In the end, the Big Ten punted.
The conference presidents announced on Tuesday that they would postpone football and all fall sports due to ongoing health and safety concerns related to the COVID-19 pandemic. They will try to make a go of it next spring.
The Big Ten said in a statement that it relied on the medical advice and counsel of the Big Ten Task Force for Emerging Infectious Diseases and the Big Ten Sports Medicine Committee to make its decision.
“Our primary responsibility is to make the best possible decisions in the interest of our students, faculty and staff,” said Northwestern President Morton Schapiro, the Chair of the Big Ten Council of Presidents/Chancellors.
“The mental and physical health and welfare of our student-athletes has been at the center of every decision we have made regarding the ability to proceed forward,” said Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren. “As time progressed and after hours of discussion with our Big Ten Task Force for Emerging Infectious Diseases and the Big Ten Sports Medicine Committee, it became abundantly clear that there was too much uncertainty regarding potential medical risks to allow our student-athletes to compete this fall."
Football, the sport that generates the most revenue and pays for most other sports at member institutions, was the biggest factor in this decision. The other sports included are men’s and women’s cross country, field hockey, men’s and women’s soccer, and women’s volleyball.
The Big Ten statement went on to say that it will “continue to evaluate a number of options regarding these sports, including the possibility of competition in the spring.”
Here are seven thoughts on the Big Ten’s announcement:
This decision seemed inevitable for weeks: The Big Ten's decision hardly came as a surprise. Despite the blowback leaked plans stirred up among media, players and even, in a stark departure, Big Ten coaches, this move was expected. It was a matter of when, not if. Even last week, when the conference released their revised schedule, they emphasized that the door could still be closed on a 2020 season.
Faced with a fourth down, the presidents opted for the most prudent, conservative strategy and kicked the ball away in the hopes of getting it back later. In this case, the spring. They bought themselves a lot more time.
At least the game isn't over.
There’s a lot of work to be done to play in the spring: Spring football makes a lot of sense on the medical end of things. A COVID-19 vaccine could very well be available by then, and the United States could have a better handle on the pandemic (though we haven't proven that over the last five months).
However, the Power Five still have a lot of questions to answer: How would a spring season affect scholarship numbers? What happens to fifth-year seniors? How about incoming freshmen who enroll early? How will a spring season work with the NFL Draft? Will marquee players who are likely to get drafted even play?
Then there's the elephant in the room: Can football players really play two football seasons in a calendar year? Football is already a dangerous, physically demanding sport fraught with injuries. Is playing somewhere around 20 games within nine months or so even feasible?
Warren needs to get his ducks in a row: The Big Ten has always prided itself on loyalty and unity. That was not the case in this situation, when several coaches went rogue and criticized the conference leadership’s decisions before they were even made.
Nebraska has been especially vocal, releasing a statement from the chancellor, president, athletic director and head coach on Tuesday challenging the Big Ten’s final conclusion and stating that the Huskers may pursue playing elsewhere this season, perhaps in another conference.
Leaks, misinformation and confusion reined throughout the process. Warren, who is still in his freshman year as the commissioner, was placed in an impossible spot, certain to anger at least half of the people no matter what he did. But in the future, he needs to close ranks and get his constituency behind him to ensure that everyone is singing from the same songbook.
Liability was a deciding factor: While many people cited the low death rates and milder symptoms among young adults as a reason to play football, the long-term effects of the disease are unknown. This weighed heavily in the presidents' decision.
Recent studies that linked COVID-19 to a rare heart condition found among several Big Ten athletes was particularly concerning, according to an ESPN story. Myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle, was discovered in at least five Big Ten athletes, and in several athletes in other conferences.
There were also anecdotal stories of the ravages of the virus. Most prominent among them was a Facebook post from Debbie Rucker, the mother of Indiana offensive lineman Brady Feeney, which detailed Feeney's harrowing battle with the disease.
The risk and potential liability associated with the long-term health problems of athletes were too much for the presidents to tolerate.
The NCAA was irrelevant: if this entire ordeal taught us anything, it’s how powerless the NCAA is. This monumental decision was made by conference commissioners and university presidents, with input from athletic directors, coaches and reportedly some players.
The NCAA was on the sideline, holding a clipboard, with no real jurisdiction. President Mark Emmert was nowhere to be seen.
College sports' governing body could be fighting for its very existence soon. The Power Five schools could easily decide to break off and go out on their own.
Players are flexing their muscle: College football players organized themselves and used their leverage during this process.
The #BigTenUnited and #Pac12United movements, reportedly signed by more than a thousand players in both conferences, issued lists of demands for players to participate in football during the pandemic. Several stars announced that they were opting out of the season.
This week, when reports first surfaced that the Big Ten looked to be moving toward canceling the season, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence tweeted the #WeAreUnited X #WeWantToPlay platform. It expressed players' desire to play this season and also called for, among other things, the formation of a college football players association.
Some six years after Northwestern's failed unionization attempt, organized college football player groups got their voices heard. Even President Donald Trump supported them, retweeting Lawrence's message with "The student-athletes have been working too hard for their season to be cancelled. #WeWantToPlay." (Donald Trump, a unionist. Who knew?)
Plans aren't going to cut it: To quote the noted philosopher Mike Tyson, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the month." He was talking about boxing, of course, but it also applies to the plans and protocols in place to safeguard players from COVID-19. They're very effective -- until the virus hits the locker room. And it will hit the locker room.
The low positive test rates that many programs touted as proof of safety were impressive, even if six of 14 Big Ten teams halted practice over the summer. But it's important to remember that those statistics were produced when campuses were empty and players were just working out. Once students return and players start mingling with them on campus, numbers will rise. The same thing will happen when teams start hitting and scrimmaging at practice.
Teams will be decimated once players who test positive have to quarantine for 14 days. What if it hits the quarterback room and takes out the top two or three QBs? When Northwestern had what they thought was a positive test, they contract-traced and put 37 players in quarantine for five days, until learning it was a false positive. That's a third of the team. Is that sustainable during the season?
The Big Ten and Pac-12 already called off their fall seasons, but the Big XII, ACC and SEC are still planning on playing, as of now. We think that they ultimately won't play, either. All they have are plans.