Published Oct 28, 2022
Fearless Forecast: Northwestern vs. Iowa
Staff
WildcatReport.com

Iowa comes into Saturday's game against Northwestern on a three-game losing streak. The reeling Hawkeyes haven't won a game in more than a month.

Northwestern says, hold my beer. The Wildcats are on a six-game slide and haven't claimed a victory since Aug. 27, a span of more than 60 days.

This will be the 17th time that head coaches Kirk Ferentz's and Pat Fitzgerald's teams have played each other. We're not anticipating that this one will be a classic.

The good news is, someone has to win. So who will it be?

Will Northwestern upset Iowa and win at Kinnick Stadium for the fourth straight time? Or will the Hawkeyes make it two in a row over the Wildcats after beating them in Evanston last year?

Our staff weighs in with their takes.


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Matthew Shelton (3-4)

My take: There’s a world where neither offense scores a touchdown. Northwestern enters this game with the 118th scoring offense, Iowa ranks a dismal 128th. Both teams have started to look elsewhere for a spark at quarterback, with mixed results. The Hawkeyes gave backup quarterback Alex Padilla some snaps against Ohio State, but he was unable to elevate the Iowa offense against the second-ranked Buckeyes. For Northwestern, Brendan Sullivan showed a spark against Maryland but mistakes down the stretch cost Northwestern the early lead that Sullivan helped build.

Beating Iowa this year requires overwhelming talent, or precision and patience. This game will likely be swung by grinding out field position and then forcing a turnover deep in opponent territory to set up a field goal, a no-brainer touchdown, or taking the turnover all the way back for points. Sullivan's pair of picks down the stretch against the Terrapins leaves me doubtful that he can crack an Iowa defense that is much better than their 3-4 record, and Northwestern's defense can't match the Hawkeye hunger for turnovers.

Fearless forecast: Iowa 17 Northwestern 10


Luke Slabaugh (3-4)

My take: Someone has to win Saturday, right?

I've said all I need to say about NU this season. There's always something. It's a lack of preparation, bad technique, etc. When the offense clicks, it isn't enough to bail out the defense - as in last week's loss at Maryland. The Wildcats have had a grim season. The performances have felt more like a hobby than a vocation, eh, Louie?

From the outside looking in, Iowa appears to be in the midst of an awkward, clunky downward spiral. The fury of its fanbase ignited further after a 54-10 thrashing at the hands of Ohio State, the best team in the country. Kirk Ferentz is talking smack on reporters just for funsies. He turned the Hawkeyes' offense into a family business and his son filed for bankruptcy. Iowa averages 3.9 yards per play, third-worst among FBS teams. They're a tick worse at Kinnick Stadium. Yes, it's a swan dive. A Tommen Baratheon in slow motion. Northwestern should win this game, Swiss cheese defense and all.

But how? It appears dual-threat quarterback Brendan Sullivan has let NU open up the playbook on offense in a way that Ryan Hilinski couldn't. Sullivan isn't *there* yet; there will be mistakes on Saturday and hopefully not costly ones. However, I'd love to see some designed runs for him to complement Evan Hull, who had a solid day at Maryland. (I wish I'd made it out to College Park. There were touchdowns.) And one of Donny Navarro, Bryce Kirtz or Malik Washington will be good for a deep ball. That might be all it takes.

In the interest of full transparency, this game is the last time I'm picking Northwestern to win unless some drastic improvement happens in the next few weeks. The hobby has been rough.

Fearless forecast: Northwestern 13 Iowa 10


Louie Vaccher (3-4)

My take: This is going to be the kind of game that sets offensive football back 50 years. It may take three plays to generate three yards and a cloud of dust.

There's a reason the over/under is a measly 37.5 points. My advice: take the under.

Northwestern’s offense doesn't stand much of a chance of moving the ball consistently against a fierce Iowa defense that's ranked sixth in the country. Iowa's offense, meanwhile, is dead-last in the nation in yards. The Hawkeyes turned the ball over six times and were outscored by their own defense last week against Ohio State.

So it's probably going to come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes. That doesn't bode well for the Wildcats. They rank 126th in the nation in turnover margin at -8 and have a new redshirt freshman quarterback in Brendan Sullivan making his second career start. That’s not a good combination for the guys in white.

I think the Hawkeyes will win the turnover battle and may come up with a defensive score. Iowa’s anemic offense might even make a big play or two against a Northwestern D that tends to give them up all too often.

What does Las Vegas think of the Wildcats? They have made them 10.5-point underdogs against a team that scores 14 points per game.

Fearless forecast: Iowa 16 Northwestern 9