The Take: Music City Bowl

Northwestern takes on Kentucky in the Music City Bowl on Friday in Nashville. Will the Big Ten's Wildcats beat the SEC's Wildcats for their second straight bowl win and third in four tries?

We breakdown the numbers and key questions, and give you our fearless prediction.

How will the layoff affect each team?

It’s been more than a month since Northwestern or Kentucky played a game, and you never know what kind of an impact that will have on a team.

At the end of the season, these teams were going in opposite directions. Northwestern won seven straight to close the year, including its last two, over Minnesota and Illinois, by a combined score of 81-7. Kentucky, on the other hand, lost three of its last four, including its last two, to SEC champ Georgia and Louisville, by an aggregate count of 86-30. They won just two of their last seven games, beating only Tennessee (0-8 SEC) and Vanderbilt (1-7).

Northwestern would like to continue the way it played to close the year, while Kentucky would like to start over.

Historically, Kentucky has been a much better bowl team than Northwestern. The blue Wildcats are 8-8 all-time, including 2-2 in the Music City Bowl. The purple ones are just 3-10 all-time, though they’ve won two of their last three.

Who will run the ball?

This is probably the biggest question of the game and the one that will likely determine the outcome. Both teams want to run the ball with their star running back.

Kentucky wants to establish Benny Snell Jr., a first-team all-SEC 223-pounder who ran for 1,318 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. If he gets going on the ground, Kentucky will control the ball and be able to use the play-action passing game with Stephen Johnson, a dual-threat QB who is, at this point, more dangerous with his feet than his arm. However, that’s going to be difficult against a Northwestern rush defense that ranks 10th in the nation after allowing 111.3 yards per game on the ground.

Northwestern wants to get its all-time leading rusher, Justin Jackson, going. Jackson, who rushed for 1,154 yards and 9 TDs, had his ups and downs this season but closed the year strong, producing 310 yards in his last two outings. Kentucky’s rush defense has been a strong suit, giving up 162.2 yards per game, but they collapsed down the stretch as Georgia and Louisville ran all over them to the tune of 727 yards and eight scores.

Which offensive line plays better will have the edge in this one. Neither line is a strength of the team, but both improved as the season went on.

Who has the better Plan B?

If the running games falter – something that’s happened to both teams throughout the season – who has the better passing game to pick things up and generate offense? This is where Northwestern has a definite edge.

Kentucky’s Johnson is more of a game manager who takes care of the football but probably won’t be able to throw UK to a win. Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson, however, has proven this year that he can do just that, slinging the Wildcats to wins over Michigan State and Purdue when they rushed for less than 100 yards. Both quarterbacks completed around 60 percent of their throws, but Thorson had 800 more yards and five more touchdowns (15 to 10). Plus, Kentucky's pass defense ranked 112th in the nation, giving up 263.5 yards per game.

However, Thorson does have a tendency to make mistakes under pressure. He threw 12 interceptions on the season, eight more than Johnson, a quarterback who doesn’t take chances and excels at ball security. Johnson is also one of those players who can make plays outside of the pocket when protection breaks down.

Thorson and Johnson will both have to be productive in the passing game to keep the defense from loading up the box.

The more we analyze this game, the more we like Northwestern.

Offensively, Northwestern has a more balanced attack and Thorson is the more dangerous quarterback. The Big Ten Wildcats’ defense will try to take away Kentucky’s running game, keep Johnson in the pocket and make him beat them through the air. Kentucky also doesn’t have a lot of big-play threats at receiver and, given a month to prepare, we think the NU defense controls this one from start to finish.

It all adds up to a double-digit win and the third bowl victory in four tries for the guys in purple, who will put the school’s one-time nine-game bowl losing streak even further into the rear-view mirror.

The pick: Northwestern 30 Kentucky 20

Season: 11-1