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Published Oct 28, 2024
The 3-2-1 going into Purdue Week
Michael Fitzpatrick  •  WildcatReport
WildcatReport

Here are three things we learned from the Iowa game, two questions we have moving forward and one bold prediction about the future as the Wildcats get ready for the second straight road game when they head to West Lafayette.


THREE THINGS WE LEARNED ON SATURDAY

1. Northwestern is an embarrassment right now.

And that take is straight from head coach David Braun, who called Saturday's thrashing in Iowa City "an embarrassing performance". For the second week in a row Northwestern was completely outclassed and thoroughly dominated for anyone with access to Big Ten Network to see. Braun went on to say he's "fully confident" the team will bounce back, but it will be extremely challenging to salvage a bowl opportunity with four games left, three projecting to be as heavy underdogs.

Coaching decisions were riddled with the same mistakes that have plagued Northwestern for weeks. The Cats' offense didn't find the end zone for the second week in a row and managed just 163 yards while turning the ball over twice. Northwestern's defense played a strong first half but the wheels came off as the game went on. Iowa scored touchdowns on each of their first three drives in the second half, adding on to a touchdown on the Hawkeyes' final drive of the opening half. Not to be outdone, NU's special teams allowed a punt return touchdown and a 50-yard field goal came up short on one of the offense's positive drives.

The offense cannot do anything positive and has been inoperable in three different Big Ten games. Getting to fourth down and punting without a catastrophe in the first three downs is a resounding success these days for offensive coordinator Zach Lujan's unit, one that often finds itself in the shadow of its own end zone with no way out. The defense does its fair share, but without any help from the rest of the operation, it can't win games by itself. To top it off, coaching decisions continue to defy logic and hurt a team that is already severely limited by its personnel at certain key positions. Very little is working and the lopsided scores of the last two games bear that out.

Some serious soul searching is needed in Evanston when the 2024 season comes to an end because, as Braun so sharply stated, Northwestern football is embarrassing right now.


2. The same mistakes continue to hurt Cats.

One of the tell-tale signs of a good football team is constant improvement as the season goes on, as we saw last season. Strong teams and programs take the information they learn each week, apply that knowledge, and put it to use to improve each week. This Northwestern group hasn't been able to do that. The Wildcats continue to make the same mistakes every game, leading to the same negative results.

Last week against Wisconsin, Northwestern faced a fourth-and-2 from the Wisconsin 34-yard line. Braun opted to send punter Luke Akers, who's filling in for injured kicker Jack Olsen, out to try a 51-yard field goal. The kick came up short and Northwestern got nothing. Saturday in Iowa City, on the Wildcats' opening drive, Braun found himself in an eerily similar spot. Northwestern had fourth-and-2 from the Iowa 32-yard line. Despite the failure of the previous week, Braun again sent Akers out there to try a 50-yarder. Akers' try again came up short and Northwestern's best drive of the game got zero points.

Braun's stated logic for not going for it in situations like he's faced the last two weeks is that Northwestern has struggled tremendously in short-yardage situations this season, and that he has confidence in Akers to hit at that range based on what he's done in practice. The offense's general struggle to do much of anything certainly doesn't engender much trust in their ability to get two yards on fourth down. Chances are they would not have been able to convert both fourth downs. Despite that, there's still a higher chance of the offense stumbling into picking up a couple yards than Akers hitting a kick that's clearly out of his range. He's a punter-turned-kicker whose career long in a college game is 44 yards.

Both of Akers' kicks the last two weeks have not been close. Braun repeatedly sending him out there to kick a field goal that he cannot make is both poor coaching and not fair to the player. Attempting a field goal that is going to come up short is essentially taking a knee on fourth down. It just doesn't make sense. Braun's lack of trust in the offense is completely understandable, but giving away scoring opportunities in consecutive weeks to attempt field goals outside of your replacement kicker's range is not an example of a program that is improving as the season goes on.

Additionally for the second week in a row, quarterback Jack Lausch was sacked for a safety. Complaints have been lodged against Lujan for asking his quarterback to throw out of his own end zone, but the player has to hold up his end of the bargain, too. Lausch got good enough protection from his beat-up offensive line on that play, but the clock in his head that should have told him to get out of the end zone never went off. He stood in his own end zone for entirely too long and was eventually brought down by Max Llewellyn for a safety. Lausch still hasn't developed the awareness to know that he either has to get rid of the ball or pull it down and get what he can with a scramble much quicker than usual, especially when he's dropping back into his own end zone. For the second week in a row, he held the ball too long and cost Northwestern two points.

The fact that the same issues hitting Northwestern multiple weeks in a row is becoming a recurring theme is very telling. The same processes that have gotten Northwestern to 3-5 and these last two losses do not appear to be being evaluated or changed. Northwestern keeps doing the same things over and over and the negative results always follow getting the Wildcats to the low point they find themselves at with four games left.


3. Northwestern is an undisciplined football team.

Among the issues that continually hurt Northwestern is the litany of flags thrown every week against the Cats. On Saturday, Northwestern was called for five penalties for 45 yards. Forty-five yards isn't an exorbitant amount, but the penalties came at inopportune times and really hurt the Wildcats.

On Iowa's opening drive, the Hawkeyes faced a third-and-10. Anto Saka jumped offsides and gave Iowa five free yards. The Hawkeyes took advantage of the much more friendly down and distance, hitting a Northwestern defense that suddenly had to worry about the run for a 42-yard bomb from Cade McNamara to Seth Anderson. Iowa used the big play to set up a field goal and take an early lead.

On Iowa's next drive, McNamara was hit as he threw by Saka and the floating throw was intercepted by Josh Fussell, whose return was poised to set Northwestern up near midfield. Saka, however, took his pressure a step too far and drove McNamara into the ground, landing with his full weight on top of the Iowa quarterback. He was called for roughing the passer which gave Iowa 15 yards and new life. The defense held up after the penalty and forced Iowa to punt, but Rhys Dakin's punt was downed at the Northwestern 6-yard line. Saka's second penalty in as many drives cost Northwestern upwards of 40 yards of field position.

The ill-advised decisions wouldn't stop there. After his 85-yard pick-six gave Northwestern the lead, veteran cornerback Theran Johnson made a throat-slash gesture as a part of his celebration. Johnson was flagged 15 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct, which was enforced on the ensuing kickoff. After the Wildcats were forced to kickoff from their own 20, Iowa started with the ball at their own 45-yard line. The Hawkeyes went three and out, but Dakin's ensuing punt was again downed at the NU 6-yard line. Lausch was sacked for a safety on the next play. On the free kick after the safety, Iowa again got advantageous field position, starting at their own 37. Northwestern's next two drives started at their own 6 and 5, respectively. Finally, Iowa's last drive of the half started at their own 48-yard line and was punctuated by a Kaleb Johnson touchdown run to give Iowa the lead going into the break.

Johnson's celebration penalty created a cycle where Northwestern started three straight drives inside their own 6-yard line. In the same timeframe, none of Iowa's four drives started with worse field position than their own 37. In fact, neither team snapped the ball inside the Iowa 30 in the first half.

The Hawkeyes took advantage of the extended field-position advantage to the tune of nine points and a lead that was never relinquished.

It was more of the same for Northwestern. In addition to the struggles of the offense, questionable coaching decisions, mental mistakes from numerous players, and ill-timed and easily avoidable penalties made the Cats' life significantly harder and directly cost the team points.

TWO QUESTIONS

1. Does Zach Lujan deserve a second year?

What was feared after the heavily-criticized quarterback sweep catastrophe on third-and-goal against Duke has become more evident every week: Lujan can't coach at this level. Braun poaching a coordinator who hasn't turned 30 yet from the FCS ranks was always a gamble, and thus far it has gone about as poorly as possible.

Through seven games against FBS competition, Lujan's offense is averaging just 13.3 points per game. The Cats can't even manage two touchdowns per game against FBS teams. The Wildcat offense hasn't scored a touchdown outside of garbage time since Cam Porter's run with 12:08 remaining in the second quarter against Maryland. That's over 162 minutes of game time without a meaningful touchdown.

The Cats rank dead last in the Big Ten in yards per game at 245.9; and in Big Ten games only the total is just 220.6. The Wildcats average of 18.4 points per game, even when counting the game against FCS foe Eastern Illinois, ranks 123rd out of 133 teams in the FBS. NU's third-down conversion percentage of 24.18% is the worst in the FBS. Pick an offensive statistic and it's a sure bet that Northwestern will be at or near the bottom.

The sheer incompetence of Lujan's offense has never been more fully on display than on Saturday. Northwestern got a pick-six from Johnson and a punt return touchdown from true freshman walkon Drew Wagner and the game still wasn't close. Despite two non-offensive touchdowns, Iowa never had to sweat as the offense failed to score a point. Over the last three games, Northwestern's offense has scored just three touchdowns (all against Maryland); in that same span, the Wildcat defense and special teams have also scored three touchdowns. It's hard to capture just how bad Lujan's offense has been, and it's hard to imagine him reprising his role as offensive coordinator next year.

Granted, he hasn't had much help. Northwestern's quarterback play has been poor in 2024. The Wildcats have only thrown four touchdowns this season, two of which came against Eastern Illinois. With Lausch's two interceptions against Iowa, his and Mike Wright's five combined interceptions now outnumber the Cats' scoring tosses. With Saturday's 10-for-19, 62-yard dud, Lausch has now thrown for under 100 yards in three of his six starts. Northwestern has proven once again how hard it is to win when you can't throw the ball with any semblance of reliability.

Despite that, Lujan should not get a pass for how bad his offense has been. There is no indication of any rhyme or reason to Lujan's play calls. When he was hired, Lujan talked about adapting his offense to his players to fit their strengths. That has turned out to be nothing more than empty coach-speak. Two examples have been very prominent in 2024. Last season, running back Joseph Himon II was a weapon for the Wildcats in the screen game, averaging over 12 yards per reception. Lujan has very rarely, if ever, dialed up a screen to Himon in 2024. Second, the quarterback run is completely absent from Northwestern's offense. Lausch's best quality is his athleticism and ability to make plays as a runner, so much so that he played some wide receiver for the Cats in 2023. Lausch had one non-sack carry on Saturday against Iowa. The keeper went for 14 yards, but Lujan never went back to it. This after Lausch ran for 55 yards against Wisconsin, and was NU's best offense.

The play-calling has been nonsensical at worst and misguided at best in 2024. The Lujan experiment should be put to bed after the end of the 2024 season for the good of the program. It would be borderline malpractice from Braun to not tear down to the studs an offense as disastrous as the Cats' 2024 unit. It remains to be seen if Braun has the gumption to replace a coordinator after just one season, but it is impossible to win games with an offense this poor.


2. Will Northwestern be more aggressive in the transfer portal?

The transfer portal has taken over college football, for better or worse. Northwestern, though, has taken a much more selective approach to the portal. The quarter system does Northwestern no favors in this regard. Many transfers who enter the portal during the initial window in January would have to wait to enroll in classes until April when the University's spring quarter begins, so Northwestern has been forced to wait and make most of their additions during the spring window. This wait-and-see approach avoids the awkward situation of transfers committing to NU but being unable to enroll in classes for a couple months, but also hamstrings Northwestern's ability to make sweeping improvements.

The majority of transfers enter the portal during the initial window in January. Wide receiver Cam Johnson is an example of an early transfer, committing to the Wildcats in January of 2023. The quality of player is usually higher, too, as most spring entrants are players who realized at the conclusion of spring practice that they would not be playing much at their former school. There can be gems in the spring window, to be fair. Players like Peyton Ramsey and Ben Bryant were later entrants into the portal after finding out that they would not remain the starting quarterback at their old schools due to a future Heisman finalist taking their job or a coaching change, respectively. Northwestern was able to land both players and were led to successful seasons by the two veteran quarterbacks. Hoping that good players get forced out is a gamble Northwestern takes every year. This past offseason, a player of Ramsey or Bryant's caliber wasn't in the portal in the spring when Northwestern attempted to find a veteran quarterback. The Cats landed on Wright, who, while a talented runner, had never found consistency as a passer and could be reckless with the football. Both those traits followed the veteran to Evanston and cost him his job after just two starts.

With Lausch not resembling a Big Ten quarterback through six starts, and Wright and Ryan Hilinski both being out of eligibility after this season, Northwestern's coaches will almost certainly be in the portal looking for a quarterback again at the conclusion of the 2024 season. It would be wise of the coaches to be aggressive in the initial portal window, right after the season ends, to identify a talented signal caller that could elevate the Wildcat offense and the team as a whole.

ONE BOLD PREDICTION

Northwestern's offense will score a touchdown against Purdue.

It might seem impossible, but Northwestern's offense will break through and score their first touchdown in nearly a month against the Boilermakers. The Purdue defense has struggled thus far in 2024, ranking 123rd in college football in total defense while allowing an average of 451.6 yards per game. The Boilermakers give up 38.43 points per game, which ranks 129th in the country.

The matchup between the Wildcat offense and the Purdue defense will be a case of a very stoppable force meeting a very moveable object, but the Cats' offense will finally remember what the end zone feels like and end their touchdown drought on Saturday.

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