the Wildcats.

The Wolverines are led by first-year head coach Sherrone Moore, the former offensive line coach and offensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh. A trio of quarterbacks have started games for the Wolverines in 2024, but opening-day starter Davis Warren has reclaimed his job and will likely start against the Cats. The offense leans heavily on a ground game that's led by bruising, 233-pound runner Kalel Mullings. Tight end Colston Loveland will be another player the Wildcats focus on as he has been the only consistent weapon in the Michigan passing game.

As a whole, the Michigan offense has struggled mightily in 2024. The offense ranks 129th in the country in yards per game (just one spot and six yards per game ahead of Northwestern), and 118th in points per game.

The Wolverine defense, though, has remained characteristically strong, ranking 38th in the country in total defense.

On paper, Northwestern and Michigan are evenly matched teams. Both squads play good defense but really struggle to get much of anything going on offense. The teams' scoring offense and scoring defense are both within three points of each other. The biggest difference seemingly is the Michigan rushing offense, which averages 50 more yards per contest.

Everything points to a tight, low-scoring affair at the Big House on Saturday, a place Northwestern has not won since 2008. NU needs to close the season on a two-game winning streak to clinch a bowl game, and it all starts with knocking off the champs on their home turf.


2. Will Northwestern ever truly be Chicago's Big Ten team?

The overhead shots of Wrigley Field shown on Big Ten Network Saturday were a less than ideal look for Northwestern. Ohio State fans packed the seats and made what was supposed to be an NU home game look like it was taking place in Columbus. The sea of red, just a season after Iowa did the same in black and gold, was a painful reminder about how far away Northwestern football is from being able to create a home-field advantage at Wrigley.

Braun shrugged off the Buckeye invasion when asked about it postgame and declined to criticize the Wildcat fanbase.

"I look forward to answering that when we're putting 8-10 win seasons together," Braun said. "When we do that, we better be the dominant fanbase. We've seen it, it's happened at NU... We have to work to put a product on the field where people have no choice but to show up."

Braun's "if you build it, they will come" approach is correct. All he has to do is look next door from the old Ryan Field. For years, Welsh-Ryan Arena was as sleepy as an arena could get, except when invaded by opposing fans. Now, after the Wildcat basketball program has entered the most successful stretch in its history, the arena is packed with Wildcat fans nearly every night and has become a difficult place for opponents to play.

The new Ryan Field will certainly help generate more excitement around the program when it opens in 2026, but the onus for firing up the fanbase ultimately falls on the coaches and players. If Braun can get the football program to a point where it is consistently playing in, and winning, big games, it's been shown that Evanston can become a place opponents dread coming to.

ONE BOLD PREDICTION

Northwestern and Michigan will go under the over/under.

The over/under for Saturday's game at Michigan stadium opened at 38.5 -- with Northwestern as a 12.5-point underdog. On the season, the Wildcats and Wolverines combine to average 38.4 points per game, so it's not a bad line from Vegas. In a battle between two teams who desperately need a win, both coaches will likely lean on the strength of their respective squads: their defenses.

On paper, the game has the makings of a low-scoring affair where field position looms large. The Wildcats and Wolverines have a lot in common, with anemic offenses averaging less than 21 points per game, strong defenses allowing about 23 points per game and newish head coaches who have been learning on the job.

With both teams figuring to play it conservatively and limit the risks taken by their struggling offenses, Northwestern and Michigan will slog their way to a total that is under the line of 38.5 in classic, old-school Big Ten game.