It has been a question in the back of Wildcat fans’ minds all season. After Northwestern’s season officially ended last Thursday with a loss in the Big Ten Tournament, it came to the front.

Will Chris Collins be back to coach the Wildcats next season?

On Monday afternoon, Dr. Derrick Gragg answered it. At 5:42 p.m., Northwestern athletic director sent out a press release stating that Collins would, indeed, be back for his 10th season as head coach in 2022-23.

“Coach Collins and I met today to discuss the high expectations we have for our men’s basketball program, and the path forward for it. At the conclusion of a challenging season, I share in the disappointment felt by our staff and avid fans,” the first-year AD stated in the release.

“As our Wildcats enter the offseason, we are committed to evaluating all aspects of the program on and off the court to ensure we are supporting this team with the foundation necessary to compete and win in the nation’s best college basketball conference. I have tasked Coach Collins with making necessary changes to build towards success in the 2022-23 campaign.”

What those changes are is anyone’s guess, but the message to Collins was pretty straightforward: he’d better win more games next year, or he may lose his job. This wasn't a vote of confidence; it was more like a warning shot.

Gragg’s move was exactly what I expected it to be. It’s also in line with what sources close to the program were telling me.

If Gragg’s decision had been strictly about basketball, he probably would have let Collins go. But there were other factors involved. Financial ones.

While it’s easy to argue that Collins deserved to be fired with three years left on his contract based on what happened on the floor this season, there were many more reasons to keep him. About nine million more.

That’s the amount of money that Northwestern would owe Collins if they fired him. The program would have to pay him the roughly $9 million remaining over the last three years of his deal.

That’s a hefty price for a program that has never liked to buy out contracts in the past – and especially now, during a period when all athletic departments are still feeling the financial effects of COVID-19. (Even Nebraska, a program that has no shortage of cash flowing into the program and has never been shy about paying coaches to walk away in the past, kept underperforming coaches in both football and basketball this year, albeit with salary and buyout reductions.)

It’s also a big number for Gragg to swallow. Still new to his role, he’s already asking donors to pony up to renovate Ryan Field in a major capital fundraising campaign. He probably didn’t want to stick his hand out again for the money to pay someone $9 million not to coach his team, and then pay someone else presumably more to coach it.

Many Northwestern fans aren’t happy with Gragg’s decision. Many have been calling for Collins’ firing on our message boards and on social media since the Wildcats won just two of their first 10 conference games and everyone realized a return trip to the Big Dance – or any postseason tournament, for that matter – wasn’t going to happen.

Their reasons are valid. He can’t win close games. He’s made one postseason in nine years. He hasn’t had a winning season since 2017. His career winning percentage at NU (.470) is now lower than that of his predecessor, Bill Carmody (.478). Since taking Northwestern to the NCAAs, Collins is 60-90 (.400) overall and just 26-71 (.268) in Big Ten play.

Those are fireable numbers. Even at Northwestern. Even for the one coach in history who led them to the Promised Land.

And Collins put up those dismal numbers after the administration sunk $110 million into the program and built him a brand new, state-of-the-art arena and practice facilities. The program stepped up and infused the program with unprecedented funds in an effort to seize the moment and make Northwestern basketball relevant.

Collins had a better situation and more support than any Wildcat coach in history, and he shot an air ball.

Maybe most galling is that this was supposed to be the year for the Wildcats. Collins was given the opportunity to reset the program in 2019-20, a luxury very few coaches get. He elected to play young guys and take their lumps, with the idea that they would develop, “learn how to win” and break through this season.

So the Wildcats suffered through two painful seasons, losing 30 of 39 Big Ten games, to get to this year. But with the table supposedly set, this veteran, experienced team couldn't even get to .500. They posted a 15-16 overall mark and won just seven of 20 Big Ten games. They still proved incapable of winning in crunch time, going 5-12 in games decided by fewer than 10 points.

Yes, the players like Collins. Yes, they play hard for him. Yes, his guys graduate. But in terms of results, that simply wasn’t the return on investment that donors were expecting.

After Iowa completely embarrassed the Wildcats in a 112-76 beatdown in the second round of the conference tourney to bring the season to an end, Collins, as he has several other times this season, talked about the improvement his team has made over the last three years, from three to six to seven Big Ten wins. The numbers weren’t as large as he wanted them to be, but he was proud of his team for showing progress.

But upon further examination, even that argument doesn’t hold up. Three of those seven conference wins in the regular season came against Nebraska and Minnesota, the only two teams to finish below Northwestern in the Big Ten standings. One came against Indiana, which had just suspended five scholarship players, including two starters; one came against a Maryland team that had fired its coach two days prior; and one came after they blew a 24-point second-half lead to barely survive Rutgers in overtime.

The Big Ten was, indeed, a meat grinder this season, with nine teams qualifying for NCAA Tournament play. But Northwestern also lost five games to non-Tournament teams – including come-from-ahead home losses to Penn State and Maryland – and went just 4-15 against KenPom Top 100 teams.

Still, all of that wasn’t enough, in Gragg’s mind, to outweigh the price tag a coaching change would cost him. While some see the decision as something akin to waving a white flag and accepting mediocrity, the rationale is obvious. Next year, the remaining money will be reduced by a third and the financial climate could be more favorable to relieving Collins of his duties. The Wildcats also have four seniors coming back and, with an infusion of an impact transfer or two, could be competitive next season, even after losing star Pete Nance.

Ironically, Gragg’s press release came the day after NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday. Back in 2017, that day was an iconic moment for the Northwestern program. They heard Greg Gumbel say, “Northwestern,” and saw the school’s name appear in a tournament bracket for the first time ever, setting off a celebration at the last event at the old Welsh-Ryan Arena.

The Wildcats thought they had found the basketball version of Pat Fitzgerald in Collins, and they quickly locked him up to a long-term deal directly after the tournament. It was the right thing to do.

Now, five years later, that same contract may have prevented the program from doing the right thing this time around.