Our 2019 Season Preview series wraps up with a look at the Wildcats' schedule.
With the 2019 season opener just days away, we take a look at the path Northwestern will have to navigate to defend its Big Ten West title.
Week 1: at Stanford, Aug. 31
2018 Record/Finish: 9-4/3rd in Pac 12 North
Previous opponent: Nobody (opener)
Following Opponent: at USC
Interesting Stat: Stanford has won 11 consecutive home openers, and by an average margin of 25 points.
In a rematch of the 2015 season opener that sprung the Wildcats to a 10-win season, NU will have to travel out West to Palo Alto this time.
On offense, the Cardinal return a three-year starter at QB in K.J. Costello, who ranked 17th nationally in pass efficiency offense last year, and an All-American TE in Colby Parkinson. They will be young at WR, though the talent is there. Where the question marks lie are the two positions that Stanford typically never has questions about under ninth-year head coach David Shaw: running back and offensive line. Though they bring back three of their top four rushers from last year, none of them averaged more than 4.5 ypc or ran for more than 340 yards in his career. Expect these three, plus four-star recruit Austin Jones, to get a crack at stabilizing the run game which finished 123rd nationally last season. The O-line only returns two starters, but one of their new guys, RT Foster Sarell, was a former top OL recruit in 2017.
The defense was respectable in 2018 and brings back two-thirds of its total production. Their biggest area of strength is up front. The defensive line is more athletic than they are stout, with only one of their top six D-Linemen weighing more than 300 pounds. The Cardinal ranked 24th in the nation in sacks, but just 85th in TFLs caused, meaning they are better on passing downs than they are against the run. This could be an area where the Wildcats could use a heavier dose of RB Isaiah Bowser to batter the defense. Stanford's secondary features second team All-American CB Paulson Adebo, who had 20 PBUs and 4 INTs to go along with 64 tackles (third-most on the team). SS Malik Antoine also returns, but they have two new starters in the back four going against what should be a potent Northwestern passing attack.
Stanford was good in defending the red zone last year (35th in the nation), so the Wildcats will need to finish their business when they get their opportunities inside the 20-yard line. Stanford didn’t create a lot of turnovers last year, so if Northwestern can balance the run with the pass, and cash in their red zone opportunities, they should find themselves in good shape in this one.
Week 2: Bye, Sept. 7
Week 3: UNLV, Sept. 14
2018 Record/Finish: 4-8/5th MWC West
Previous opponent: Arkansas State
Following Opponent: Air Force
Interesting Stat: UNLV is 2-15 all-time against the Big Ten (0-2 vs Northwestern), with both wins coming against Wisconsin.
On paper, Northwestern should be a double-digit favorite over the Rebels, but the Wildcats have a habit of playing down to their competition in non-conference action (see Akron last season).
The Rebels have a dynamic QB in Armani Rogers and potential for explosion on the outside at receiver, even without last year’s leader Brandon Presley, who suffered a season-ending injury this spring. They return four O-Linemen from last year’s team that led the country’s 19th-best rush offense. But it was a completely different story in the passing game, where they finished in the bottom third as far as protecting the line of scrimmage. The Rebels lose a couple key players from their rush offense but return 80% of their overall offensive production. The run-game should still be explosive as the return four players who averaged more than five yards per carry, and they bring in a couple new guys to help add to the machine.
Defensively, the Rebels were not very good, and haven't been since 2007. They ranked in the bottom 30 last season in scoring, explosive plays and red-zone defense. The LBs should be good, though, headlined by Javin Whit,e Gabe McCoy, and big-time recruit “Vegas” Vic Viramontes, who originally committed to play QB at Minnesota. But without firm play up front or a secure secondary, this defense could again be exploited, especially by a veteran Wildcat receiving corps and a seemingly capable quarterback.
Northwestern should exploit these weaknesses on the ground and in the air, and use this game as a chance to build confidence in all facets of their offense. If there is to be a turning of the corner in Northwestern football, it should be seen in their offense in this game. In front of the friendly confines of Ryan Field, the Wildcats should put up 400+ yards against the Rebels.
Week 4: Michigan State, Sept. 21
2018 Record/Finish: 7-6/4th in Big Ten East
Previous opponent: Arizona State
Following Opponent: Indiana (Homecoming)
Interesting Stat: NU has won the last three games against MSU by an average margin of 11 points per game, but has also lost five of the last six vs. the Spartans in Evanston.
Michigan State has had plenty of recent problems with the Wildcats. The Spartans struggled through injury last year, but if healthy, they should be one of the more intriguing teams in the Big Ten in 2019.
It starts (and could potentially end) with senior QB Brian Lewerke. He was great as a sophomore, but a shoulder problem made last year utterly disappointing. He’ll have a good set of WRs to throw to, led by Cody White and Darrell Stewart. The run game and the O-Line are what they need to solidify this season. A lot of hype surrounds freshman RB Anthony Williams to compliment Connor Heyward and La’Darius Jefferson. The O-Line returns all five (six, really) starters, plus highly rated recruit Devontae Dobbs, but if they can’t get more aggressive and stick blocks better, the offense will once again be a liability.
Defensively, the Spartans had one of the best units in the country and can once again boast such a claim. Eight starters return from a Top 10 unit in terms of scoring defense, yards per play and rush defense. The heart of the heat is up front, as the Spartans have maybe the best front four in the conference led by DE Kenny Willekes and Chicago-native, DT Raequan Williams. Go to the next level and you have MLB Joe Bachie, one of the Big Ten’s best. Then, in the secondary, they have hitters and hounds who will keep passes away from threatening receivers.
MSU must get over the Fitz-stique that NU has thrown their way the past three seasons, when the Spartans have been favored each time. It’s the Big Ten opener for both, and each can start their season with a serious step in the right direction with a win. Keep in mind, NU has won 15 of their last 16 regular-season conference games. Just sayin’.
Week 5: at Wisconsin, Sept. 28
2018 Record/Finish: 8-5/2nd Big Ten West
Previous opponent: Michigan
Following Opponent: Kent State
Interesting Stat: The home team has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, but Northwestern has two of those three road wins.
In what should be a trophy game, the Badgers and Wildcats have done well at protecting their respective home turfs. Of course, that doesn’t bode well for Northwestern in 2019.
Wisconsin boasts maybe the best running back in the nation in Jonathan Taylor and they always have a good offensive line, so replacing four starters up front shouldn’t make anyone flinch. They also have maybe the most under-appreciated group of pass-catchers in the Big Ten, led by TE Jake Ferguson and WRs AJ Taylor and Quintez Cephus, who was just reinstated by the NCAA. This is a unit that did two things very well last year: 1. Run the football (6th in NCAA), and 2. Create big plays (12th). The question in 2019 revolves around the QB position. For the moment, it appears that veteran Jack Coan will start the season, but Badger Nation is clamoring for true freshman Graham Mertz to get his cracks, so he could be "the man" by the time the Northwestern game rolls around.
On defense, Wisconsin ranked in the Top 50 in scoring defense, yards per play and pass efficiency defense. Six starters come back from that group, and it seems like more than that as injuries to several players last year opened up opportunities for fellow Badgers down the depth chart. Their strength will be in the secondary, as seven of their top nine DBs hit the turf again after finishing 40th against the pass last season. LBs are also going to be good, as Chris Orr and Zack Baun lead a group that truly can go about seven or eight deep. The play of the defensive front will likely influence whether the Badgers are a West front-runner, or just a contender, as they placed just 115th in the nation in sacks last year. Their two returning starting DEs combined for two sacks, three TFLs and four QB hurries. Keeping their quarterback clean will go a long way toward NU’s success, especially against that secondary. And, as NU well knows, the Badgers are hard to beat in Jump Around Mad-town.
Week 6: at Nebraska, Oct. 5
2018 Record/Finish: 4-8/5th in Big Ten West
Previous opponent: Ohio State
Following Opponent: at Minnesota
Interesting Stat: NU has won three of the last four in Lincoln, and six of the last eight meetings between these two have been decided by a touchdown or less (five by a field goal or less).
Lincoln has become a home-away-from-home for Northwestern, which is 3-1 at Memorial Stadium, with the only loss coming on a fluke Husker Hail Mary on the last play of the game. However, the sleeping giant that is Nebraska could be waking up with Scott Frost in his second year, and the Huskers have become a sexy pick to win the West.
The Huskers offense will be volatile (22nd in OFF yards per play last year) with a Heisman-candidate QB in Adrian Martinez, a handful of talented receivers, led by JD Spielman, and three athletic and lofty TEs (two of them go 6-foot-7 or taller). The key to the Huskers’ success will lie in how better-adjusted their O-line will be, and whether they can find a consistent threat at RB. Mo Washington and/or Dedrick Mills could be those guys, but there are some big “ifs” in that department. Still, expect this offense, after two full offseasons under the direction of Scott Frost and OC Troy Walters, to explode for yards and points alike.
Where everybody holds their reservations on anointing Nebraska as being “back” is on the defensive side of the ball, where DC Erik Chinander's style has drawn criticism about its fit in the Big Ten. The aggressive 3-4 defense did not seem to work last year and was never really considered stellar, even at UCF. The good news for Nebraska is that they bring back their top tackler and TFL guy in LB Mohamed Barry, QB havoc-guy in DE Ben Stille and cover guy in CB DiCaprio Bootle. Their front should be better by two additions: new position coach Tony Tuioti and Oklahoma State transfer NT Darrion Daniels, who will join Carlos and Khalil Davis up front, along with Stille. The Huskers will need to play better defense in this game, as the Wildcats have scored 30 points or more in three of the last four contests with the Scarlet-and-Cream. But if the Cats get into a shootout, odds might favor the Big Red.
Week 7: Bye, Oct. 12
Week 8: Ohio State, Oct. 18 (Friday)
2018 Record/Finish: 13-1/Big Ten Champions
Previous opponent: Bye
Following Opponent: Wisconsin
Interesting Stat: In six of the last seven meetings (all won by Ohio State), the Buckeyes have scored at least 45 points against the Wildcats. In that same span, NU has only topped 20 points twice.
In a rematch of last season's Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis, the Buckeyes arrival in Evanston will be the marquee event on the Wildcats' 2019 schedule, and it will all happen in prime time on Fox on a Friday night.
OSU should have one of the more prolific offenses in the Big Ten, with the influences of Ryan Day and co-offensive coordinators Kevin Wilson and Mike Yurcich, who are all considered to be some of the best offensive minds in the game. All eyes will be on Georgia transfer QB Justin Fields, directing the offense with depth at the offensive skill positions that rivals any roster in the country. There’s sensational RB J.K. Dobbins and backup Master Teague, to go along with a fast and talented of receivers, headlined by K.J. Hill. But it’s the untested offensive line that's going to be the difference in whether OSU is just very good or great. Rutgers transfer G Jonah Jackson brings some starting experience to join returning T Thayer Munford, but aside from that, the Scarlet-and-Gray are a tad green. Still, expect a lot of points form this unit.
Defensively, OSU brings back a lot of production: more than 80% returns to the field for the Buckeyes in 2019. Seventeen of their top 19 tacklers return, as well as their leader in every major statistical category. DE Chase Young headlines the defense, but the back seven behind him should give Buckeye fans the most assurance, as all seven starters could end up with All-Big Ten honors in some way, especially under new co-coordinators Greg Mattison and Jeff Hafley. CBs Jeffrey Okudah and Damon Arnette will form one of the conference’s best tandems, and FS Jordan Fuller cleans up the middle pretty good. This will be one of the most improved defenses in the country and should be much better in nearly every category, especially red-zone defense, where they finished 117th a season ago.
Northwestern has beaten Ohio State just once since 1971 (2004), and a win in this one seems like a tall, tall order, even at home in prime time.
Week 9: Iowa, Oct. 26 (Homecoming)
2018 Record/Finish: 9-4/4th in Big Ten West
Previous opponent: Purdue
Following Opponent: Bye
Interesting Stat: Northwestern, which has beaten Iowa three straight times, hasn’t beaten Iowa in four straight since 1926-32.
Though they really don’t go public with it, this is (and always will be) a rivalry to head coach Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats.
Iowa brings back the most experienced quarterback in the Big Ten in Nate Stanley. Many remember his coming-out party in destroying then-third-ranked Ohio State, but that was one of only two wins he’s had in six games against ranked teams going into this year. And, if things go right, the Wildcats could be ranked by Week 9. Stanley has a little less to throw to in 2019, after losing his top three pass-catchers from a year ago. He does have one of the Big Ten’s best O-lines in front of him (top 14 in both sacks allowed and TFLs allowed), but with that thin group of receivers and no All-Big Ten RB to supplement the pass game, this offense could struggle this year. They were 85th in offensive yards per play and 95th in rush offense a year ago, so unless a hidden star emerges, this group will probably be respectable at best.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes were one of the country’s most efficient groups, finishing in the Top 35 in most relevant defensive categories. But losing five of their top eight tacklers, which includes four-fifths of their defensive-line rotation, and the top two players in the secondary, means their defensive gel might take some time. Fortunately, for Iowa fans, they have one of the best in the biz in DC Phil Parker, so this defense should be just fine by the time they roll into Evanston. The question is, can they get enough help from their offense to climb back to the top of the Big Ten West? This game will come down to which group executes better: the Northwestern offense or the Iowa defense?
Week 10: at Indiana, Nov. 2
2018 Record/Finish: 5-7/6th in Big Ten West
Previous opponent: at Nebraska
Following Opponent: at Penn State
Interesting Stat: NU has won five in a row against the Hoosiers, but the last six games in Bloomington have been split 3-3.
We’ll be honest: this game scares us. It comes right after Iowa and before a Jeff Brohm-led Purdue team that always warrants an outside eye. Mark it down: the Hoosiers could be the surprise of the Big Ten this year. They were a young, but promising team last year, and they are looking to stick their foot in the ground and make some noise in 2019.
Offensively the Hoosiers have some pretty good skill guys. Whoever wins the quarterback race among Peyton Ramsey, Michael Penix and Jack Tuttle) will have earned it, as the race still seems to be a dead heat at this time. They’ll have two good backs in Stevie Scott and Sampson James, a freshman who decommitted from Ohio State and was in Bloomington for spring practice. They’ll be working with new OC Kalen DeBoer, who comes over from Fresno State, where his team averaged 407 yards and 31 points per game in his two years in California. Six of their top eight pass-catchers return to give the settled QB targets something to work with, if an OL that replaces three starters from a year ago can give them some time to work.
The defense goes to work under a new DC, but they’ll have three solid players at each level on defense to build around. It starts in the middle with two good DTs, Juan Harris and Jerome Johnson. HUSKY (hybrid OLB/SS) Marcelino Ball is their defensive MVP, and CBs Raheem Layne and Andre Brown can disrupt the outside routes. The Hoosiers have to get better on this side of the ball, as they were in the bottom-third of all major defensive categories, worst of all- red zone defense and pass efficiency defense.
Week 11: Purdue, Nov. 9
2018 Record/Finish: 6-7/3rd Big Ten West
Previous opponent: Nebraska
Following Opponent: Bye
Interesting Stat: NU has won seven of the last eight meetings, including five in a row. However, NU has won just four of the last nine matchups in Evanston.
Purdue is only one of two teams not to get a first-place vote for winning the Big Ten West this season. So that means recently re-inked head coach Brohm has some pressure to prove they are not the same old Purdue.
If healthy, QB Elijah Sindelar can sling it. His mobility is a problem, though, especially after a history of knee injuries. They’ll have good WRs -- we all know about Rondale Moore -- and a sharp offensive system with which to work, so they should be able to move the ball aerially and put up points. What they need to find is a RB who can distract defensive minds off of the potent passing game. A heavy factor in their fortunes will be what happens on the offensive line. They replace three starters -- all up the middle -- from a group that was in the middle or bottom of the pack in sacks and TFLs allowed, and 101st in rush offense. This group has to be straightened up for the Boilers to achieve success.
The defense will actually be the better of the two units in 2019, as they return a lot of production from last year (72%). Their strength will be the front seven, where five starters return and they add a nationally ranked top-50 recruit in DE George Karlaftis to go along with an all-conference grad transfer LB in Ben Holt. Their weakness will be in the secondary, where they were 84th in pass-efficiency defense and lost their top cover guy and top DB tackler. Then again, DC Nick Holt is one of the best in the conference at making chicken salad out of chicken (expletive). Still, we see the Purple-and-White prevailing in this game.
Week 12: UMass, Nov. 16
2018 Record/Finish: 4-8/NA
Previous opponent: at Army
Following Opponent: at BYU
Interesting Stat: UMass is 2-8 all-time against teams in the Big Ten, with both wins coming against Rutgers.
Wildcat fans can take solace in the comfort of NU playing an apparently “weaker” non-conference opponent in November, as opposed to September, when they've struggled against similar opponents the past five years. Still, Fitzgerald and his guys will tell you they don't overlook anybody.
UMass is led by a new coach, Walt Bell, with a lot of energy who likes to run up-tempo and put the ball in the air. Their passing game was good last year, but they’re likely to take a step back in 2019 due to graduation and the transition to a new scheme and system. They lost their top two passers, their leading receiver and top three rushers -- a lot of offensive production. Not only that, they also lost two OL from group that was 122nd in sacks and 83rd in TFLs allowed.
If the O-line was bad, the defense was downright rancid. The Minutemen were in the bottom five nationally in five major defensive rankings, giving up an average of 42 points per game, and they lost nine starters from that group. Perhaps its addition by subtraction, but UMass will still be in the negative on the stop-side this season.
This should be a game where NU tunes up and gets mentally fit for Minnesota the next week. We know that Northwestern has traditionally played these games close, relative to the level of their opponent, and we hope we don’t see that this year.
Week 13: Minnesota, Nov. 23
2018 Record/Finish: 7-6/6th in Big Ten West
Previous opponent: at Iowa
Following Opponent: Wisconsin
Interesting Stat: Pat Fitzgerald 4-2 vs Minnesota in Evanston, but Northwestern hasn’t beaten Minnesota in three straight games since 1982-84.
This team may have the most hype of any Big Ten squad this year, and a lot of that is the product of head coach/politician/salesman P.J. Fleck. But will this positive pub be perfume or poison for the Gophers? After painting his team as “the youngest in America” last year, they seem to have grown up and bring back nearly everybody.
Headlining those returning is the deepest group of RBs in the conference, if not the country. So much so, that some publications are calling for 1,000-yard rusher Mohamed Ibrahim to share time with previous four-digit rushers Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks. Joining them is QB Tanner Morgan, the better of their two QBs from last year. He’ll have a full stock of proven receivers to throw to, including Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman. The offensive line is a bit slow at tackle, which bodes well for NU’s stellar pass-rush DEs, who got to Minnesota's QBs four times last year.
Recently promoted DC Joe Rossi had a good showing toward the end of last season, though it was just four games of work and these Wildcats scored the most against his squad (24) in that span -- even more than Moore-led Purdue (10) and Taylor-led Wisconsin (15). The Minnesota defense should be solid in the back end, but for the Gophers to transcend, they need to get better at creating havoc in the backfield. The boat-rowers were just 85th in TFLs and 95th in sacks caused last season, despite having all-conference DE Carter Coughlin. They also struggled stopping teams in the red zone, allowing 28 scores in 32 opportunities (88%) and yielding touchdowns at a 19-9 rate.
Under Fleck, Minnesota has been outscored 63-14 in two meetings against the Wildcats. This one should be closer, but if the Purple continues to pour on the points in this series, this NU defense should be able to fend off the Gophers and emerge victorious.
Week 14: at Illinois, Nov. 30
2018 Record/Finish: 4-8/7th in Big Ten West
Previous opponent: at Iowa
Following Opponent: End of regular season
Interesting Stat: If Northwestern beats Illinois this year, it will set an Illini record for their longest losing streak (five games) against the Wildcats.
The LOL Game -- an acronym which can take on different meanings depending on who you ask -- is Northwestern’s trophy game, played annually on Thanksgiving weekend against their in-state rivals. The winner gets the Land of Lincoln Trophy. It's a game that the Wildcats have dominated for four straight years, but domination may not be the word to describe this one if Illinois head coach Lovie Smith can properly utilize and manage his athletic talent this year.
The Illini will have speed on offense, led by All-Big Ten RB Reggie Corbin, who led the country in explosive runs a year ago and averaged 8.5 yards per carry. People forget that this was the 12th-best rushing team in college football last year (though the Wildcats held them to their third-lowest output). And they go deep behind Corbin, so this will clearly be the strength of this team. Four of the starting O-linemen return and they add Alabama transfer Richie Petitbon to fill the one void left. Still, they need to be better at protecting the line of scrimmage and give their backs room to run; they were 104th in TFLs allowed a season ago. They get Michigan-transfer Brandon Peters at quarterback, who was a four-star recruit, and slot guy Trevon Sidney from USC to help boost what was an awful passing game in 2018.
The defense, while good at creating turnovers, was universally atrocious last year. They finished in the bottom 10 nationally in scoring defense, yards per play and rush defense. They also owned the 116th-worst pass defense. They return nine starters from this group, but now Smith is manning the defense, in addition to being the man in charge of this program. Their back seven is their relative strength, in terms of getting to the football, but they need to be better tacklers once they arrive. LB Jake Hansen and Washington transfer Milo Eifler should be active in the middle of this 4-2-5 scheme. The D-line will be improved, though they lost their top player from last year due to an unfortunate swimming accident this summer.
Fitzgerald is 8-4 versus the Illini and has never lost to his friend Smith, a coach he greatly admires. Putting a major emphasis on winning the recruiting battles in the state of Illinois, Fitzgerald knows exactly how vital it is to win this game and keep the streak alive.