Published Sep 5, 2023
The 3-2-1 going into Week 2
Louie Vaccher  •  WildcatReport
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Here are three things we learned about the Rutgers game, two questions we have moving forward and one bold prediction about the future as the Wildcats prepare to take on UTEP in the home opener on Saturday.


THREE THINGS WE LEARNED ON SATURDAY

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1. The offense’s problems go far beyond turnovers.

Last year, Pat Fitzgerald named turnovers as the No. 1 reason for a disastrous 1-11 record, particularly for his offense. It made sense: the Wildcats had the worst turnover ratio in the nation last season at -19.

But we learned yesterday that the unit’s problems go far deeper than giveaways. Even though the Wildcats lost the turnover battle 2-1, the real issue is that they couldn’t move the ball, even when they held onto it.

Northwestern had just 201 yards of total offense against the Scarlet Knights. They ran the ball for just 12 of those yards when sacks and losses are figured in. Quarterback Ben Bryant, the seasoned grad transfer who was supposed to help the Wildcats take care of the football, was sacked five times, threw two interceptions and fumbled twice. The Wildcats averaged an anemic 3.2 yards per play and went three-and-out or worse five times in 12 possessions.

In other words, they couldn’t get out of their own way. They only avoided a shutout with 19 seconds left and the game long over, on a drive that began with a muffed punt in Rutgers territory.

It’s difficult to find a single thing that Northwestern’s offense can feel good about after one week.


2. The offensive line has a lot of work to do

Maybe the biggest single reason for the offense’s struggles was the line.

Bryant was under siege all day. Even when he managed to avoid a sack, he was often driven out of the pocket because of pressure, or had to deliver the ball faster than he wanted to.

Rutgers set up camp in the Wildcats’ backfield, collecting eight tackles for loss. The Knights’ defensive line featured a pair of strong pass rushers in Wesley Bailey and Aaron Lewis, but neither of them registered a single sack. It was the rest of the unit that wreaked havoc, as five different players were credited with a sack, while Bailey and Lewis had one hurry each.

The worst part is that some of those pass rushes were untouched and had a clear line to the quarterback due to missed assignments or misreads by the offensive line. Rene Konga, who had two TFL and a sack, often went unblocked because of miscues, as did blitzing Scarlet Knights who wound up in Bryant’s face as he tried to deliver the ball.

Bryant admirably took responsibility for some of the sacks, saying he held onto the ball too long. But he never really had the time to hold onto it. The offensive line has to get a lot better. Quickly.


3. The defense has a chance to be decent.

Northwestern’s defense couldn’t stop a running faucet at the start of the game, as Rutgers mounted a pair of 16-yard drives that ate up 155 yards and more than 15 minutes on the clock. But after that, they settled down and played fundamentally sound football.

On Rutgers’ next eight possessions, the Wildcats surrendered 10 points, including a field goal that came after an interception gave the Knights the ball at the NU 45. Northwestern allowed more than 31 yards on just one drive, and they forced three three-and-outs.

Interim head coach David Braun doubles as the defensive coordinator, and his defense seems to be closer to retired defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz’s “bend-but-don’t-break” system than the one that Jim O’Neil ran the last two years. That’s a good thing.

Braun’s defense largely worked as designed, as they only gave up one play of 20 yards and continually made Rutgers execute on long drives to score. Unfortunately, at least early in the game, they did just that. And it’s important to remember that Rutgers’ offense shouldn't be mistaken for Colorado’s. They scored just 17.4 points per game last season, second-worst in the Big Ten (you can guess who was the worst).

On the negative side, the Wildcat defense also exhibited many of the same struggles they had last season. They didn’t take the ball away once, and they allowed Rutgers to convert 8-of-18 third downs and 3-of-3 fourth downs. They also didn’t pressure the passer, failing to register a single sack and just one quarterback hurry, as Rutgers’ passer Gavin Wimsatt had a lot of time to survey the field.

Still, the defense showed signs that they might be considerably better than they were last season, when they finished 110th in the nation against the run. They limited Rutgers to 122 rushing yards and 2.8 yards per carry. That doesn’t excuse the slow start, but there is some hope that the Wildcats’ defense might be able to keep them in games.


TWO QUESTIONS

1. Where was the fire?

After two months of scandal and lawsuits, we figured that no team in America would be more ready to start the season than Northwestern. We were told as much by players and Braun, who said that his team wanted to show the world who they were. He thought they were a “special” team.

So it was a surprise when the Wildcats came out flat-footed and got punched square in the mouth by Rutgers. The defense got pushed around as the Scarlet Knights put up 14 points and 155 yards on their first two possession, while the offense couldn’t string a drive together and had the ball just 1:37 of the opening quarter.

Where was the juice? Where was all the pent-up frustration after two months of watching themselves, their coaches, their administration and their program face intense scrutiny and critique? Where was that “galvanized” team we heard so much about? Where was that “Cats against the World” mentality?

Northwestern was simply not ready to play coming out of the tunnel. That was as disappointing as anything that happened on the field at SHI Stadium.


2. How many games will the Wildcats win this year?

Before the season started, there was some optimism that Northwestern could be a pleasant surprise this season as a team with a low bar of expectations. Then, Sunday happened. While it’s important not to overreact to one game – especially the first game under a new coach – it’s pretty clear that this team will more than likely go winless in the Big Ten. Rutgers, a team that also won one league game last season, was, by far, the Wildcats’ best hope to notch a win in the conference this season.

Las Vegas is as pessimistic about the Wildcats as fans. They stand as a 1.5-point underdog to UTEP in the home opener on Saturday. That’s a shocking number for a Big Ten team hosting a Group of Five non-conference opponent, but the Wildcats earned it.

If the Wildcats don’t beat the Miners, the losing streak will almost certainly reach 16 before their next shot at a win. After the Miners, Northwestern faces Duke, Minnesota and Penn State: three games you can put in the loss column.

Then, Howard comes to town on Oct. 7 for Homecoming. A game against an HBCU program from the FCS seemed like a gimme before the season, but that’s what fans thought about Southern Illinois last season before the FCS Salukis embarrassed the Wildcats.

After a bye week, things get bleaker, with Nebraska, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois remaining. The Wildcats may be double-digit underdogs in every game, and that’s also the time of year when injuries could significantly hamper a team that is already low in numbers.

So outside of those two non-conference foes, it’s difficult to envision any more potential wins. Our over/under right now is 1.5.


ONE BOLD PREDICTION

Brendan Sullivan will take over the starting quarterback job at some point this season.

This isn’t an indictment of Bryant, who did as well as could be expected under constant pressure and showed some impressive arm strength on some of his throws when he was given a pocket. Nor is it a reward for Sullivan leading a touchdown drive in garbage time against second-teamers.

No, it’s because Sullivan is more mobile and, with Northwestern’s shaky offensive line, that’s a skill that’s more of a need-to-have than a nice-to-have. Plus, if he continues to take as many hits as he did on Saturday, we wonder whether Bryant will make it to the end of the season, anyway.

Teams are going to pin their ears back and come after Bryant, who flashed some agility on Sunday but remains mostly a pocket passer operating behind a line that can’t protect him. Sullivan, a more athletic QB, might be able to slow them down a little bit because he also presents a legitimate running threat. And, once they get into the backfield, he has a better chance of escaping pressure and extending plays with his feet. Sullivan also offers a legitimate option to pull the ball and keep it on a read-option should the Wildcats ever decide to run the ball consistently.

Sullivan has lost two quarterback battles in fall camp already in his career. He finished as runner-up to Ryan Hilinski last season but took over halfway through the season as the offense faltered. He may do the same this season.