With a 1-3 record, Northwestern needs a win on Saturday at Iowa as badly as Donald Trump needs to stay off of Twitter.
Just a few years ago, Northwestern had the upper hand in this series. But Iowa has taken the last three in a row, the last two in convincing fashion by the combined count of 88-17.
Will the Wildcats rebound to keep their dim bowl dreams alive? Or will Iowa saddle them with an 0-2 conference mark for the first time since 2013?
Football writers Louie Vaccher and Macray Poidomani talk about the matchup and offer their predictions.
Louie: Well, Macray, here we are again, picking up the pieces after another Northwestern loss and trying to find a silver lining on a funnel cloud. The Cats are having glaring problems in all three phases right now.
Despite an uptick in the passing game the last couple weeks, the offense is still averaging just 16.5 points per game, worst in the Big Ten. The defense is last in the conference in yards allowed, at 435.0 per game. And now, they can’t rely on their kicker, who missed a 27-yard field goal and an extra point last week and is 1-for-4 on the season.
Other than that, they are rock-solid.
I guess if I had to find a reason for optimism it is Thorson. He has thrown for 569 yards and four touchdowns over the last two weeks. Of course, he’s also thrown four interceptions, including a very bad one in the red zone last week. But if he can cut down on the picks and defenses continue to stack the box against them to zero in on Justin Jackson, Thorson’s development is a major positive for an offense that desperately needs a spark. Thorson has also found a favorite receiver in former walkon Austin Carr, who leads the Big Ten in catches and yards.
What do you see on the defensive side of the ball?
Macray: You're right in that Thorson has found a favorite target. Austin Carr has been one of the few bright spots for Northwestern this year and he's been an absolute job to watch. My concern is because of his emergence, he will start to see double coverage and then Northwestern's passing offense will be officially out of options. If that indeed does happen, maybe Justin Jackson will start to get some running lanes.
In terms of offense, I do want to point out that the playcalling was slightly better last week. The offensive performance still leaves so much to be desired, but at least Jackson was seeing some different looks and the passing offense looks like it is starting to get some momentum. That being said, what would you say this offense's identity is? It's not exactly an air raid and it doesn't have the beef up front to be ground and pound. It isn't creative like in the past, so it isn't going to beat people schematically. I feel like the whole offense can't move forward until it figures out what it wants to be.
What are your feelings on the defense? I have been thoroughly impressed with Jaylen Prater this season. In a tough year with injuries, he has certainly stepped up and provided a spark to a depleted unit. How do you think they matchup against Iowa?
Louie: I'm not sure what the offense's identity is, either. But whatever it is they should change it because it isn't working.
I actually think Iowa is a pretty good matchup for the Cats. There are no secrets about Iowa: they want to run the ball. And while C.J. Beathard is a dynamic quarterback, the Hawkeyes don't have any deep threats that scare you. That's good news for Northwestern's depleted secondary. His favorite target, Matt VandeBerg, is now out for the season. Iowa's offense looked anemic the last two weeks, especially against Rutgers in an ugly 14-7 win. The game plan is simple: contain Iowa's running game and force Beathard & Co. to beat you through the air.
So what's the bottom line, here, Macray? What do you think the keys will be on Saturday, and do you think the Cats can pull off the upset to keep their barely recognizable bowl hopes alive?
Macray: I agree that there is no mystery what the Hawkeyes will do to the Cats defensively. By loading the box they will likely render Jackson to be a non-factor. Moreover, Iowa's star corner Desmond King will limit Carr's effectiveness. Therefore it will be up to the secondary targets, specifically Flynn Nagel, Macan Wilson and Solomon Vault, to move the ball against Iowa. Thorson's ability to spread the ball to his secondary receivers and the offensive line's ability to give him time are the offensive keys to this game.
On the defensive side, you mentioned it already: Iowa wants to run the ball. This plays right into the (somewhat) strength of Northwestern's defense. I expect Prater to continue his strong play and I think we should see Anthony Walker closer to his usual strength. I honestly believe that this NU defense could hold this Iowa team to under 21 points. If they do that, they win this game. That doesn't mean they will though.
As for predictions, I think that Iowa will end up winning due to Northwestern's inability to sustain drives on offense. Iowa will struggle to score initially, but they'll wear the defense out and will add a bunch of scores late. Pick: Iowa 28 Northwestern 14.
Louie: Even though you’re 0-3 on the year with your picks, I’m siding with you on this one. I think the defense will hold Iowa to a manageable number. As you pointed out, the Cats should be able to contain a running team. I just don’t have confidence that Northwestern's offense will be able to match it.
Thorson has shown marked improvement the last couple weeks, but I don’t think he can carry the team with the passing game alone. Plus, he’s still prone to mistakes. So Northwestern desperately needs to find its sleeping running game and improve greatly in the red zone. The Cats are currently last in the Big Ten after scoring points on just 3-of-7 chances (yep, just seven chances in four games!). Plus, they can’t depend on kicking a field goal anymore, either. Pick: Iowa 20 Northwestern 15.
