Published Sep 18, 2023
The 3-2-1 going into Week 4
Michael Fitzpatrick  •  WildcatReport
WildcatReport

Here are three things we learned about the Duke game, two questions we have moving forward and one bold prediction about the future as the Wildcats prepare to take on Minnesota at home under the lights on Saturday.


THREE THINGS WE LEARNED ON SATURDAY

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1. Duke still has NU's number

Saturday's 38-14 thrashing marked the fifth-straight loss for the Wildcats at the hands of the Blue Devils. At one point, Northwestern had won eight of nine over their academic peer, but the script has completely flipped.

The streak started in 2017, when Duke thoroughly handled Northwestern in a 41-17 beatdown. The Wildcats have narrowed the margin down to one score twice, but the outcome has not changed in over a half decade. Northwestern was still outmatched by the team from Durham.

As two of the premier academic institutions in the Power Five, Northwestern and Duke often go head-to-head in recruiting. The consistent failure on the field from Northwestern has and will continue to hurt recruiting. With Stanford also struggling on the field, Duke has cemented itself as the choice for recruits looking to receive a top degree while also playing winning football.


2. Northwestern isn't physical enough

Duke owned the line of scrimmage against Northwestern. The home team totaled a whopping 268 yards on the ground thanks to a sparkling 6.7 yards per carry mark.

The man in charge of the Blue Devil offensive line that paved the way for such a dominant day on the ground? None other than former Northwestern offensive line coach Adam Cushing. The guy calling the plays? Offensive coordinator Kevin Johns, a former NU wide receivers coach.

On the other side, Northwestern only ran for 104 yards and averaged 3.5 yards per carry.

The Cats were dominated at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. That isn't a new phenomenon, either. Northwestern has consistently struggled to hold up against Power Five competition over the last two-plus seasons.

The Cats' 5-22 record dating back to the start of the 2021 season isn't due to just one factor. Strength and conditioning, though, might be the biggest issue within the program at the moment. A complete inability to control the line of scrimmage will continue to present significant problems for Northwestern this season.


3. Defense can't get out of the blocks

That’s three games, three opening-drive touchdowns for Northwestern opponents in 2023. After a three-and-out from NU to open the game, Duke got the ball and marched 56 yards in just six plays to go up 7-0.

Jordan Waters' 24-yard run continued the trend of slow starts for Northwestern's defense this season. Every opponent has started the game up 7-0 so far. In the first two contests, the NU defense was able to settle in and find a way to turn in an overall strong performance.

That wasn't the case in Durham as Duke shredded Northwestern all day to the tune of 487 total yards and only stopped when the dogs were called off. Interim head coach and defensive play caller David Braun blamed Northwestern's struggles on his conservative play calling.

“I felt that as a defensive play caller, I played it passive," he said. "I didn't give our guys opportunities to be aggressive and get those guys behind the sticks. With the way they're coached offensively, the talent they have, specifically at quarterback, when they stay on schedule and stay in rhythm, they're a very dangerous team."


TWO QUESTIONS

1. How will the quarterback position be handled?

All things considered, Ben Bryant has played pretty well this year. It hasn't been perfect, but Bryant has pretty limited weapons and a porous offensive line making his life immensely more difficult.

When Brendan Sullivan has gotten into blowouts against Rutgers and Duke, though, the offense has moved much better than it ever has under Bryant. Granted, Sullivan's reps have come in garbage time when the game has already been decided and opponents reserves are tasked with preventing big plays. Sullivan so far has completed 80% of his passes for 53 yards and touchdown while running for 33 more yards and another touchdown.

Bryant has completed 55.2% of his passes for 408 yards, with two touchdowns and three interceptions. The most compelling argument for Sullivan replacing Bryant is developing him for the future. Bryant is in his last year of eligibility, while Sullivan has two more left after 2023. NU certainly isn't going to accomplish much of anything this season, so allowing Sullivan to get experience and determine if he has what it takes to be the quarterback of the future is a way to gain something worthwhile out of a lost season.

Braun, and the rest of the coaching staff, are coaching for their futures, though. If they feel that Bryant gives them the best chance to win, it's unlikely they'll make a switch with the future in mind.


2. Can Northwestern replicate Duke’s turnaround?

David Cutcliffe had a very successful 14-year run as Duke’s coach, but it ended badly, as the Blue Devils went 5-18 over his final two seasons. So Duke went out and hired an up-and-coming assistant coach in Mike Elko, and he has paid immediate dividends. The Blue Devils won a bowl game last season and are now 3-0 and ranked 18th in the country, with a win over then-No. 9 Clemson in the opener.

Northwestern should look to Durham for hope that it is possible to quickly turn around a failing program with the right coach, even at an academic school with very little football tradition.

Admittedly, there are differences that make NU’s situation much more challenging. Duke didn’t have the stain of a hazing scandal and their resulting lawsuits to contend with. The school presumably has an administration much more capable than Northwestern’s has shown. Elko also inherited a dynamic quarterback in Riley Leonard that hasn't been seen for a while in Evanston.

But Northwestern has some advantages over Duke, too, including top-notch facilities, a planned new stadium and affiliation with the Big Ten, one of the two super-conferences in the country.

Elko came in and preached toughness and, by all accounts, has made football fun again at Duke (even if the size of the crowd at Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday indicated that fans may have not gotten the message yet). He was a known commodity but not a sexy name when he was hired. The mess at Northwestern may scare away some of the bigger names in coaching, but they might be able to find their Mike Elko and get the program back on track.


ONE BOLD PREDICTION

It's going to be a long year.

There's not much to say after a game like Saturday's. Northwestern was thoroughly outclassed from start to finish. It won't be the last time Cats fans see that in 2023.

Northwestern has only scored seven points outside of garbage time in their two games against Power Five opponents in 2023. It is, by definition, impossible to win if you can't score.

Northwestern's offense has looked absolutely brutal other than the second half of the UTEP game, and there isn't much reason to believe it's going to get much better. The offensive line doesn't give the quarterback much time or open many holes in the running game. The receivers struggle to create separation, and even when they have gotten open, Bryant hasn't always delivered.

On the other side, Northwestern's defensive line was completely overmatched and the Wildcats' inability to tackle in the open field allowed Duke to turn simple plays into significant gains.

Even in games like this upcoming Saturday against a Minnesota team that has struggled so far in 2023, it's hard to imagine Northwestern remaining competitive. Is there any hope of NU's defensive line holding up against Minnesota's power run attack? Can Northwestern's offense score double digits?

It's difficult to see Northwestern finding many wins in the Big Ten this year based on how overmatched they've looked physically in both outings against Power Five opponents thus far. There should be plenty more garbage time touchdowns for fans to discuss as the Cats struggle through Big Ten play for the third year in a row.