As you might have heard, Northwestern is in the NCAA tournament for the first time in history.
By now, you’ve probably seen footage of the Wildcats landing, practicing and even studying in Salt Lake City. You’ve heard about Barret Benson’s mom leading a plane full of passengers in singing “Go U Northwestern.” You’ve read, watched and listened to numerous Northwestern grads in the media (including yours truly) talk about what it means for the Wildcats to make the tournament.
But there’s also some basketball to be played and another team – a pretty good one – on the line opposite Northwestern.
You have to wonder whether the NCAA Selection Committee was intentional in matching No. 8 seed Northwestern and No. 9 seed Vanderbilt when putting the bracket together. The similarities are uncanny.
Both are academic schools known more for GPAs than PPGs. They are both the lone small, private, academic school in their respective conferences (Northwestern the Big Ten, Vanderbilt the SEC). They are both coached by the sons of famous coaches (Northwestern’s Chris Collins, the son of Doug; and Vanderbilt’s Bryce Drew, the son of Homer), who, on top of it, are former college stars and good friends.
There are no shortage of storylines in this contest, though they have all been overshadowed by the big one: Northwestern’s first trip to the Big Dance.
Here’s a quick look at the Commodores.
Record: 19-15 (10-8 SEC). What jumps out here are those 15 losses, the most ever for an at-large bid in an NCAA tournament.
The season: Vanderbilt was left for dead after losing its fourth straight on Jan. 17 to fall to 8-10. But the Commodores caught fire, winning 11 of their last 16 and 7 of their last 9 to come into Salt Lake City as one of the hottest teams in the field. Along the way, Vandy beat tournament teams Iowa State, Arkansas, South Carolina and Florida (three times, including once in the SEC Tournament).
Key stat: 337 – the number of 3-pointers Vanderbilt shot this season, the ninth-most in the country. As you might expect from a team coached by Drew, a deadly shooter in his day, Vanderbilt likes to hoist 3s early and often, averaging just under 10 makes per game (9.9). The Commodores are pretty good at hitting them, ranking 59th in the country in 3-point percentage at 37.7 percent, but there’s no question they are volume shooters. Seven Commodores have hit at least 24 triples this season.
Personnel: Vanderbilt features a balanced attack, with four players averaging in double figures: Matthew Fisher-Davis (13.6 ppg), Luke Kornet (13.2), Jeff Roberson (11.0) and Riley LaChance (10.5). Kornet, a big man with touch, leads the team with 6.2 rebounds per game and 68 blocks on the season. LaChance, the point guard who likes to score, has the most assists with 3.9 per game.
Key matchup: Luke Kornet vs. Dererk Pardon. This is a case of Mr. Outside vs. Mr. Inside. Even though Kornet, at 7-foot-1, is five inches taller than Pardon, Vandy’s center will try to pull Pardon outside. Kornet shot 156 3-pointers this year, making 56 (32.7 percent); Pardon shot exactly zero. While Pardon might be out of his element on the perimeter, he will have the edge inside, where he is a better rebounder (8.0 per game) and has a nifty post game that could give Kornet fits.
Three keys for the Cats:
1. Focus. This may seem silly: what team wouldn’t be focused on its historic first game in the tournament? But the Wildcats have been the epicenter of the college basketball world for a week now. This is uncharted water for a team that is usually way under the radar in March. Are they just happy to be invited to the ball, or did they come to dance? It will be a challenge for the Wildcats to put all those distractions aside and focus on executing the game plan against a team that is getting no attention and would love nothing more than to shatter NU’s glass slippers.
2. Guard the 3-point line: Vanderbilt likes to use screens and picks to force an opponent to switch defenders. When the Commodores get a matchup they like – a big on a little, for example – or get some space from a slow switch, they will let it fly. Fortunately, Northwestern has done a pretty good job defending the 3 this season, ranking fourth in the Big Ten in holding opponents to 33.5 percent shooting. The strengths of the Wildcats’ defense are communicating and rotating. They will need to be at their best today in closing out on shooters beyond the arc.
3. Avoid the scoring drought: Northwestern’s defense has been solid all season, but its offense has been as streaky as a worn out windshield wiper. The Wildcats were on the upside of a legendary 31-0 run against Rutgers and the downside of a 22-0 run by Indiana. The Wildcats had several long scoring droughts when they went without a basket for three, four, five or six minutes, and they’ll have to avoid that against Vanderbilt, which can score in bunches when they get hot from long distance.
The skinny: This is an 8 vs. 9 matchup, so it should be a tight game. The Las Vegas line this morning has Vanderbilt as a 1.5 favorite. The Commodores are hot, but Northwestern played very well down the stretch as well, winning three of five, with wins over Big Ten Tournament champion Michigan, Rutgers and NCAA No. 6 seed Maryland in a de-facto road game in Washington D.C. Everyone in Vivint Smart Arena not wearing Vandy black-and-gold will be pulling for Northwestern. We say the Wildcats will get their first tournament win in a nail-biter (come on, who do you think we’d pick?). They’ve waited 79 years to get here, might as well stay a couple more days.
The pick: Northwestern 71 Vanderbilt 69
