Published Nov 22, 2024
Fearless Forecast: Northwestern vs. Michigan
Staff
WildcatReport.com

Northwestern travels to Ann Arbor on Saturday to take on the Michigan Wolverines, a team they haven't beaten since 2008.

Both teams are looking to get back on track with just two wins in their last six Big Ten games. And, with just two games remaining, both teams want to keep their bowl chances alive.

Northwestern has four wins and needs a fifth to get a good chance on Academic Progress Rate should the bowl games run short of 6-6 teams, Michigan has five and is looking for their sixth with a vengeful Ohio State as their lone remaining game.

The two teams have been far from lighting up the scoreboard this season. Michigan is 118th in points per game and 129th in yards per game. Both marks are the best in this game, though, as Northwestern ranks 126th in points and 130th in yards per game.

In other words, points, like parking in Ann Arbor, will be at a premium.

Both teams have started multiple quarterbacks this season. The Wildcats opted for redshirt sophomore Jack Lausch after Week 2 and he has started since, whereas the Wolverines have cycled through three different quarterbacks, going back to Davis Warren for the past three games.

Northwestern is 2-2 on the road this season, but 0-2 at stadiums that seat more than 65,000 fans. The Big House, with a capacity of 107,601, certainly has that.

Will Northwestern notch just its second win at Michigan Stadium since 1995? Or will the Wolverines win their eight straight game against the Wildcats?

Our staff weighs in with their picks.

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Matt Shelton (7-3)

Maybe Michigan will be too busy admiring their recruiting coup in flipping Bryce Underwood from LSU and planning ahead for The Game vs. OSU to get up for this game, but I don't think that will be the case. The Wolverines' offense has sluggishly matched Northwestern's output this season, but they've done it with four ranked opponents, three in the Top 10, while the Cats have done it against just two ranked opponents, albeit both in the Top 5.

Even in a down year, as head coach Sherrone Moore finds his footing at the helm, the Wolverines have too much talent in the trenches on both sides of the ball to overcome. The Wildcats are 3-2 when Lausch throws for 100+ yards in a game, yet 3-5 with him as a starter. He hasn't thrown for 100+ in three straight games yet, and the Wolverines have the size and skill up front and on the perimeter to bring the house down on him.

The Wildcats showed some moxie early vs. Ohio State, and I think they keep this game close and even cover the 12.5-point spread. But I think they come up short of the upset.

Fearless Forecast: Michigan 24, Northwestern 14

Louie Vaccher (9-1)

This is a winnable game for Northwestern. The question is if they can avoid the types of mistakes that have plagued them throughout the year, like penalties, negative plays and, just last week against Ohio State, sailing snaps over the punter’s head.

These teams are remarkably similar, with offenses that struggle to score, inconsistent quarterback play and good defenses. Whichever team takes care of the football (Michigan is -5 in turnover margin this season, NU +1) will likely win the game.

But there are three factors that tip the scales in Michigan's favor. For one, Northwestern is 2-22 at the Big House since 1960; the place is a house of horrors for the Wildcat program. Two, Michigan, in addition to having more overall talent, has a superior ground game, which will be critical in a tight, low-scoring game like I expect it to be. And finally, the Wolverines have a pair of helmet splitters up front in defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, who will wreak havoc on the perpetually shaky interior of Northwestern's O-line that currently features a true freshman guard and a backup center.

I’ll take Northwestern with the points but Michigan outright.

Fearless Forecast: Michigan 17, Northwestern 13