Work remains for the Wildcats to go dancing again

Northwestern is in a strong position with two games left in the basketball regular season, but that could all change in a hurry -- especially if the Wildcats lose a second starter for the stretch run.

The Wildcats stand at 20-9 (11-7 Big Ten) with two games remaining. Last season's team went dancing at 21-11 (12-8 Big Ten) in the regular season. This team seemed destined for an eerily similar route, but recent obstacles have emerged that could derail those plans.

First and foremost among them is injuries. Starting guard Ty Berry is out for the year, and starting center Matt Nicholson, who hurt his foot in Saturday's loss to Iowa, could join him on the injured list.

Losing two starters would be difficult for any team to overcome, let alone a team that began the year without a lot of depth. The one silver lining here is that head coach Chris Collins strongly suggested that guard Ryan Langborg's return is imminent after he missed the last two games with an ankle injury.

Then, there's the Chicago State loss back in December. The Cougars are ranked 300th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) Rankings, and that Quad 4 loss is dragging down the Wildcats' analytics like a bowling ball tied to their ankles.

The Wildcats are one of just 15 teams in the nation with five or more Quad 1 wins and five or more Quad 2 wins. They've beaten Purdue (NET No. 2), Illinois (NET No. 15) and Dayton (NET No. 21). But they remain 53rd in large part because they are the only one of those 15 to have lost a Quad 4 game.

Being in the mid-50s in NET at this stage of the season is certainly not optimal, but it's not cause for panic in and of itself. In 2023, Power Six teams like Penn State (48th), Mississippi State (49th), USC (50th) and Providence (56th) all made the tournament in a similar range.

Adjusted net efficiency rating, net points per 100 possessions weighted by quality of opponent, is another key factor, and one that has drawn Collins' ire.

"I know there's so much in metrics and I can't follow all that stuff because there's so much to it," he said at a press conference the day before the Iowa game. "I do think we're missing the mark with the point differential. I think winning and losing should matter."

NET, of course, is just one of the tools at the committee's disposal. From the official website: "Computer models cannot accurately evaluate qualitative factors such as games missed by key players or coaches, travel difficulties and other effects of specific games."

Unfortunately, that may not work in Northwestern's favor. Since their three crown-jewel victories, they lost Berry for the season to a meniscus tear. They rallied back to go 4-1 in their next five, with the only loss coming at Rutgers after the controversial ejection of Langborg early in the first half for a Flagrant 2 foul.

Then Langborg sprained his ankle in the win over Michigan. The Wildcats rallied once more to beat Maryland on the road for their fifth Quad 1 win of the season without him.

Last week's 87-80 loss to Iowa may have cost the Cats another key player. Northwestern played at a high level without Langborg but also suffered an injury to a third starter in Nicholson. Collins said after the game that Nicholson injured his foot and would undergo evaluation, and there's been no update on his status since. But Nicholson's injury was non-contact, and the rumor is that he may also be out for the season.

Iowa plays a fast-paced style but it's no coincidence that, without Nicholson, Berry and Langborg, the Wildcats suffered their first Big Ten loss at home and gave up their most points in regulation play at Welsh-Ryan Arena all year. Down the stretch, Northwestern couldn’t get a stop as Iowa scored on their last five possessions.

The star tandem of Boo Buie and Brooks Barnhizer remains healthy, despite the two highest minutes per game averages in the conference. But Northwestern, like any team, is different when you take away some of their best supporting players, and the committee is well aware of that.

The Wildcats should get Langborg back soon, but the onus is now on them to show the committee they deserve a postseason chance over their final two regular season games and in the Big Ten Tournament.

We broke down each opportunity and its potential impact here:

The Wildcats travel to play Michigan State, darlings of the NET at No. 22 despite a 17-12 (9-9 Big Ten) record and three straight losses. Buie has made his bones against Michigan State, earning a national reputation as a Spartan Killer. The Wildcats have won four of their last five games against Sparty with Buie at the helm, including their last two at the Breslin Center.

None may have been more difficult, or more important, than this one and the Wildcats have opened as nine-point underdogs.

Berry is out, and Nicholson almost assuredly will be, too. Northwestern will need to rely on Luke Hunger, averaging 10.6 minutes and 3.6 points per game, as their likely starting center, and Blake Preston, averaging 9.5 minutes and 1.9 points per game, in relief.

The Wildcats have proven to the Selection Committee they can win without Berry. Assuming Langborg returns against Michigan State, they'll have to prove they can do it without Berry and Nicholson.

The loss of Nicholson may not have an outsized impact against the Spartans, however. The 7-foot senior played just 10 minutes in Northwestern's 88-74 win over Michigan State on Jan. 7 at Welsh-Ryan; it was Hunger who got the start and tallied 10 points and four rebounds in 19 minutes, while holding MSU center Mady Sissoko to just seven points and five rebounds. So the Wildcats have strong proof-of-concept that Hunger can hold his own in this matchup.

They're still without Berry, who led the Wildcats with 22 points in the January victory. If Langborg is back and close to 100%, and Nick Martinelli continues his torrid scoring -- 44 points in the last two games -- the Wildcats may have the firepower to steal a win in East Lansing for the third straight game.

If they can, they'll nip any tournament concerns right in the bud. If they can't, even coming up slightly short, doubt may start to creep in about the team's efficacy without Nicholson to anchor the paint.

The one wild card here is Michigan State's desperation for a win. The Spartans' backs are against the wall, and you have to figure that, at home, with their own tournament destiny on the line, they'll come out hungry and focused.

Impact of a win: Tournament lock

Impact of a loss: Pressure is on to beat Minnesota

Northwestern has an opportunity to cap off its season on Senior Night by avenging a 75-66 loss in overtime at The Barn on Feb. 3. This is a key game for the NCAA Tournament, and a fundamentally critical game for the Big Ten Tournament.

Northwestern is 11-7 in the Big Ten and controls its own destiny to stay in third place. If they win out, the double-bye is theirs for certain. There is still a high likelihood for them to remain in a top four, double-bye slot even if they split their last two games, as they will likely swap places with fourth-place Nebraska, which is a half-game back at 11-8 with only last-place Michigan left to play.

Nebraska holds the tiebreaker over Northwestern. Even though the two teams split their season series 1-1, the Huskers beat Purdue in their sole matchup and the Wildcats split their series with the Boilermakers, giving Nebraska the edge.

The other team with eight Big Ten losses and a tiebreaker advantage is fifth-place Wisconsin. However, Wisconsin closes their season with a game at Purdue and are highly unlikely to pull off such an upset.

Since the 2015 Big Ten Tournament, when the double-bye system debuted to accommodate the additions of Rutgers and Maryland, just one team to earn a double-bye has missed the NCAA Tournament: 2017-18 Nebraska, which finished 22-11 (13-5 Big Ten). The other 31 teams got an invitation.

Northwestern lost at Minnesota at a difficult juncture of the season, having earlier in the week taken Purdue to overtime at Mackey Arena, the closest a team has gotten to a win in West Lafayette this season. They took on the Gophers a few days later, who had a week off to prepare, and came up just short.

The Wildcats need to capitalize on the opportunity or they will fan the flames of doubt, especially if they wind up losing their last three games of the season and injury concerns swirl. A loss to Minnesota would not only put a dent in Northwestern's tournament resume, it could knock them as low as eighth in the conference standings ahead of the conference tourney.

Impact of a win, with a win over MSU: Clinch at least third-place in conference; lock for NCAA Tournament

Impact of a win, with a loss to MSU: Strong likelihood of an NCAA Tournament berth

Impact of a loss: Bubble potential; still need a Big Ten Tournament win

Even with two games to play, there are myriad ways the Big Ten seeding can shake out on top of what has already been described. If Northwestern wins out and Illinois loses to Iowa, the Wildcats could even take the No. 2 seed in the conference via tiebreaker.

If the Wildcats draw the second or third seed, their case is ironclad and Wildcat fans can head into Minneapolis relaxed and ready for their second straight NCAA Tournament trip. A Top 3 seed in the Big Ten has never been kept out of March Madness in the double-bye era.

Should they finish fourth, with a guaranteed double-bye and a berth in the quarterfinals, it is still key for them to be competitive in their matchup. They need to execute at a high level, win or lose, and a win would probably seal the deal.

If the Wildcats lose their last two regular season games and wind up as a five seed or lower, avoiding upset in the second round to a team seeded 11th to 14th in conference is paramount. A four-game skid to end the season would place Northwestern firmly on the bubble, and possibly out, depending on how things fall out elsewhere.

Second or third seed: Lock for NCAA Tournament

Fourth seed: Need competitive quarterfinal or could fall back onto bubble

Fifth seed or lower: Need to win second round game and play competitive quarterfinal to keep tournament hopes alive