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PFF, a partner of Rivals, has quickly become a respected authority in college football. So we decided to take a look at how PFF thinks Northwestern will fare in 2021.
They don't paint a very rosy picture.
Coming off of an AP Top 10 ranking in 2020, PFF has Northwestern ranked 42nd in the nation this season. That puts them eighth in the Big Ten and fourth in the Big Ten West, behind Iowa (9th in the nation), Wisconsin (14th) and Minnesota (36th).
They project the defending Big Ten West division champions to win 6.8 games in 2021. Furthermore, they put the probability of Northwestern returning to the Big Ten championship game at just 9%, with a very slim 2% chance that the Wildcats will take home the conference title for the first time since 2000.
"Northwestern made a solid run at a Big Ten Championship in 2020, but the team ultimately fell short," writes PFF. "The Wildcats likely won't see similar success in 2021, as their best offensive player, quarterback Peyton Ramsey, and best defensive player, cornerback Greg Newsome II, are no longer on the team."
PFF's prediction doesn't come as much of a surprise, as the Wildcats lost several key players on both sides of the ball from a year ago. Offensively, they lost Ramsey, as well as their top four receivers (wide receivers Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, Kyric McGowan and Riley Lees, and tight end John Raine).
PFF does not think very highly of two of the quarterbacks vying to replace Ramsey. Transfer Ryan Hilinski, they note, posted a 60.8 PFF grade in his lone season as a starter at South Carolina in 2019, and "struggled to produce much downfield." Fifth-year senior Hunter Johnson recorded just a 44.6 grade in the five games he started for Northwestern in 2019.
They still, however, like the Wildcats' defense, even if stalwarts like Paddy Fisher, JR Pace and Blake Gallagher are gone.
"The defense should still be in good shape despite losing a first-round corner," says PFF, noting that Northwestern ranked No. 1 in the Power Five in expected points added allowed per pass play last season. "The Wildcats may not maintain that top spot, but their defense is likely going to remain near the top of the Big Ten."
Here is Northwestern's 2021 schedule with opponent PFF rankings.
vs. No. 70 Michigan State
vs. NR Indiana State
@ No. 93 Duke
vs. No. 86 Ohio
@ No. 51 Nebraska
vs. No. 108 Rutgers
@ No. 25 Michigan
vs. No. 38 Minnesota
vs. No. 9 Iowa
@ No. 14 Wisconsin
vs. No. 80 Purdue
@ No. 82 Illinois
The Wildcats rank higher than eight of their opponents, including unranked Indiana State from the FCS, but PFF doesn't see them winning more than seven games.