Published Sep 9, 2024
The 3-2-1 going into Week 3
Michael Fitzpatrick  •  WildcatReport
WildcatReport

Here are three things we learned from the Duke game, two questions we have moving forward and one bold prediction about the future as the Wildcats prepare to host in-state foe Eastern Illinois.



THREE THINGS WE LEARNED ON FRIDAY NIGHT

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1. Northwestern gave one away.

It's hard to look at what happened Friday night in Evanston as anything other than a failure for Northwestern. The Wildcats had a golden opportunity to start the 2024 campaign 2-0 and continue the momentum that was building behind the program after a strong finish to last season and a win to open the new year. Instead, thanks to mistake-filled football and poor coaching decisions, Northwestern is left trying to pick up the pieces.

Duke attempted to hand the game to Northwestern repeatedly during the second half. After Northwestern forced a Blue Devil three-and-out to open the second half, graduate transfer linebacker Noah Taylor blocked the punt and it was recovered by Joe DeHaan at the Duke nine-yard line.

What did Northwestern's offense do with starting in a goal-to-go situation? Absolutely nothing. A first-down run by Cam Porter was completely blown up for a loss of two after the offensive line barely got a hand on a single Duke defender. On second down, Marshall Lang was running wide open in the end zone, but quarterback Mike Wright's throw didn't even end up in the same area code as Lang, and he was fortunate that Duke safety Terry Moore Jr. dropped an easy interception. Wright then misfired on third down, setting up a 29-yard field goal for Jack Olsen. The wind did him no favors, but Olsen doinked the chip-shot off the right upright to let the Blue Devils off the hook after giving the Wildcats as good field position as a team can get.

Duke promptly gave the ball right back to the Cats, however, when Theran Johnson picked off Maalik Murphy at the Duke 45-yard line. Northwestern again failed to capitalize as redshirt freshman running back Caleb Komolafe fumbled the ball right back to the Blue Devils three plays later.

Missed opportunities continued to pile up as Wright airmailed a throw to an open Bryce Kirtz in the end zone, forcing the Wildcats to settle for a field goal on their best second-half drive. The offense couldn't kill much clock on a pair of drives after taking a fourth-quarter lead. To top it all off, with Porter gashing the Duke defense in overtime, the ball was taken out of his hands by offensive coordinator Zach Lujan in the crucial moments of the second overtime, and the disastrous results ended any hopes of eking out a win.

Head coach David Braun has said that he wants his program to be built on details and doing the little things right; "out-teaming" the opponent as he calls it. Northwestern did anything but out-team Duke on Friday night. Northwestern, especially on offense, beat themselves time and time again until eventually it was too much for the Cats' defense and special teams to overcome.

If Northwestern had taken advantage of either Duke mistake to begin the second half, the Cats likely could have coasted to a victory on the back of a defense that was nothing short of dominant in regulation. Instead, the Cats sit at 1-1 and are left trying to get things back on track after a sixth-straight loss to Duke, this time is disappointing and devastating fashion.


2. The quarterback competition isn't over.

Braun has been relentlessly positive since taking over as the head man in Evanston in July of 2023. He has constantly deflected blame and criticism away from his players and placed it squarely on his own shoulders.

On Friday, Braun was as critical as he ever has been about a player when discussing his quarterback's performance.

"Mike did some good things tonight but he needs to improve...," Braun said about Wright. "He needs to do a better job of valuing the football, taking care of the football and operating within the offense."

Braun certainly did not throw Wright under the bus, but rather just remarked that he needs his veteran quarterback to step up and play like a veteran. Still, it was striking to hear Braun so openly critique a player's performance. Braun was not out of line, either, as Wright certainly deserved it.

Indecision plagued Wright on Friday. Whether he decided to throw or pull it down and run, it was often too late and any window had been closed by Manny Diaz's defense, leaving Wright with no room to run and only coverage to throw into. And throw into coverage he did.

The graduate transfer signal-caller finishing with only one interception does not tell the full story of just how reckless he was against the Blue Devils. Wright's interception was an ill-advised floater into double coverage which was easily picked off by Moore. The Blue Devils quickly took advantage of the short field and scored their only touchdown of regulation.

Wright had two more near-interceptions where he hit Duke defenders in the hands but they dropped them both, and a third where wide receiver Calvin Johnson II had to turn into a cornerback to prevent an easy Duke pick. Wright also lost the ball on a scramble but was able to catch the loose ball before it hit the ground.

Later, on a designed keeper, Wright lost the ball, but was ruled down. Replay, however, showed that the ball appeared to be out before Wright hit the ground. If Duke's defense was a little-more sure-handed and he wasn't able to corral the ball both times he lost the handle, Wright easily could have accounted for six turnovers. As Braun's comments make clear, that is simply not sustainable for the Wildcats.

Based on the results of two games, Northwestern's offense is probably not going to be a high-scoring unit in 2024. Life is hard enough as it is for the rest of the team to carry more weight and get the Wildcats across the finish line. When the quarterback is careless with the football on top of it, it makes it nearly impossible. Duke scored 13 points in regulation; 10 of those came on short fields after turnovers. If the Cats didn't turn the ball over, they almost certainly would've been celebrating a 2-0 start to the season at the end of regulation.

Braun said the team will stick with Wright behind center for the time being, so he will have an opportunity on Saturday against Eastern Illinois to show he can take care of the football. If not, Braun certainly insinuated that he would have no qualms considering handing the reins of the offense over to redshirt sophomore Jack Lausch.


3. Northwestern's defense can only do so much.

With 1:33 remaining in the game, it seemed like the Wildcat defense had completed one of their greatest bailouts ever. After nearly a full 60 minutes of mistakes from Northwestern's offense, the Cats needed one final stop from their overtaxed defense to find a way to win.

Anto Saka dragged Murphy down for a sack and the ball came out. Najee Story quickly jumped on the loose ball and it seemed like Cats had the win in the bag. After replay, it was ruled that Murphy was down and Duke retained possession before kicking a short field goal to force overtime. Duke found the end zone on both their possessions in the extra sessions, but criticizing the defense for that is missing the forest for the trees. The defense did everything it could for four quarters, allowing just 13 points and giving Northwestern a chance to win a game it had no business winning.

The Cats held Duke to 4-of-15 on third down, forced a turnover with Johnson's interception and held Duke to only 93 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry. All in all, a very good performance. One that should have been and was oh so close to being good enough for Northwestern to leave Martin Stadium undefeated.

The 2024 Wildcat defense is certainly a bend-but-don't-break unit. Counting the overtime scores, 23 of Duke's 26 points came when they started with a short field. Northwestern's defense is outstanding, but they need help. This unit is good enough to win games for the Cats, but when the offense repeatedly makes life harder on them, there's a limit to how much Xander Mueller & Co. can carry the team. We saw that on Friday.

TWO QUESTIONS

1. Can Zach Lujan handle this level?

Braun took a calculated risk by plucking Zach Lujan from the FCS ranks to be the new offensive coordinator. Lujan is not even 30 years old and had only been an offensive coordinator for two years at South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits were back-to-back national champions in the FCS, with a sizable talent advantage over most of their opponents. At Northwestern, he would be taking over an offense that has not been able to consistently move the ball and put up points in over a decade. After two games, there are plenty of questions about the Alaska native's playcalling.

The most pressing example was the inexplicable third-down call in double-overtime. As Northwestern faced a third-and-1 from the Duke three-yard line, Porter had picked up 39 yards on seven touches to that point in overtime. On the second possession alone, Porter had gained all 22 yards. Yet Lujan decided to call a QB run with Wright that was completely blown up and lost eight yards.

Porter was the hottest hand in the stadium. Duke could not stop the Cats' fifth-year senior running back, and Lujan went away from the only thing that had worked all night for Northwestern offensively. It ended up costing Northwestern the game. It seemed that if the Wildcats had just kept handing it to Porter all the way through the mandatory two-point conversion, the Cats were going to escape with a win. Instead, the loss of yardage led to Wright's fourth-down throw falling incomplete in the end zone.

Lujan isn't the first coach to outsmart himself into an ill-advised play call, and one play should never determine a coach's ability. Through the totality of the first two weeks, however, there has been a lot more bad than good from Lujan's group. Negative plays have been aplenty and have killed more than their fair share of drives. The Wildcats are also one of just five FBS teams that hasn't thrown for a touchdown yet.

Granted, Lujan hasn't gotten much help from his quarterback. Wright has missed an open touchdown to Bryce Kirtz in both games, and also completely misfired to a wide open Lang on Friday. Still, through two weeks, Northwestern is averaging only 16.5 points per game and is 83rd in the country in yards per game. It's still very early, but after really struggling on offense both weeks and taking the ball out of Porter's hands, Lujan is facing more questions than he showed up to Evanston with.


2. Can the offensive line be even better?

One of the bright spots for the 2024 Northwestern offense has been the play of the guys up front under new offensive line coach Bill O'Boyle.

Wright has yet to be sacked through two games, and the Cats are averaging a respectable 140 yards per game on the ground at 4.1 yards per carry. Presumptive starting left guard Jordan Knox has yet to return from injury suffered in last season's bowl game and his replacement Nick Herzog missed the Duke game, too. Getting Knox and Herzog back healthy will absolutely help the depth up front.

Another avenue to improve the offensive line play is new center Jack Bailey finding a groove with his snaps. Bailey is new to the center position after spending most of his previous five years of his career at guard. After three snaps were mishandled in the opener, Wright had to play shortstop quite a few times against Duke to handle low snaps. More repetitions will only help Bailey settle into his role as the man in the middle, and Northwestern hopes snap troubles will be a thing of the past.

Finding consistency at center and getting healthy has the potential to turn the offensive line into a strength of the Northwestern offense, something that was unthinkable just a year ago.

ONE BOLD PREDICTION

Anto Saka will play on Sundays.

Through two weeks, Saka leads the Cats with 1.5 sacks, picking up right where he left off after finishing second on the team with 5.5 sacks in 2023. His first solo sack of the season was heartbreakingly close to sealing a Northwestern win on Friday. That followed up a Week 1 performance where his six pressures were the second most of any player in college football, according to Pro Football Focus.

Saka has a burst that no one else on Northwestern's defensive front, and very few players in the country, has. He also has the power to absolutely overwhelm offensive linemen when he decides to bullrush them. Northwestern almost exclusively uses him on passing downs and rounding out his game to play against the run will be an essential next step for the Maryland native before making his case to the NFL.

His get-off and nose for the quarterback are impossible to deny and will make him an intriguing prospect when he decides to move on to the next level, and his picture will be adorning the video board at the new Ryan Field during the #ProCats in-game segment one day in the not-too-distant future.