The Big Ten added Oregon and Washington as members this week in the conference's latest expansion. The conference, now 18 teams, pulled in its latest pair from the Pac-12 at a discount after they were unable to negotiate a competitive television rights deal.
The Ducks and Huskies will come into the fold with reduced revenue shares that increase by a million dollars annually, but still pale in comparison to USC and UCLA's full, $60+ million annual shares.
Northwestern, a Big Ten founding member, still sits high and dry amidst the maelstrom of realignment. Let's break down how the latest changes affect Northwestern's outlook in the seasons to come and further down the road.
This creates a chance for short-term scheduling improvements
In the short term, the addition of the Oregon and Washington will reshuffle the Big Ten's carefully crafted Flex Protect Plus scheduling. Northwestern had one of the toughest draws in the conference with Ohio State and Purdue as their at-large games for 2024 and 2025, albeit with the Boilermakers bringing in a new coach this season in Ryan Walters, along with their protected rivalry with Illinois.
The Big Ten said they wouldn't be starting from scratch, but Northwestern's schedule is due to shift at least slightly with the new additions. Whether that means not having to play Ohio State in back-to-back years, or no longer facing UCLA and USC in 2024, there a lot of avenues for the schedule to get easier.
It is likely that Washington and Oregon would play both UCLA and USC in 2024 and 2025 to minimize their already steep travel costs. Nebraska will probably get as many of those former Pac-12 teams as they can manage as the nearest existing Big Ten team.
Oregon and Washington raise the level of conference play even higher
While one or both programs could get the Wildcats off the hook to play the Buckeyes, Washington and Oregon still stand as two opponents well outside of Northwestern's current weight class. They have bigger stadiums, more money and more recent success.
Washington could struggle in the conference with the increased strength of schedule, especially once they lose their Heisman-contending quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but Oregon projects to compete amongst the conference's elite.
Just two years ago, the Ducks showed their mettle by beating Ohio State in Columbus. They've put together a season of 10 or more wins under four different coaches in their last 11 seasons. They're no strangers to adversity and will compete with the conference's elite.
Even if Washington struggles, these are yet another pair of teams in a now 18-team conference that project to be ahead of Northwestern for years to come.
Northwestern also used to have the advantage of the weaker West division and could compete for a title when they were at their best and the stars aligned. Now, if the Big Ten follows through on its plan to eliminate divisions, the Wildcats would need to finish better than all but one of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC and Oregon in one big pool. That's a long shot in any year.
Games at Oregon or Washington do very little to help NU off the field
In what feels like eons ago, former head coach Pat FItzgerald said this spring that the USC and UCLA additions to the conference could actually help Northwestern. They would have the program playing in Los Angeles, capitalizing on the university's national brand to appeal to West Coast recruits, as well as alums who would have a chance to see the team play in-person.
Washington and Oregon bring the competitive edge of the LA programs without any of the added benefits. When Northwestern travels to Eugene or Seattle, they'll likely go home with a loss rather than a signal boost and an opportunity to fête local alums.
The California recruiting well is deep, and something Northwestern has drawn from before. Their ability to draw upon it will increase with regular games in the state.
The wells of talent in Oregon and Washington are much shallower and harder to reach, and there have been very few Wildcats from the Pacific Northwest over the years. The addition of away games in those states will have a minimal impact on Northwestern's recruiting efforts.
Northwestern could lose their seat at the table
In a worst-case scenario for the program, Washington and Oregon effectively ending the Pac-12 could mark another step down Northwestern's path away from the highest ranks of the sport. In 2010, there were six power conferences with BCS bowl bids. Not even 15 years later, that number is down to four.
So far, no team has been outright relegated from a Power Five conference in the modern era, though Temple was kicked out of the Big East in 2004.
However, we just saw that the ways conferences drop teams isn't via an ultimatum or dismissal: it's simply not extending them an invitation to the next party. Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State are all programs with long histories who may be left behind as Power Five programs.
Each of those schools had a season with eight or more wins within the last six seasons. Oregon State won 10 games LAST year! They beat Oregon in the Civil War, won a bowl game and plan to compete for the conference title in the last season of Pac-12 football.
It didn't matter. Their inability to provide value to a possible Pac-12 television rights deal spurred Oregon and Washington to secede to the Big Ten, and Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado to depart for the Big 12.
If there is a "super league" in the future, it will take shape as a merger between the Big Ten and the SEC, with the best of the rest from the ACC and Big 12. It should be on the minds of Northwestern's athletic administration right now to figure out their pitch to that league on why they should have a spot -- beyond the fact that they were a charter member of the Big Ten (then the Western Conference) way back in 1896. They will need to make one or they may not have a chair when the music stops playing.
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