After half a decade that felt more like half a century, Northwestern has made its return to the NCAA Tournament. After a 21-11 (12-8 Big Ten) season filled with highs and lows, the Wildcats earned the No. 7 seed in the West Region and a trip to Sacramento, Calif.
Their first-round opponent is No. 10-seed Boise State, the second-place finisher in the Mountain West with a 24-9 (13-5 Mountain West) record. The teams will tip-off at 6:35 CT (TruTV).
This matchup could produce another low-scoring, grind-it-out type of game that the Wildcats have been playing all season. Northwestern ranks 13th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com. Boise State is just one spot behind them at 14th. The Wildcats allow just 62.5 points per game, the Broncos 64.3. So easy baskets will be tough to come by.
Boise State has a deep starting five, but a relatively short rotation. They only play seven players more than 10 minutes per game, but their starting five all averages 10 or more points.
The Broncos are led by first-team All-Mountain West forward Tyson Degenhart who averages 14.3 points per game on 53.7/33.3/70.9 splits. He's joined by a dynamic backcourt of sharpshooter Max Rice, who shoots 41.5% from three and 85.3% from the line, and point guard Marcus Shaver, who leads the Broncos in rebounds with 6.1 per game despite being just 6-foot-2. Therein lies the rub.
The Broncos are small, really small. Their starting lineup peaks with Degenhart, Chibuzo Agbo and Naje Smith, all at 6-foot-7. They have four players on the roster who are 6-foot-10 or taller, but only one, Lukas Milner, has started this season. Milner has four starts, three to start the season and then against San Diego State on February 28, but he averages just 13.6 minutes and 3.1 points per game. The other three big men average 6.5 minutes per game or fewer.
In short (if you'll pardon the pun), there's a significant size discrepancy. Northwestern starts 6-foot-9 Robbie Beran at the four and 7-footer Matt Nicholson at center.
The Broncos may be small, but they are mighty. Their trio of 6-foot-7 forwards shoot a combined 37.4% from three, with Degenhart, their leading scorer, hitting 33.3% from beyond the arc.
Boise State's philosophy is different from Penn State's Pickett-centric system that has plagued Northwestern the last few weeks, but they have the potential to wreak the same amount of havoc. Northwestern's defense has been legendary this season, but it is predicated on trapping post-ups and forcing teams to make their open threes.
The Broncos' post-ups will be rare, but their threes will be plentiful. They shot 36.5% from beyond the arc this season, good enough for 63rd in Division I. How Northwestern manages its size against Boise State will be what swings this game.
The Wildcats went to a smaller Boo Buie-Ty Berry-Chase Audige-Brooks Barnhizer-Beran lineup down the stretch against Penn State and clawed back to force overtime. Whether they try to match Boise State's smaller lineup and force the Broncos to create space against Big Ten athletes, or if they try to overwhelm the Broncos in the paint and on the glass with Beran, Nicholson and Tydus Verhoeven, will be up to head coach Chris Collins.
Northwestern may be the power conference school in this matchup, but don't let the geography or conference prestige fool you. Boise State has had a great year under head coach Leon Rice, making it to consecutive NCAA Tournaments for the first time since 1993-94. Their season has had more highs than lows.
Here are some of the Broncos big games this year in both directions:
Even though the Broncos aren't from one of the six power conferences, they still have proved their mettle plenty of times. It's been a long time since December, but a win over 7-seed Texas A&M remains a solid pillar of their resume. Boise State held their own in a tough Mountain West that is sending four teams to the Big Dance: BSU, Nevada, San Diego State and Utah State.
The Broncos struggled down the stretch this season, and especially struggled away from home. Their 10-point loss to Utah State was their second double-digit loss to the Aggies within a week; they dropped their regular season matchup on the road by 13.
The same home-and-away disparity played out against San Diego State, when the Broncos pulled off the upset at home but got blown out in San Diego. Boise State boasted an elite 14-1 record at home, but played .500 ball on the road to the tune of a 6-6 away record.
Northwestern would be a case study for throwing stones from a glass house if they took the pair of losses to Utah State in the final games of the year as a welcoming sign when their own losses to Penn State are dangerously close in the rearview mirror, but Boise's road struggles are a place where the Wildcats have a clear leg up.
Boise State has not delivered a quality win away from its namesake hometown since their neutral site (albeit in Fort Worth, Tex.) win over Texas A&M four months ago. They did bank a couple of wins over middle-of-the-pack Pac-12 teams Colorado and Washington State in neutral site matchups, but their record outside of their home territory is sketchy at best.
Northwestern was excellent on the road this season in an especially hostile conference campaign, finishing 7-4 on the road, one of only two Big Ten teams with a road record above .500. The Cats won at Indiana and Michigan State this season, where the home teams were a combined 27-4.
The equation of the stadium atmosphere will be a mixed bag, and could go in a couple different directions. Northwestern has a substantial alumni base in Los Angeles and throughout California that will be delighted to see their team's second-ever tournament berth in person. Boise is still a ways away with an 8-plus hour drive, but that's far better than the multi-day trek from Evanston. Throw in blue-blood UCLA playing in-state to gobble up tickets the atmosphere could skew towards truly neutral-site and not the virtual home-court advantage the Wildcats enjoyed in Salt Lake City in 2017.
They won't have the Wildside out in full force cheering them on, but playing this game anywhere but Boise is a win for Northwestern.
This game will boil down to three things: can Boise State avoid turning into a pumpkin away from home? Can Northwestern's size make a difference without sacrificing the three-point line? And, what seems to be a question in every game, can someone other than Buie score for the Wildcats?
